Advertising Notes - Where the Dems and Reps are Putting Their Money
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  Advertising Notes - Where the Dems and Reps are Putting Their Money
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Author Topic: Advertising Notes - Where the Dems and Reps are Putting Their Money  (Read 13306 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: September 22, 2010, 10:08:03 PM »
« edited: September 24, 2010, 11:06:09 AM by Sam Spade »

I want to put all of these notes together.

Where the various committees (NRCC, DCCC, DSCC, NRSC) are sometimes the best ways for us to notice where vulnerability lies in the absence of polls. 

Post all new relevant information here.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2010, 05:59:00 AM »

The National Republican Senatorial Committee will launch ads in the West Virginia Senate race today, a seven-figure expenditure that strongly suggests the party thinks they can pull off an upset in the Mountain State.

The commercial goes directly at Gov. Joe Manchin (D) -- arguing that the governor "supports Barack Obama's big government agenda" on big ticket items like the economic stimulus package and the health care law.

"Big spending, more government and less freedom...we don't want a rubber stamp for Obama," says the ad's narrator. "We can't afford Joe Manchin in Washington."

The ad will cost the NRSC roughly $1.2 million and will run statewide -- including in the pricey Washington, D.C. media market -- for two weeks, according to sources familiar with the buy.

Republicans have been hinting for the last several weeks that the race between Manchin, a popular second term governor, and wealthy businessman John Raese was surprisingly competitive.

A PPP poll, which conducts its survey using automated rather than live callers, released earlier this week  put Raese at 46 percent to 43 percent for Manchin. And, Democrats acknowledge privately that the deep unpopularity of President Obama as well as his major policy initiatives like health care were making it a tougher than expected race for Manchin.

That the NRSC is willing to put its money where its mouth is puts Senate Democrats in an interesting spot. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a number of endangered incumbents they need to protect in places like Colorado, Wisconsin, California and Nevada -- but also can't afford to ignore a seat like West Virginia where they have a top-tier candidate in a winnable race.

Does the DSCC respond with ads hitting Raese? Or let Manchin handle it on his own?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbElTuHnM2M

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/senate-republican-launch-ad-in.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2010, 06:00:08 AM »

Good to know that Manchin is pronounced like "Men-sch-yn" in the US.

I always thought it´s pronounced like "Man-kin" ... Tongue
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Rowan
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2010, 06:03:12 AM »

Good to know that Manchin is pronounced like "Men-sch-yn" in the US.

I always thought it´s pronounced like "Man-kin" ... Tongue

I thought it was "Man-chin".
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2010, 07:10:16 AM »

The obvious card for Manchin to play is the Byrd card. Put together an ad with Byrd's family members saying "blah blah blah, my [father/grandfather/uncle/second cousin once removed] Robert Byrd served West Virginia for years, and Joe Manchin is the man to continue his legacy".
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2010, 07:19:02 AM »

Smart move by the NRSC. I really think that this one is going to go Republican in November. Manchin looks good now, but he could have a glass jaw—no one has ever tried swinging at it before.

The obvious card for Manchin to play is the Byrd card. Put together an ad with Byrd's family members saying "blah blah blah, my [father/grandfather/uncle/second cousin once removed] Robert Byrd served West Virginia for years, and Joe Manchin is the man to continue his legacy".

"It's not the Kennedy Byrd seat. It's the peoples' seat."
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2010, 07:27:13 AM »

Smart move by the NRSC. I really think that this one is going to go Republican in November. Manchin looks good now, but he could have a glass jaw—no one has ever tried swinging at it before.

The obvious card for Manchin to play is the Byrd card. Put together an ad with Byrd's family members saying "blah blah blah, my [father/grandfather/uncle/second cousin once removed] Robert Byrd served West Virginia for years, and Joe Manchin is the man to continue his legacy".

"It's not the Kennedy Byrd seat. It's the peoples' seat."

"68% of likely voters in this fall’s election approve of the work Byrd did in the Senate, and 52% want his successor—Manchin or Raese—to continue his legacy." Also, Massachusetts != West Virginia. If anything, it's more like PA-12, where Burns' anti-Murtha ad hurt him.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2010, 07:29:35 AM »

I never thought this one would be close, but less possible.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2010, 09:09:13 AM »

I would think that Critz's success in PA-12 earlier this year would show the limits of this strategy in Appalachia. But we'll see; a mid-term election has a bigger pool of voters than a special election.
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2010, 09:15:30 AM »

I never thought this one would be close, but less possible.

Yeah, I'm surprised and happy about this development.

Good to know that Manchin is pronounced like "Men-sch-yn" in the US.

