Advertising Notes - Where the Dems and Reps are Putting Their Money

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Is there something in the polling that I'm missing?  Or was his debate performance that bad?

Well ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jkU3RSfDGE

[Brittain33]

DCCC has canceled everything but the last week of ads in AZ-08. No idea what to make of that; if Giffords is toast, why keep any ads at all?

Giffords has a ridiculous amount of money to spend on herself. It would be reasonable for the DCCC to spend money elsewhere where it's better needed.

Either that, or Arizona's going to have 2 Dem congressmen next year.

[cinyc]

Per Politico, the NRCC plans to borrow $6.5 million and spend a total of $45 million, expanding ad buys into 7 new districts (total: 62).  Five of those districts are those held by Reps. Tim Walz of Minnesota, Sanford Bishop of Georgia, Phil Hare of Illinois, Zack Space of Ohio and John Salazar of Colorado. 

[Sam Spade]

Latest DSCC spending

CO-SEN (Bennet): $700,000 for television ads against Ken Buck, R.
IL-SEN (open, Burris): $759,000 for television ads against Mark Kirk, R.
KY-SEN (open, Bunning): $269,000 for television ads and $56,000 for radio ads against Rand Paul, R.
MO-SEN (open, Bond): $335,000 for television ads against Roy Blunt, R.
PA-SEN (open, Specter): $721,000 for television ads against Pat Toomey, R.
WA-SEN (Murray): $389,000 for television ads against Dino Rossi, R.
WV-SEN: (open, Goodwin) $585,000 for television ads against John Raese, R.
DE-SEN (open, Kaufmann): $170,000 for television ads against Christine O’Donnell, R.

[tpfkaw]

Is that spending in addition to what they already are, or changes in the planned level of spending?

[Sam Spade]

Is that spending in addition to what they already are, or changes in the planned level of spending?

Latest campaign disclosures - this is money actually being spent in addition to any planned reservations in the future (most of which have not occurred yet).

[Sam Spade]

DSCC cancelled their ad buy in MO-Sen over the next two weeks.  Never understood why they spent $2.5 million there in the first place.

[cinyc]

Not exactly the Dems and Reps, but per Politico, third-party groups friendly to Republicans are expected to spend $12 million on House races from September 30 through the election.  In particular:

1) The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and 60 Plus Association will spend at least $1.7 million by the end of next week battering Reps. Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson in the Orlando area.

2) A bunch of groups are expected to spend over $500,000 in the Erie, PA market against Rep. Dahlkemper.

3) American Future Fund has taken out a $455,000 cable and broadcast against Rep. Hare in Illinois.

4) Revere America, Family Research Council, and Americans for Prosperity, among others, are expected to spend about another $500,000 versus Rep. Shea-Porter in New Hampshire.  In particular, George Pataki's Revere America will spend another $400,000 on top of $327,000 already spent.

5) Concerned Taxpayers of America made a $30,000 buy and the American Society of Anesthesiologists a $27,000 buy against Rep. Kratovil in Maryland.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce launched an ad buy against Blumenthal in Connecticut, though it won't tell the Hartford Courant how much it is spending there - just that it's "significant".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DCCC pulls out of OH-01, which they should have done a long time ago, really.

[cinyc]

Per the New York Times, the Democrats are pulling at least some funding for ads in FL-24 (Kosmas) and PA-03 (Dahlkamper).  

Also: "the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has increased its spending on two New York races, along with at-risk seats in Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky and Massachusetts, setting up a map of competitive districts that is starkly different from when the campaign began. "  It's not clear from the article which exact districts are getting additional funding.

Republicans are "making new investments" in "at least 10 races", including into defeating Democratic incumbents in OH-06 (Wilson) and OH-18 (Space).  ($350,000 in each district)

[Sam Spade]

I thought they had pretty much left FL-24 to begin with (unless I missed something).

[Sam Spade]

Another predictable call:  DCCC has pulled its ads from AR-2 for October 19-25, but still not for the last week (though I assume that's coming).

http://talkbusiness.net/article/DCCC-CANCELS-WEEK-OF-TV-IN-LR-MARKET/983/

[cinyc]

I thought they had pretty much left FL-24 to begin with (unless I missed something).

