Obama Pulls a Wilson

[Skill and Chance]

If Obama wins re-election by a tighter margin than his 2008 win, what would the map look like?

[Skill and Chance]

This would be very possible:

Obama/Biden 50.3%
Romney/Gingrich 48.1%

This map is a little out there for a close election, but it would work if state trends since 2008 hold

Obama/Biden 51.3%
Romney/Brewer 47.6%

[feeblepizza]

Obama/Biden (D) 51.4%, 290
Romney/Haley (R) 49.1%, 248

[Skill and Chance]

Obama/Biden (D) 51.4%, 290
Romney/Haley (R) 49.1%, 248

Colorado and NH flip before Ohio?!?  I don't see that.

[Del Tachi]

(Using 2012 EV's)
Obama/Biden: 279
Romney/Barbour: 263

[Skill and Chance]

An even closer G. W. Bush style scenario with an EV/PV split:

Daniels/Huckabee 49.1%  264 EV (using 2012 projections)
Obama/Biden        48.9%  276 EV (using 2012 projections)

The election is decided by Obama's 1200 vote margin of victory in VA. 
 
PA is 51-49 D, FL is 51-49 R

[Skill and Chance]

There are a lot of people who assume that Florida will be in play for Obama in a 50-50 election.  I don't know about that.  It would require a strong state trend toward him, as he only got 50.9% in FL in 2008.  Then again, FL did trend strongly toward Clinton in 1996.

Maybe something like this is possible:

img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;5&AZ=2;10;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=2;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;8&FL=1;27;4&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=1;7;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;5&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;4&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;4&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;5&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6[/img]

[Captain Chaos]

[Antonio the Sixth]

This would be very possible:

Obama/Biden 50.3%
Romney/Gingrich 48.1%

That seems right.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

There are a lot of people who assume that Florida will be in play for Obama in a 50-50 election.  I don't know about that.  It would require a strong state trend toward him, as he only got 50.9% in FL in 2008.  Then again, FL did trend strongly toward Clinton in 1996.

Maybe something like this is possible:

Fix it up like I just did.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Here's something a little "Out of the box."

The economy continues to slide, but the GOP nominates a total "turkey" for President. While the situation endures in the rust belt, Obama is able to hold onto his western gains for a razor-thin victory. The GOP makes gains in the House and Senate despite Obama's victory.