I always thought it´s pronounced like "Man-kin" ... Tongue

I thought it was "Man-chin".
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2010, 09:30:58 AM »

I think Manchin can handle it himself for the most part. Outside influences don't play well in some states and Manchin would be better off localizing while the Republicans bring in outside help and go national.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2010, 11:10:17 AM »

NRCC expands TV ad buys...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42669.html

Districts Noted
MA-10
MO-4
NM-1
PA-10*
WA-3*
WI-8

Noted in this article is:
1) NRCC recently began advertising in NC-7 and VA-9
2) NRCC will be polling 15 more CDs to find potential vulnerability, including MS-4
3) NRCC is becoming increasingly interested in NC-7 and NC-11
4) Sessions is going to campaign for Koster in WA-2 (don't see how that impacts any).
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2010, 11:29:13 AM »

Given the current state of Massachusetts polling, seeing MA-10 on that list is no surprise. Independents (unenrolleds) are going GOP by about 2:1 here this year in the down ballot polling I've seen.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2010, 12:06:03 PM »

I think Manchin can handle it himself for the most part. Outside influences don't play well in some states and Manchin would be better off localizing while the Republicans bring in outside help and go national.
So WV Sen = PA-12 special election from earlier this year? Tongue
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Vepres
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2010, 07:54:05 PM »

I would think that Critz's success in PA-12 earlier this year would show the limits of this strategy in Appalachia. But we'll see; a mid-term election has a bigger pool of voters than a special election.

It's easier to focus on local issues in a House race than a Senate race.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2010, 10:38:23 PM »

Wasn't mentioned here, but I should note that a couple of days ago DSCC threw about a million dollars in ads as follows:

CO-Sen:  $335,000
IL-Sen:  $235,000
PA-Sen:  $470,000

Folks on this site haven't really been following this either, but this now makes close to $3 million that the DSCC has thrown at PA in the last six weeks.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2010, 12:34:54 AM »

Wasn't mentioned here, but I should note that a couple of days ago DSCC threw about a million dollars in ads as follows:

CO-Sen:  $335,000
IL-Sen:  $235,000
PA-Sen:  $470,000

Folks on this site haven't really been following this either, but this now makes close to $3 million that the DSCC has thrown at PA in the last six weeks.

$3 Million? Wow, and Toomey's lead hasn't even been dented by it, staying between 5 and 8 points. Has PA become for the Dems what is used to be for Republicans? A money waister?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2010, 09:55:50 AM »

I would think that Critz's success in PA-12 earlier this year would show the limits of this strategy in Appalachia. But we'll see; a mid-term election has a bigger pool of voters than a special election.

It's easier to focus on local issues in a House race than a Senate race.

Well, but, we're not really seeing that distinction in House polling so far. And West Virginia is a small enough state with a homogeneous enough economy, and Manchin has a record of dealing with local issues that Critz didn't, that he should have a leg up in doing so.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2010, 07:54:17 PM »

As noted earlier, DSCC is buying $400K in West Virginia.  More strangely, $165,000 in airtime has been bought for Delaware.
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Beet
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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2010, 07:55:52 PM »

As noted earlier, DSCC is buying $400K in West Virginia.  More strangely, $165,000 in airtime has been bought for Delaware.

Good. They can't take that one for granted.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2010, 09:05:09 PM »

They've already been running ads in the Salisbury media market, which includes Sussex County.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2010, 06:04:56 PM »

NRSC threw another $100K in media at WV and $415K at CO.

Meanwhile, DSCC is cutting another ad in DE, costing $12.5K.

As for DCCC - we get these 22 new buys:

WI-7 (open, Obey): $92,000 in ads and $14,000 in mailers against Sean Duffy, R.
VA-11 (Connolly): $19,000 for mailers against Keith Fimian, R.
VA-2 (Nye): $120,000 for ads against Scott Rigell, R.
SC-5 (Spratt): $146,000 for ads against Mick Mulvaney, R.
PA-11 (Kanjorski): $104,000 for ads against Lou Barletta, R.
PA-3 (Dahlkemper): $39,000 for ads against George “Mike” Kelly, R.
OH-16 (Boccieri): $182,000 for ads against James Renacci, R.
OH-13 (Sutton): $85,000 for ads against Tom Ganley, R.
NY-24 (Arcuri): $15,000 for ads against Richard Hanna, R.
NC-8 (Kissell): $189,000 for ads against Harold Johnson, R.
MS-1 (Childers): $43,000 for ads against Alan Nunnelee, R.
MO-4 (Skelton): $69,000 for ads against Vicky Jo Hartzler, R.
MI-7 (Schauer): $67,000 for ads against Tim Walberg, R.
MI-1 (open, Stupak): $165,000 for ads against Dan Benishek, R.
MD-1 (Kratovil): $36,000 for ads against Andy Harris, R.
IL-14 (Foster): $62,000 for ads and $15,000 for mailers against Randy Hultgren, R.
IL-10 (open, Kirk): $78,000 for ads and $26,000 for mailers against Robert Dold, R.
IA-3 (Boswell): $83,000 in ads against Brad Zaun, R.
GA-2 (S. Bishop): $59,000 in ads against Michael Keown, R.
AZ-5 (Mitchell): $46,000 in ads against Dave Schweikert, R.
AR-1 (open, Snyder): $29,000 for ads against Rick Crawford, R.
WV-1 (open, Mollohan): $103,000 against David McKinley, R.
AL-2 (Bright): $176,000 against Martha Roby, R.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2010, 06:31:00 PM »

Is there some way to browse these independent expenditures?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2010, 06:38:16 PM »

Is there some way to browse these independent expenditures?

There's a site, I think, but I forget where.  CQ used to run a free one, but I don't think it's free anymore.

I pulled today's House buys from Washington Examiner.  GOP partisans to the core, but I see nothing to refute the information.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2010, 08:14:22 PM »

Huge props to Sam for organizing this thread -- this is immensely useful information for prognostication.
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