PA-11/Critical Insights: Barletta (R) ahead by double digits

[Tender Branson]

WARNING: Only 221 people polled, MoE = 7% !!!

43% Lou Barletta (R)
32% Paul Kanjorski (D-Inc.)
25% Undecided

http://www.timesleader.com/news/Poll-indicates-Barletta-leading-Kanjorski.html

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Someone was cutting corners here. Too bad we probably won't be getting any better polls out of this district.

[minionofmidas]

Kanjorski really, really ought to have been primaried successfully.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Doesn't really matter if there are any polls out of here -- the fact that Kanjo only won 52-48 in 2008 despite a 15-point Obama victory there *and* Kanjo outspending Barletta a few times over means that he's DOA this year.

[minionofmidas]

Doesn't really matter if there are any polls out of here -- the fact that Kanjo only won 52-48 in 2008 despite a 15-point Obama victory there *and* Kanjo outspending Barletta a few times over means that he's DOA this year.

Or should be, anyways. Short of serious changes in perception of the two.

[J. J.]

There may be the possibility to drive from pPhilly to Pittsburgh in GOP districts.  I still think the Dems hold PA 12.

[Mr.Phips]

Barletta can enjoy his one term here.  No way he survives the Obama wave against a decent Democratic candidate in 2012. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Carney hangs on, redistricting might just shove Scranton and Wilkes-Barre into his district. Then both incumbents would probably be safe.

[Mr.Phips]

If Carney hangs on, redistricting might just shove Scranton and Wilkes-Barre into his district. Then both incumbents would probably be safe.

Well if Carney and Barletta both lose, I could see Republicans trying to have it both ways by putting Scranton back into PA-10 to protect Barletta.  PA-11 even without Scranton still has some very Democratic counties and would still be a perenial Democratic target.  On the other hand, putting Scranton back in PA-10 would instantly turn that from an R+8 district to an R+0 or R+1 district and would make someone as weak as Marino an almost certain loser in the better Democratic year of 2012 against someone like Pat Casey.

Republicans are not going to be able to keep BOTH of these seats long term.  If they try to keep both, they will both end up being Democratic pickups in the next good Democratic year(probably 2012).

[J. J.]

We're anticipated to be down one seat, so that might make a difference.

[Dgov]

the 11th District is only D + 4 in it's current form, which is towards the upper end of What Republicans can hold in a neutral cycle.  If the GOP sweeps NE PA, they might try to bring this one down to even, and keep the 10th at R + 5 or so.

But if they wind up in control of Redistricting again, you might see a Scranton to Allentown district get drawn to leave the region 2-1 Republican.

[Mr.Phips]

the 11th District is only D + 4 in it's current form, which is towards the upper end of What Republicans can hold in a neutral cycle.  If the GOP sweeps NE PA, they might try to bring this one down to even, and keep the 10th at R + 5 or so.

But if they wind up in control of Redistricting again, you might see a Scranton to Allentown district get drawn to leave the region 2-1 Republican.

Barletta is very far to the right for a D+4 district or even an even district.  You couldnt bring this district to even without bringing PA-10 down to about R+1.