CT State House of Reps analysis, dist. 1-75

District 1: SAFE DEM Incumbent Kenneth Green lost his primary to Hartford City Councilman Matt Ritter by two votes. But who cares? This district is around 70% black. Republicans don't have a prayer.
District 2: TOSSUP Democrats have held this rather conservative district containing Danbury since '06, and a higher Republican turnout will have Rep. Jason Bartlett biting his nails.
District 3: SAFE DEM A Puerto Rican neighborhood in Hartford.
District 4: SAFE DEM Another Puerto Rican neighborhood.
District 5: SAFE DEM The impoverished North End of Hartford.
District 6: SAFE DEM More Puerto Ricans.
District 7: SAFE DEM Black majority.
District 8: LEAN REP (GAIN) Timothy Ackert is running again for the Republicans. With the Obama wave, he lost by 123. This time Rep. Lewis could get swamped.
District 9: LEAN DEM Rojas commands a healthy following in East Hartford, but middle-class Manchester has been going Republican. It would take a significant, but very feasible swing, to beat the Democrats here.
District 10: SAFE DEM Downtown East Hartford. Republicans didn't try at all here in '08.
District 11: SAFE DEM Same as District 10.
District 12: SAFE DEM Downtown Manchester. Democrats may be on the wane in Manchester, but this one's a no-brainer.
District 13: LIKELY DEM Thompson will return to office with a reduced majority but will still win rather comfortably.
District 14: LIKELY REP If the Democrats came 7% short in 2008, the odds are not good that this one will flip.
District 15: SAFE DEM Very large Black population. Hostile territory for Republicans.
District 16: LEAN DEM Schofield won here in 2006, and Heagney still wants his job back. Schofield remains popular, though, and will probably pull it off again.
District 17: LIKELY REP Democrats are fading fast here. The district's biggest Democratic name lost by 900 votes last time.
District 18: SAFE DEM West Hartford is very, very liberal. Large Jewish population here.
District 19: LIKELY DEM Republicans aren't sufficiently organized in West Hartford to complement their strength in Avon and Farmington.
District 20: SAFE DEM More West Hartford, more Jews.
District 21: SAFE DEM Farmington is conservative and wealthy, but they love Giannaros.
District 22: LIKELY DEM This semi-urban district includes bits of Bristol and New Britain with Plainville sandwiched in between. Democrats have lots of traditional strength here, but a Republican might manage 40%.
District 23: LIKELY REP Eileen Baker wants another shot here, but Giuliano is a good fit for her district- moderately conservative. She's quite safe.
District 24: SAFE DEM Tim O'Brien is a huge name in New Britain's politics. No one can knock him off.
District 25: SAFE DEM Downtown New Britain. Significant Hispanic population.
District 26: SAFE DEM Same as District 25.
District 27: LIKELY DEM This district is moderately liberal, but has a strong tradition of electing Democrats. Republicans would need a huge swing to win here.
District 28: LEAN DEM Republicans have been chipping away at Russell Morin's margins for years. They probably won't be able to beat him, but Morin may return to office with a tiny majority.
District 29: SAFE DEM Republicans would be strong contenders here were it not for Tony Guerrera. He has not faced a Republican challenger in years.
District 30: LIKELY DEM Aresimowicz is a former union boss and is a bizarre fit for this suburban district. Republicans might try again after not bothering in '08, but it would take a miracle to beat him.
District 31: LIKELY REP (GAIN) Kehoe is a Democrat who took over a heavily Republican district in 2006 when Republicans were retreating even in affluent areas. He barely held on in '08. He could get trounced this time.
District 32: TOSSUP O'Rourke was involved in a mysterious hypothermia death of a 41-year old woman last year. He currently is facing a lawsuit. The backlash against him will be significant, but it's hard to tell if it will be enough to topple this nine-term incumbent.
District 33: SAFE DEM Downtown Middletown is rather liberal. Serra is safe.
District 34: TOSSUP Gail Hamm could be vulnerable. Republicans have been fighting hard for her seat and want it badly. Democrats are also involved in a local political scandal, and the backlash from that could send Hamm packing.
District 35: SAFE DEM Brian O'Connor is well-known and well liked. He is safe.
District 36: LIKELY DEM Spallone has ambitions of running for statewide office, but for now he should be able to win handily in the 36th.
District 37: LIKELY DEM This is not an obvious target for Republicans since Ed Jutila won a convincing majority in '08. Still, Republicans could come close in this very moderate district.
District 38: SAFE DEM Ritter had no opponent in '08, and it doesn't look like any Republican is popular enough here to win.
District 39: SAFE DEM Democrats should be blowing away the opposition here, since New London is so miserable and poor. Ernest Hewett is not the strongest of candidates, but then any Democratic candidate could win here.
District 40: SAFE DEM One of the most liberal districts in Eastern CT.
