Do you doubt that Palin will be the nominee?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I most certainly do.

As I think I've commented previously, Palin's support is strong and loud but very narrow, basically an inch wide and a mile-deep kinda thing.

2008 for the Dems, while not pretty, wasn't especially bloody, largely because that wasn't  'soul searching' Clinton and Obama pretty much agreed on everything and the only thing different was the salesperson and delivery.

The Republicans are essentially divergent warring tribes held together by their dislike to hatred of Obama.

I have the distinct impression the 2012 Republican Primary is going to make the 2008 Dem one look like a Children's Birthday Party.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I most certainly do.

As I think I've commented previously, Palin's support is strong and loud but very narrow, basically an inch wide and a mile-deep kinda thing.

2008 for the Dems, while not pretty, wasn't especially bloody, largely because that wasn't  'soul searching' Clinton and Obama pretty much agreed on everything and the only thing different was the salesperson and delivery.

The Republicans are essentially divergent warring tribes held together by their dislike to hatred of Obama.

I have the distinct impression the 2012 Republican Primary is going to make the 2008 Dem one look like a Children's Birthday Party.

No, I suspect the GOP nominee will be the winner of Iowa.
The winner of Iowa will be neither Romney nor Palin, but rather someone in the mold of Thune/Pence. 
The winner of Iowa will skip NH, conceding it to Romney.
The winner of Iowa will win SC. 
And the winner of SC will have a field day in the South. 
The race for the 2012 GOP nomination will be over fairly quickly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That worked for Huckabee didn't it?

I really think you'll have a lot of moderate (ie less fruit-cakey) Republicans who know that the religious-right's candidate will do well in IA and SC... however, the likely winner in NH, will probably also win MI which creates the said divide. A moderate Republican (who frankly is who they need to beat Obama) who can win the primaries in NH, MI, CA, NY, FL(?), and across the Mid-West is a much wiser choice than running to the extreme right...

The Rep nominee has to win somewhere outside of the south to get the nomination... Palin might be competition for Romney in the upper plains and the Mountain West, but she will get slaughtered on the coasts and in the mid-West.

If Thune and Pawlenty get into the race, that creates a whole new dynamic.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

That worked for Huckabee didn't it?

Huck was the failure, not Huck's strategy.  No one who ran in 2008, except for Palin, has a chance at the 2012 nom.

---

I really think you'll have a lot of moderate (ie less fruit-cakey) Republicans who know that the religious-right's candidate will do well in IA and SC... however, the likely winner in NH, will probably also win MI which creates the said divide. A moderate Republican (who frankly is who they need to beat Obama) who can win the primaries in NH, MI, CA, NY, FL(?), and across the Mid-West is a much wiser choice than running to the extreme right...

The Rep nominee has to win somewhere outside of the south to get the nomination... Palin might be competition for Romney in the upper plains and the Mountain West, but she will get slaughtered on the coasts and in the mid-West.

If Thune and Pawlenty get into the race, that creates a whole new dynamic.

Romney will not will MI, and only those to the right of Romney have any chance to win any primariesy outside of New England.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And anyone with TP support will be flattened in the GE... so my suggestion to the Reps - find yourself a moderate (even if quietly so), Mid Westerner... sober moderation can beat Obama... far-right fervour will not.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And anyone with TP support will be flattened in the GE... so my suggestion to the Reps - find yourself a moderate (even if quietly so), Mid Westerner... sober moderation can beat Obama... far-right fervour will not.

you really don't understand who makes up the TP - its basically the Reagan coalition.  Someone like Pence/Thune could unite the TP and win a 1980 style landslide and come into power with 65+ GOP Senators. 

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

And anyone with TP support will be flattened in the GE... so my suggestion to the Reps - find yourself a moderate (even if quietly so), Mid Westerner... sober moderation can beat Obama... far-right fervour will not.

you really don't understand who makes up the TP - its basically the Reagan coalition.  Someone like Pence/Thune could unite the TP and win a 1980 style landslide and come into power with 65+ GOP Senators. 

There is a sizable portion of the tea party "coalition" that was not part of the "Reagan coalition" and has no desire to idolize a has-been neocon who recklessly spent his way to record deficits.