I doubt you missed something.  The New York Times, on the other hand...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like Tom Ganley is giving up in OH-13.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Large outlay by the NRCC.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

More pruning by the DCCC. Giving up on holding KS-03, IN-08, and TN-08. Also some cutbacks in Charlotte, either for NC-08 or SC-05. Also mentions "minor" adjustments in AR-01, CO-04, IA-03, SD-AL, TX-17, and Phoenix (AZ-01/AZ-05). And canceling everything in LA-02, but that's probably because Cao is done for.

[Dgov]

and Phoenix (AZ-01/AZ-05).

Maybe I'm wrong, but does AZ-1 cover any significant portion of the Phoenix area?  It goes into Pinal county, but i don't think that counts (like 50,000 people maximum).

That being said, this move doesn't feel right given that they just released an internal poll showing Harry Mitchel ahead 7 or so in AZ-5.  That's not the kind of race i would bail on right now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Phoenix actually covers nearly all of the state outside of the Tucson area:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media:Tvmarkets.gif

So it's the entire district less the northeastern corner of Apache County, which seems to be in the Albuquerque market.

[cinyc]

Phoenix actually covers nearly all of the state outside of the Tucson area:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media:Tvmarkets.gif

So it's the entire district less the northeastern corner of Apache County, which seems to be in the Albuquerque market.

Yes, the northern half or so of Apache County is in the Albuquerque-Santa Fe market (the exact amount of the county in that DMA varies by source, but virtually nobody lives in the disputed areas, anyway).  They probably got their repeaters from Farmington, NM back in the day before cable and satellites made DMAs more arcane concepts than they were back then.

Yuma is in a separate TV market with El Centro, California.

[cinyc]

More pruning by the DCCC. Giving up on holding KS-03, IN-08, and TN-08. Also some cutbacks in Charlotte, either for NC-08 or SC-05. Also mentions "minor" adjustments in AR-01, CO-04, IA-03, SD-AL, TX-17, and Phoenix (AZ-01/AZ-05). And canceling everything in LA-02, but that's probably because Cao is done for.

The DCCC cut off ad funding for DE-AL, too, according to the Washington Post - probably for the same reason as Cao. 

In addition to what CQ politics listed, funding was also cut in OH-13 (Sutton) due to the Republican candidate's self-implosion, and in open PA-07 (Sestak's open seat) and Republican-held PA-15 (Dent).

[Dgov]

Phoenix actually covers nearly all of the state outside of the Tucson area:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media:Tvmarkets.gif

So it's the entire district less the northeastern corner of Apache County, which seems to be in the Albuquerque market.

Oh.  Weird.

And that map is really crazy in some parts.  Alpine county CA is part of the Los Angeles media market, but western Kern county gets it's own?

[cinyc]

Phoenix actually covers nearly all of the state outside of the Tucson area:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media:Tvmarkets.gif

So it's the entire district less the northeastern corner of Apache County, which seems to be in the Albuquerque market.

Oh.  Weird.

And that map is really crazy in some parts.  Alpine county CA is part of the Los Angeles media market, but western Kern county gets it's own?

Bakersfield.

[Dgov]

Phoenix actually covers nearly all of the state outside of the Tucson area:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media:Tvmarkets.gif

So it's the entire district less the northeastern corner of Apache County, which seems to be in the Albuquerque market.

Oh.  Weird.

And that map is really crazy in some parts.  Alpine county CA is part of the Los Angeles media market, but western Kern county gets it's own?

Bakersfield.

I know, but why is a sparsely populated county in Northern California in the same media market as Orange County?

[cinyc]

I know, but why is a sparsely populated county in Northern California in the same media market as Orange County?

How Nielsen calculates TV market boundaries is very complicated.  I'm not even sure I fully understand it, but I'll give it a shot - and I'm sure some of this will be wrong.  

Basically, every county or area is placed in the TV market for the stations that are, at the time the boundaries are drawn, in the aggregate, most watched.  DMA Boundaries can and do occasionally shift over time.  The first television stations in most of the country were in the larger cities - like Los Angeles, most of whose stations date back to the 1940s.  Smaller cities like Bakersfield didn't get stations until later - often the 1950s.  