District 41: LEAN DEM Democrats took this seat in 2006 when Republican Lenny Winkler retired. Democrats should be able to hold on, since Groton has been trending Democratic of late.
District 42: SAFE DEM Even if Republicans run a candidate here this time, it won't matter. Reynolds is safe.
District 43: LEAN DEM Republicans want Diana Urban's head for defecting to the Democrats a week after the 2006 election. She's popular here in CT's wine country, and Republicans probably won't be able to overcome her 2,500 vote majority.
District 44: LIKELY DEM Republicans here are still in shock over Mae Flexer's decisive, crushing victory in '08.
District 45: SAFE DEM Steve Mikutel has racked up huge majorities here for years.
District 46: SAFE DEM Downtown Norwich. Republicans don't bother here even in good years.
District 47: LIKELY REP This was one of the Republicans' few gains in 2008. They should be able to hold it, especially if Malone wants his seat back.
District 48: SAFE DEM A traditionally uncontested seat.
District 49: SAFE DEM The town of Windham is second only to college-town Storrs in terms of its tendency to vote Democratic in East CT. Johnson should cruise to victory.
District 50: TOSSUP This seat has been a true tossup for years, as Democrats have fallen 119 votes short in '08, 227 votes in '06 and 38 votes short in '04 of picking up this rural district. Who knows what will happen this time.
District 51: SAFE DEM Republicans actually cross-endorsed Johnson in '08 and '04.
District 52: SAFE REP This is very safe territory for Republicans. They can't lose here.
District 53: TOSSUP Hurlburt hasn't been winning by convincing margins here. Republicans are eyeing his half-suburban, half-rural seat covetously.
District 54: LIKELY DEM Denise Merrill is running for Secretary of State. Four candidates are battling to defeat her. The Democrat, Gregg Haddad, is the clear favorite in Mansfield, CT's biggest college town, since Republicans are a tiny minority here and the college vote will be split between two lefty students running as independents and Haddad.
District 55: SAFE REP Democrats simply don't run candidates here.
District 56: SAFE DEM This is Tolland County's one major Democratic bastion. Jankowski is very safe.
District 57: TOSSUP Republicans came close to knocking off Ted Graziani last time, and they may beat him this time in this rather conservative district. This should be one of the GOP's major targets: expect a big campaign.
District 58: SAFE DEM This district is based around reliably Democratic Thompsonville in Enfield, so Tallarita will cruise to reelection.
District 59: LEAN DEM Karen Jarmoc is running for State Senate. Now that she's out, Republicans will work hard to get this one. They have a fair chance, since this is the outer neighborhoods of Enfield, much more conservative than those in the 58th.
District 60: LIKELY DEM Peggy Sayers should have no trouble getting reelected in suburban, working-class Windsor and Windsor Locks.
District 61: LEAN REP (GAIN) Conway's 61st district is a very marginal seat taken by the Dems in 2008. Republicans should easily take this one back.
District 62: LEAN REP (GAIN) Annie Hornish is far too liberal for this wealthy, rural-suburban district. A competent challenger like Bill Simanski can beat her.
District 63: LIKELY REP Democratic Rep. George Wilber paid off a woman to stop her from claiming of sexual abuse. He resigned and a Republican cruised to victory. Democrats will have a hell of a time regaining the district's trust, which is in any case very rural and contains the state's most Republican town.
District 64: SAFE DEM Roberta Willis represents Connecticut's most Democratic rural district.
District 65: LEAN REP (GAIN) Republicans are very pissed off that they lost this one. Torrington has an extremely popular local Republican government and local Democrats are nearly extinct, but Democrat Michelle Cook inexplicably won. Look for the GOP to throw everything they've got into this one.
District 66: SAFE REP The Democrats are very weak in this district which includes Litchfield. They've got no chance.
District 67: SAFE REP Democrats probably won't run a candidate here. This district is staunchly conservative.
District 68: SAFE REP See District 67.
District 69: SAFE REP See District 67.
District 70: SAFE REP Naugatuck is traditionally Republican and wouldn't think of electing a Democrat.
District 71: SAFE REP This is one of the more liberal districts in the state to elect a Republican, but Democrats still fell 20% short in 2008. They will probably do even worse in 2010.
District 72: SAFE DEM Downtown Waterbury: substantial Hispanic population.
District 73: SAFE DEM See District 72.
District 74: SAFE REP This is still Waterbury, but Republican Selim Noujaim is hugely popular here. Almost no one can beat him.
District 75: LIKELY DEM This is downtown Waterbury, but turnouts have been so low here that a freak Republican win could happen.

So far:

5 gains for Republicans
0 gains for Democrats

6 tossup, 5 currently held by Democrats

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