[Psychic Octopus]

And anyone with TP support will be flattened in the GE... so my suggestion to the Reps - find yourself a moderate (even if quietly so), Mid Westerner... sober moderation can beat Obama... far-right fervour will not.

So, in short, nominate Daniels?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

There is a sizable portion of the tea party "coalition" that was not part of the "Reagan coalition" and has no desire to idolize a has-been neocon who recklessly spent his way to record deficits.

yes, the argument can be made that the non-RINO portion of the GOP + rest of TP + Reagan Dems is bigger than the Reagan coalition

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

For the Dems, the absolute worst nightmare would be Mike Pence, who could unite even the Libertas wing of whatever bird Libertas belongs to.  2nd worse nightmare would be Thune.

Thune and Pence have a chance to outpoll the proverbial generic Republican by the end of the campaign, while all the 2008 contenders would underpoll the proverbial generic Republican.

[Poundingtherock]

Absolutely no if Mike Huckabee stays out of the race and even if he's in the race, she has a decent shot.

Consider that hardcore conservatives won in two of the most moderate GOP electorates in the country, Alaska and Delaware.  Moderate Republicans went down in states with extremely moderate GOP electorates.

Nearly every GOP primary electorate, with the exception of New Hampshire, will be more conservative than Alaska and Delaware where Miller and O'Donnell won.  Palin will be in a stronger position than Miller and O'Donnell were while it's unlikely that Romney or any other moderate will be in a stronger position than Castle or Murkowski.  And consider that the GOP electorates in nearly every other state is a lot more conservative than either Alaska or Delaware.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Absolutely no if Mike Huckabee stays out of the race and even if he's in the race, she has a decent shot.

Consider that hardcore conservatives won in two of the most moderate GOP electorates in the country, Alaska and Delaware.  Moderate Republicans went down in states with extremely moderate GOP electorates.

Nearly every GOP primary electorate, with the exception of New Hampshire, will be more conservative than Alaska and Delaware where Miller and O'Donnell won.  Palin will be in a stronger position than Miller and O'Donnell were while it's unlikely that Romney or any other moderate will be in a stronger position than Castle or Murkowski.  And consider that the GOP electorates in nearly every other state is a lot more conservative than either Alaska or Delaware.

good summary of why Romney has no shot, but dont underestimate GOP primary voters.  They are NOT all out nuts for Palin if someone like Thune or Pence were running against her.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And anyone with TP support will be flattened in the GE... so my suggestion to the Reps - find yourself a moderate (even if quietly so), Mid Westerner... sober moderation can beat Obama... far-right fervour will not.

So, in short, nominate Daniels?

Pretty much... the only credible Rep out there that really worries me.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Do I doubt Palin will be the nominee? Yes.

Do I doubt a teabagger or someone who will become quickly a teabaggers hostabe will be a nominee? No.

[Mr.Phips]

I skimmed the OP, and haven't read the following comments, so excuse me if I'm a bit repetitive.

"If you think Romney can beat Palin, then you haven't been paying attention" is pretty much a direct quote.

But you're so wrong.

What Romney has done is so smart it's incredible. He's kept his profile so low that the media can't attack or mock him, but he has made a few appearances on cable news to keep his profile up at the same time.

Seriously, this is the smartest move ever. Palin, with her stupid comments and her constant public appearance only invites people to mock her, and thus discredit her. Compare this to Romney who has been able to remain relevant, but has kept himself out of the spotlight as to not undermine his inevitable campaign.

I hate when people call politicians stupid, because they clearly are not. Just because Bush stumbled over words make people assume he's dumb (ok you can disagree with his policies, but to say he's stupid because he said 'misunderestimate' and the like is so ignorant on your part - just look how The Great Communicator Through Teleprompters is doing!). But she most certainly doesn't help herself.

2008 was always an Obama win. No matter how McCain campaigned, no matter his running mate, the election was a vote against Bush and NOT a vote for liberal policies. With that said, it would have been much closer if it wasn't for Palin. So many people, my parents (and especially dad - who's a conservative) voted for Obama for the sole reason of Palin being so close to the presidency.

Palin has a cult following, comparable to Ron Paul. Just because she's constantly in the media spotlight doesn't make her popular or the "people's princess", if you will. In fact, the constant attention will just hurt her.