In the interim, the bigger city TV stations or local associations put up translators to get their signals out to sparsely populated areas, especially in the west.  Because of that, big city stations were already up on the air in rural areas when smaller cities came on line.  People from Bakersfield were able to watch the Bakersfield stations over-the-air, as far as the signal broadcast.  People from the eastern part of Kern County - say, Ridgecrest, were able to watch the LA feed on the local translator station.  Bakersfield signals may or may not have reached Ridgecrest.  (Note: this is just an example - I'm assuming that the Ridgecrest translators predated the Bakersfield TV stations, which may or may not be correct).   Even today, for example, KCBS can be watched over-the-air in Ridgecrest on translators, according to Wikipedia.

If the Bakersfield (or Las Vegas or Reno or Fresno) signal doesn't make it to Inyo County and whoever owns the closest translator doesn't rebroadcast the Bakersfield stations in Inyo County, the people of Inyo County will likely continue to predominantly watch the Los Angeles stations and the county will remain in the Los Angeles TV market.

Like I said, the DMA boundaries can and do shift - and those boundaries sometimes vary by source.  Nielsen decides the boundaries, but last I checked, doesn't make the data public for free (despite it being referenced in a number of federal laws and regulations).  Any map you see on the Internet is unofficial.  The maps from this source (which I've generally used in my election GIS maps) suggest that Alpine County is in the Reno TV market - which makes more sense geographically.  However, back in the day, when Reno wasn't much of a town, it would have made sense for a behind-the-mountains county like Alpine to get its stations from Los Angeles through translation stations up the line from Ridgecrest.  The San Joaquin Valley stations would have had to somehow get their signals over the Sierra Nevada Mountains - which was likely expensive and would serve relatively few people.  The LA stations likely already had the infrastructure in place to do so.

Generally, county boundaries are respected on the DMA maps, with a few notable exceptions.  Bakersfield is one of them.  Palm Springs and Phoenix/Albuquerque are others.  And then in the east, there's Utica and Syracuse - which is another bizarre story for some other time.

[Sam Spade]

Just as an FYI in the House - this is where the political parties are spending, as of yesterday, according to the reports.  I'll try to keep up with any changes.

GOP Seats
No Spending/Stated Withdrawal (Likely Gone R) 11 Seats
AR-02*
IN-08* (10/8 - NRCC last spending) - DCCC stated withdrawal
KS-03*
LA-03*
NY-29*
FL-24 (10/8 - NRCC last spending) - DCCC stated withdrawal
OH-01 (10/12 - DCCC spent token 25K here) - DCCC stated withdrawal
PA-03 (10/8 - NRCC last spending) - DCCC stated withdrawal
TN-06*
TN-08* (10/7 - NRCC last spending) - DCCC stated withdrawal

NRCC Only (Meaning Lean R/Dem Triage or Lean D/Republican Attack) 14 Seats
CO-04
FL-08
IL-11
MN-01
NC-07
NH-01
NJ-03
NM-01
OH-06
PA-07*
PA-08
SD-AL
TX-17
VA-09

DCCC Only (Meaning D Protection or Lean R/Republican Weakness) 9 Seats
GA-02 (I believe NRCC had planned to spend here, don't see anything on the reports yet)
IA-03
NC-08
NY-23
OH-13 (I suspect this one will be gone after last week's revelations)
OH-15 (the media spending here was 15K, not exactly a major buy)
PA-12
TX-23
VA-11

NRCC/DCCC Both (Battlegrounds) 37 Seats
AL-02
AR-01*
AZ-01
AZ-05
CA-11
CO-03
FL-02 (note no DCCC spending in the last week, NRCC last spending was 10/8)
GA-08 (note no DCCC spending in the last week, NRCC last spending was 10/8)
IL-14
IL-17
IN-02
IN-09
KY-06
MA-10*
MD-01
MI-01*
MI-07
MO-04
MS-01
ND-AL
NH-02*
NM-02
NV-03
NY-20
NY-24
OH-16
OH-18
OR-05
PA-10
PA-11
SC-05
VA-02
VA-05
WA-03*
WI-07*
WI-08
WV-01

DEM Seats
No Spending/Stated Withdrawal (Likely Gone D) 2 Seats
DE-AL*
LA-02

DCCC Only (Meaning Lean D or Lean R/Democratic Attack) 2 Seats
FL-25
HI-01

DCCC/NRCC Both (Battlegrounds 1 Seat
IL-10*