CA: Field Research Corporation: Boxer consolidates her lead

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: California Senator by Field Research Corporation on 2010-09-21

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, I: 0%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

I´m slightly getting more optimistic about the Democrats chances of holding the Senate.

With Boxer and Murray now in better shape against their opponents, Democrats might now focus more on dragging down Angle, Buck, Kirk and Toomey.

And if that is done, they even might be able to pull Feingold out of the mess.

Manchin and Gillibrand haven´t been much on the air lately and they still enjoy a huge financial advantage over their opponents. I think both of them will win in the end.

...

In the Governor races, Democrats might also hold the Republican to just a 5-point net gain if they somehow manage to win their races and in Georgia.

If they win the big prizes of CA and FL, the elections are not looking so bad after all.

...

And looking at the House, the individual races have also become better lately.

We´ll see ...

[Eraserhead]

Fiornia is trailing by 6% among independents and only trailing by that amount overall? This must be another really Republican sample.

Personally, I'm thinking she better break out the checkbook big time because the fat lady may be getting ready to clear her throat.

[Ogre Mage]

Once Boxer started hammering away at Fiorina's huge vulnerabilities, I was 99% certain that Fiorina's numbers would not hold up.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Fiornia is trailing by 6% among independents and only trailing by that amount overall? This must be another really Republican sample.

Personally, I'm thinking she better break out the checkbook big time because the fat lady may be getting ready to clear her throat.

     Working it out in my head, that roughly translates to 37-33-30 D-R-I (assuming each candidate is winning equal proportions of their party, which would be difficult to check on this computer), which is definitely too Republican a sample, though not as bad a deviation from the norm as the PPP poll a while back having 49-32-18.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

While most Boxer voters are voting FOR her, 2/3rds of the Fiornia voters are voting AGAINST Boxer. I think the more people find out about Fiornia, the worse she is going to do. She offshored 30,000 jobs, greatly hurting the quality of HP, and then got fired, getting a $21 million golden parachute unlike those 30,000 pawns.

[sg0508]

Again, very simple...the Democrats are coming home in the end just as I predicted from day 1.  This is an exact copy of 1998.  In the end, the race won't be that tight.

[DrScholl]

Fiorina was able to be generic Republican for awhile, but with just weeks left, that has faded.

[sg0508]

Fiorina was able to be generic Republican for awhile, but with just weeks left, that has faded.

That and Boxer is now using the "too conservative for CA" deal, which works every time. Then again, when you have 3 million illegals in that state for only political purposes, it's not hard, but that's another story.

[Ronnie]

Is this race becoming hopeless?  Sigh.

[Torie]

Is this race becoming hopeless?  Sigh.

Boxer has been dominating the air waves. Fiorina is just starting her counter volley. But it is a tough race, and we knew long ago, that Fiorina had issues.  Still, all the pollsters are struggling with turnout models, which are really tough to project this year. Fiorina needs to push hard to remind folks that Boxer is probably one of the most fiscally irresponsible persons to ever sit in the Senate. Boxer needs in short to be demonized as a hard Leftie whom we just can't afford anymore.

[redcommander]

Is this race becoming hopeless?  Sigh.

Boxer is only at 47 and people are writing this off? I could see the argument for Murray pulling away, but Boxer isn't above 50%. Fiorina has a very good chance still.

[ucscgaldamez]

My family, latino democrats, are barely catching up to the fact that we are having an election in November. They saw the Boxer ads. Many have called and said, "Boxer is up for reelection?" Duh. They like her a lot. They like Boxer and are just now waking up and saying, "who the hell is this Carly Fiorina?"

Just an anecdote. But I know a lot of people that just get interested towards the end.

Boxer will pull this one out. I project a 53-46 win.

[Psychic Octopus]

I wouldn't call either Washington or California "lost." I haven't seen anything from Carly yet, and will reserve judgement until I do. Boxer, though, has put out some very effective ads.

[Sbane]

Is this race becoming hopeless?  Sigh.

Boxer is only at 47 and people are writing this off? I could see the argument for Murray pulling away, but Boxer isn't above 50%. Fiorina has a very good chance still.

I think Rossi has a better chance of winning than Fiorina. California is a much more Democratic state and Boxer knows how to win. As long as she can pull out decent numbers from the moderate areas around LA, she should win.

[Torie]

Is this race becoming hopeless?  Sigh.

Boxer is only at 47 and people are writing this off? I could see the argument for Murray pulling away, but Boxer isn't above 50%. Fiorina has a very good chance still.

I think Rossi has a better chance of winning than Fiorina. California is a much more Democratic state and Boxer knows how to win. As long as she can pull out decent numbers from the moderate areas around LA, she should win.

Yes, I agree. The thing is, is that I suspect most of those undecided blacks and Hispanics in the polls will come home to Boxer. Fiorina is not getting a big enough chunk of moderate voters. But then, so far Fiorina's  message has been generalist pablum. She will need to take some risks, to give voters a  more compelling reason to vote for her, which may of course, remind voters why they generally don't vote for Republicans. It will take a lot of skill, and so far, Fiorina has not shown any exemplary qualities in that regard. Whitman has a plan - which she is rolling out step by step with tons of money.  Fiorina appears not to, and of course lacks the money.

[The Duke]

It's over.  I'm amazed people thought she would win.

[redcommander]

It's over.  I'm amazed people thought she would win.

We still have over a month for her to turn it around.

[SpiroT.Agnew]

It's over.  I'm amazed people thought she would win.

I could see the race getting a little closer but i'm afraid your probaly right, I think I'll write this one off as well. Too bad.

[Franzl]

Is this race becoming hopeless?  Sigh.

Boxer is only at 47 and people are writing this off? I could see the argument for Murray pulling away, but Boxer isn't above 50%. Fiorina has a very good chance still.

I think Rossi has a better chance of winning than Fiorina. California is a much more Democratic state and Boxer knows how to win. As long as she can pull out decent numbers from the moderate areas around LA, she should win.

Yes, I agree. The thing is, is that I suspect most of those undecided blacks and Hispanics in the polls will come home to Boxer. Fiorina is not getting a big enough chunk of moderate voters. But then, so far Fiorina's  message has been generalist pablum. She will need to take some risks, to give voters a  more compelling reason to vote for her, which may of course, remind voters why they generally don't vote for Republicans. It will take a lot of skill, and so far, Fiorina has not shown any exemplary qualities in that regard. Whitman has a plan - which she is rolling out step by step with tons of money.  Fiorina appears not to, and of course lacks the money.

Are you voting for Fiorina, Torie? If I voted in California, I'd legitimately be undecided at this point. I don't think Fiorina is as bad as a lot of people are saying, but I don't really like her.

Shame you couldn't nominate Campbell.

[Zarn]

I don't like Fiorina but six more years of Boxer (ultra-partisan and rude) is hard to swallow.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't like Fiorina but six more years of Boxer (ultra-partisan and rude) is hard to swallow.

Fiorina wouldn't be any different.

[Ogre Mage]

I never considered Fiorina a serious threat, even when the polls showed her running even with Boxer.  Her candidate biography has glaringly exploitable flaws and because she has tacked so far to the right (while Boxer remains far left), it has turned into a war of the bases.  Fiorina is not going to win that battle in CA.  Perhaps she incorrectly thought the liberal base in the state would stay asleep due to the poor political environment for Democrats nationally. 

In this environment I do think Boxer is potentially beatable.  But not by Fiorina.