Romney has the nomination wrapped up already, it's not even funny.

No, he doesn't. If Thune or Pence or Barbour wins IA, then SC, they have the nominatio locked up.

Also 2008 was not a guarrenteed Obama win. Obama threw a large lead from June to August and he really didn't regain a steady lead till after Lehman bros collapsed.

You are right that it wasn't Palin that decided the eleciton, but wrong that it was an Obama win from the start.

Economic fundamentals always assumed an Obama win.  The economy began contracting in December 2007, perked up slightly in the second quarter because of the stimulus checks, and then continued its downward descent in the summer with third quarter going heavily negative.  The economy began losing substantial numbers of jobs each month beginning in January 2008.  The unemployment rate rose almost 2% from mid 2007 to September 2008, going from 4.4% to 6.2%.  NO Presidential candidate of the party holding the White House has ever survived economic numbers this horrid.  Not Carter in 1980, not McCain in 2008.  Without the financial crash in September, Obama would have still likely won by around three points.  Even Carter pulled into the lead over Reagan in 1980 after the Democratic convention, but in the end, the economic fundamentals were too much for him.

The only time I can think of an incumbent party winning the White House in economic times even close to this was 1956, where the economy contracted in the first and third quarters, but the economy continued to show strong jobs growth(except for August and September) and the unemployment rate remained around 4%. 

[Eraserhead]

For the Dems, the absolute worst nightmare would be Mike Pence, who could unite even the Libertas wing of whatever bird Libertas belongs to.  2nd worse nightmare would be Thune.

Thune and Pence have a chance to outpoll the proverbial generic Republican by the end of the campaign, while all the 2008 contenders would underpoll the proverbial generic Republican.

Don't blow your wad already or anything.

[nhmagic]

We should let Rubio purposefully lose this election to Crist and run him in the general.  I doubt Palin will be the nominee, but if she is I'd happily vote for her. 

I doubt Obama is going to be running for a second term with Michelle on his case.  She's planning to go on another $2 million spending spree to punish him and apparently hes been removing his wedding ring and they've been having fights.  Theres some serious truth to all the rumors flying about from Bob Woodward to Carla Bruni and that is going to be devastating to his presidency.  Some other rumors: He's not happy with the presidency himself and apparently hes obsessed with watching Fox News and keeping an eye on Hillary who he doesn't trust.

I say we get a surprise after the midterms: He waits until Junish or so to announce he's not running for reelection in 2012.  Michelle wants out and I think he does too.

Then democrats can have the candidate they really wanted in the first place: Hillary Clinton.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans wouldnt be stupid enough to nominate this woman. 

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

For the Dems, the absolute worst nightmare would be Mike Pence, who could unite even the Libertas wing of whatever bird Libertas belongs to.  2nd worse nightmare would be Thune.

Thune and Pence have a chance to outpoll the proverbial generic Republican by the end of the campaign, while all the 2008 contenders would underpoll the proverbial generic Republican.

On behalf of the Libertas wing, let me state unequivocally that no, we will not be supporting Mike Pence for president in 2012, nor will any other part of the bird. That is all.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We should let Rubio purposefully lose this election to Crist and run him in the general.  I doubt Palin will be the nominee, but if she is I'd happily vote for her. 

I doubt Obama is going to be running for a second term with Michelle on his case.  She's planning to go on another $2 million spending spree to punish him and apparently hes been removing his wedding ring and they've been having fights.  Theres some serious truth to all the rumors flying about from Bob Woodward to Carla Bruni and that is going to be devastating to his presidency.  Some other rumors: He's not happy with the presidency himself and apparently hes obsessed with watching Fox News and keeping an eye on Hillary who he doesn't trust.

I say we get a surprise after the midterms: He waits until Junish or so to announce he's not running for reelection in 2012.  Michelle wants out and I think he does too.

Then democrats can have the candidate they really wanted in the first place: Hillary Clinton.

That really is all kinds of special... did you know that Glen Beck has found communist propaganda at Rockefeller Centre?

[Lief 🗽]

I don't doubt that she will be the nominee nor do I doubt that she will be the president come January 2013.