County Predictions per. State, 2012

[Fuzzybigfoot]

What will you home state look like after election day 2012?

Discuss with maps.

[Inmate Trump]

I would do this, but I don't know how to do a county by county map for a single state.....

[Yelnoc]

I would do this, but I don't know how to do a county by county map for a single state.....

Just go to the Election Results section and in 2008 click on Georgia.  You can copy/paste that map into paint and edit it with the bucket tool.

[feeblepizza]

The GOP picks up Vanderburgh, Spencer, Madison, Porter, and Starke.

[tmthforu94]

Well, here's my Indiana guess...



Some of the Blue percentage colors should probably be darker, but oh well. I see Obama losing Indiana by about a 54-45 margin.

[Ronnie]

This is Obama winning CA by 56-44:



The counties I am most unsure about are San Joaquin, Merced, and San Luis Obispo.  I kind of went with my gut on those.

[memphis]

Pretty much the same as in '08.

[Yelnoc]

I won't make a Georgia map because I don't have a clue.

A suggestion to future posters though would be to save the map as a .png to avoid pixellization.

[CatoMinor]

 

The Rio Grande Valley swings to the dems, but the rest of the state swings further GOP.

[Poundingtherock]

How do you make a map?

[CatoMinor]

How do you make a map?

Save a county map of a state to your pictures, then edit it to what you want with paint.

[5280]

Here is the 2012 election result for CO... 55/43 for GOP

Basically its the same as 2004 map plus a few more counties for the GOP. Obama narrowly loses Adams and Clear Creek counties.

[fezzyfestoon]

The GOP is going to win Colorado by 12 points?  A swing of 21%?  Meaning they'll win by about 14% nationally?  Reagan only won by 18% to put that into perspective.  And that's not what Colorado would look like if that were the case.

[5280]

It will still win more than what Bush won CO in 2004, but less than Reagan won in 1984.

1984 Map


Take out a few counties from the GOP, such as Boulder, Denver, Gilpin, Lake, Summit and some other counties in the mountains, and you get 2012 election.

[fezzyfestoon]

Not only will 2012 be nothing like 1984, Colorado's voting patterns look nothing like they did then either.  Terrible comparison, terrible map.  Sorry, but it's just ridiculous.  Here's a (shitty) map of a win of that caliber in 2012, which is almost impossible:

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Passaic, Middlesex, and Cumberland go from 60%> Obama to 50%> Obama.

Ocean and Sussex go to 60%> GOP

New Jersey votes 55.5-43.5 for Obama.  

[5280]

Not only will 2012 be nothing like 1984, Colorado's voting patterns look nothing like they did then either.  Terrible comparison, terrible map.  Sorry, but it's just ridiculous.  Here's a (shitty) map of a win of that caliber in 2012, which is almost impossible:

I'm not saying it's going to be like 1984, it will be ALMOST like 2004 but with more votes for the GOP.

Demographics change and it's not always going to be 2008

[fezzyfestoon]

Not only will 2012 be nothing like 1984, Colorado's voting patterns look nothing like they did then either.  Terrible comparison, terrible map.  Sorry, but it's just ridiculous.  Here's a (shitty) map of a win of that caliber in 2012, which is almost impossible:

I'm not saying it's going to be like 1984, it will be ALMOST like 2004 but with more votes for the GOP.

Demographics change and it's not always going to be 2008

55/43 for the GOP is nothing like 2004 and I just said demographics change...something you didn't adjust for at all, especially when you suggested 2012 will look like 1984.

[5280]

My bad if I forgot to adjust, your map looks accurate enough

[Smash255]

My bad if I forgot to adjust, your map looks accurate enough

His map is absolutely worst case for Obama.  Also with the crop of candidates the GOP has, I don't think they have a shot in hell at Jefferson, Araphoe or Adams.

[5280]

My bad if I forgot to adjust, your map looks accurate enough

His map is absolutely worst case for Obama.  Also with the crop of candidates the GOP has, I don't think they have a shot in hell at Jefferson, Araphoe or Adams.

I'd say there's more of a shot for GOP winning Jefferson country than Adams or Arapahoe. Besides, anything can happen if Obama get worse approval ratings than current.

[Sbane]

My bad if I forgot to adjust, your map looks accurate enough

His map is absolutely worst case for Obama.  Also with the crop of candidates the GOP has, I don't think they have a shot in hell at Jefferson, Araphoe or Adams.

I'd say there's more of a shot for GOP winning Jefferson country than Adams or Arapahoe. Besides, anything can happen if Obama get worse approval ratings than current.

Jefferson does seem to be becoming more Republican than Arapahoe but that makes sense since Arapahoe has more minorities and is slightly less wealthy. Adams also has a lot of Hispanics IIRC and seems to be becoming more Democratic. I don't think a Republican can carry it unless they are winning by at least 6-7% nationwide.

[5280]

My bad if I forgot to adjust, your map looks accurate enough

His map is absolutely worst case for Obama.  Also with the crop of candidates the GOP has, I don't think they have a shot in hell at Jefferson, Araphoe or Adams.

I'd say there's more of a shot for GOP winning Jefferson country than Adams or Arapahoe. Besides, anything can happen if Obama get worse approval ratings than current.

Jefferson does seem to be becoming more Republican than Arapahoe but that makes sense since Arapahoe has more minorities and is slightly less wealthy. Adams also has a lot of Hispanics IIRC and seems to be becoming more Democratic. I don't think a Republican can carry it unless they are winning by at least 6-7% nationwide.

I live in Adams County, the problem with it, is alot of the people who reside there love to depend on government and tax increases, especially the hispanic. I'm so against any type of tax increases especially when the local level of the government doesn't do much. It feels too much of a communitarian vibe.

Compare that to Douglas county, which is booming with business, everytime I drive down to that area (Highlands Ranch, Centennial, Lone Tree) so much nicer than most parts of Adams county. Hell, even Weld county around Dacono, Frederick and Firestone have nicer neighborhoods. I'd say the only part of Adams county that would vote for the GOP more or less would be the newer parts of Commerce City (Reunion, Buffalo Mesa).