Democrats: which big state governor's race is more important?

[Ogre Mage]

Both of these are closely contested governor's races in big population states.  Which is the more important to win?  Why?

[ajc0918]

[Skill and Chance]

It depends on whether Florida's ballot measure to create an independent redistricting commision passes.  If the referendum passes, I say California is more important, but if the referendum fails, Florida is clearly more important.  There more restrictions from existing referenda in California that restrict what Brown and the Dem legislature could get away with in terms of gerrymandering.  Both candidates are likely too old for a 2016 presidential run, but I guess it wouldn't be out of the question for Sink. 

[Ogre Mage]

It depends on whether Florida's ballot measure to create an independent redistricting commision passes.  If the referendum passes, I say California is more important, but if the referendum fails, Florida is clearly more important.  There more restrictions from existing referenda in California that restrict what Brown and the Dem legislature could get away with in terms of gerrymandering.  Both candidates are likely too old for a 2016 presidential run, but I guess it wouldn't be out of the question for Sink. 

Thanks for posting that info.  Redistricting was one of the issues I was thinking about.  On one hand, California has a larger number of seats.  However, they had total control of the process in 2000 so I'm not sure how much more gerrymandering can be done.  In Florida, I believe the Republicans had total control of the process in 2000 and drew a very GOP friendly map.  So there is certainly room for improvement.  The GOP still has solid control of the state legislature in FL but if they draw too partisan a map, Governor Sink will veto it.  Unless, of course, the referendum passes which would make the issue moot.

[Niemeyerite]

California. I thinks this state is the 7th economy of the world.

[Dan03]

I'd say California, because it's such a Democratic state

[ajc0918]

It depends on whether Florida's ballot measure to create an independent redistricting commision passes.  If the referendum passes, I say California is more important, but if the referendum fails, Florida is clearly more important.  There more restrictions from existing referenda in California that restrict what Brown and the Dem legislature could get away with in terms of gerrymandering.  Both candidates are likely too old for a 2016 presidential run, but I guess it wouldn't be out of the question for Sink. 

Thanks for posting that info.  Redistricting was one of the issues I was thinking about.  On one hand, California has a larger number of seats.  However, they had total control of the process in 2000 so I'm not sure how much more gerrymandering can be done.  In Florida, I believe the Republicans had total control of the process in 2000 and drew a very GOP friendly map.  So there is certainly room for improvement.  The GOP still has solid control of the state legislature in FL but if they draw too partisan a map, Governor Sink will veto it.  Unless, of course, the referendum passes which would make the issue moot.

If 2010 goes as planned, the GOP will get super majorities and be able to override a veto from Sink. But I believe that only goes for state legislature redistricting. ALSO, as for the "Fair Districts" amendment goes, many prominent democrats are giving money to stop it from passing, many dems dont want to lose their districts.

[Dgov]

From a Redistricting point of view, if Prop 20 passes in California (which it is likely to), the Governor and State legislature are completely removed from the process.  Also, I think the Florida GOP is set to take 2/3rd majorities in both houses this election, so a governor Sink might be entirely insignificant (she might threaten to high-profile it if they get too naughty though, so they'll probably try to keep the current setup more than likely.

[??????????]

California, they are teetering on the edge. Florida has a GOP majority in both houses and can keep the big banker crook in check if need be.

[Lunar]

Florida has more potential for redistricting impact, right?

Florida & California are both extremely important for me for the big governors races, to show that money can't buy you love in all cases...Scott and Whitman represent a certain amount of cynicism with their record self-funding...getting past all that "at least I'm not funded from [xx]" stuff, spending $150m in any non-presidential race is just silly

[Eraserhead]

I don't know but California is more important to me personally. I've always kind of admired Brown. He's a really epic political figure and he comes off as brutally honest (this gets him into trouble but honesty is a quality I tend to like).

Sink, who I don't know a ton about honestly, comes off as a major Moderate Hero. I have absolutely no personal connection with her. I'm still rooting for her, of course. It'd definitely be good to pick up the statehouse of at least one major "battleground" state on election night.

[they don't love you like i love you]

The Governor does not have veto power over redistricting in Florida.

California is the obvious answer. Florida is a horrible epic fail state with no reason to care about who runs that ungovernable hellhole.

[Eraserhead]

No reason to blast this at full volume if Florida is called for Sink on election night:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CR2rxRMcTE&feature=fvst

[Lunar]

The Governor does not have veto power over redistricting in Florida.

California is the obvious answer. Florida is a horrible epic fail state with no reason to care about who runs that ungovernable hellhole.

As a former resident of California, I have to object to you referencing our state and then referring to another state as "ungovernable" in contrast.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Governor does not have veto power over redistricting in Florida.

They do over the Congressional plan, but not the state legislative plan.

[ajc0918]

The Governor does not have veto power over redistricting in Florida.

California is the obvious answer. Florida is a horrible epic fail state with no reason to care about who runs that ungovernable hellhole.

Just because you hate Florida, doesn't mean you need to make nonsense comments like this.

[Ogre Mage]

Florida has more potential for redistricting impact, right?

Florida & California are both extremely important for me for the big governors races, to show that money can't buy you love in all cases...Scott and Whitman represent a certain amount of cynicism with their record self-funding...getting past all that "at least I'm not funded from [xx]" stuff, spending $150m in any non-presidential race is just silly

Yes, that is a trait Scott and Whitman have in common which I hadn't thought about.  Both are trying ride into the Governor's Mansion on their own personal wealth.  If the main criteria is which GOP opponent would I rather see defeated, I would say Rick Scott.  This is due to his association with the medicare fraud at Columbia.

However, I did some research and BRTD is correct -- the Florida Governor has no veto power over Congressional redistricting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://rosereport.org/20100222/florida-redistricting-the-complete-analysis/

If the redistricting issue is removed from the equation, I lean toward thinking that California is the more important race.  

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The governor has veto power over the Congressional plan according to this source:

http://www.brennancenter.org/page/-/Democracy/redistricting/FL%20status%20quo.pdf

[Ogre Mage]

Well, now I am confused and undecided again, lol. 

[Skill and Chance]

I'm leaning toward Florida.  Even if it doesn't make a difference in redistricting, Sink would pull out all the stops for Obama in FL if 2012 was shaping up to be really close at the Presidential level, whereas Rick Scott would do everything in his power to tip the state toward the GOP opponent.

[rbt48]

Agree.  Florida, for the Presidential election reasons. 

Not that Crist was of much help to McCain.