Would Sarah Palin Do THAT Badly If She Was Nominated In 2012?

[milhouse24]

Palin is the Female Ronald Reagan.  She was a former New Anchor and really knows how to work a television performance.  Reagan was an anchor and knew how to create an image and capture the audience.  Palin is a performer/actor, so was Reagan, and it seems that any Politician who wants to win needs to understand how to manipulate television and media to manipulate the voting public.

[Dan the Roman]

Palin would have real trouble in Virginia. The GOP needs to sweep the DC and Richmond Exurbs as well as Virginia Beach to win. She would not play well there. I could actually she see her losing Virginia while winning Pennsylvania. Its would be just that kind of race.

I also tend to feel she would do very badly in Florida, not badly enough to lose it if she was winning nationally by a decent margin, but probably she would under-perform her national numbers. Jews + Blacks + Hispanics would all be motivated to vote against her, and she is a terrible Hillsborough candidate.
 

[DS0816]

Four scenarios to consider:


A: Election 2012 is the second such case in the past 100 years-plus that we flip political parties in two consecutive elections. The Republican candidate erases the 7.26% margin won by President Barack Obama in Election 2008. And enough states flip to make the difference.

ELECTION 2012

Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) vs. * Barack Obama (D-Illinois)

PALIN 50.10% | OBAMA 48.39%

B: Election 2012 results in President Obama re-elected but becoming the second commander in chief, following 1916 Woodrow Wilson, to suffer a loss in electoral votes in his re-election (1912 Wilson won 435 out of 531; in 1916 he had 277 out of 531).

ELECTION 2012

Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) vs. * Barack Obama (D-Illinois)

PALIN 48.33% | OBAMA 50.16%

C: Election 2012 results in President Obama having a modest shift in U.S. Popular Vote similar to re-elections of 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush, both of whom garnered an additonal 3% in their margins. A few states trade colors, but President Obama has a gain in electoral votes in his re-election.

ELECTION 2012

Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) vs. * Barack Obama (D-Illinois)

PALIN 43.95% | OBAMA 54.54%

D: Election 2012 results in the first 400-vote [-plus] victory in the Electoral College since 1988. The Republican Party has a candidate who loses significant ground that’s worse than the party’s losing candidate from 2008, John McCain. In this case, no states get picked up by the opposition party. The incumbent party is the one that picks up states and, in essence, landslides challenging party and its candidate.

ELECTION 2012

Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) vs. * Barack Obama (D-Illinois)

PALIN 38.82% | OBAMA 59.67%

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Obama 489
Palin       49

President Obama wins about 60% of the popular vote and about 90% of the electoral vote.

In essence, Sarah Palin does particularly well nowhere. Obama picks up anything that any Democrat has ever won since 1992 -- including some states that he was clobbered in in 2008. Sarah Palin is so erratic that she scares a vote that ordinarily has voted Republican (the pro-military vote) in almost every Presidential election since 1968, inclusive. He picks up the Clinton-but-not-Obama vote.

If any Republican wants to avoid a Goldwater-style debacle, then they had better come up with someone with a steadier mind than hers. Maybe Goldwater wasn't that nutty -- but  Sarah Palin is.

...

[perdedor]

Can any of the people who are defending Palin name one group that she'll appeal to who would have voted for Obama otherwise? She'll do well among old white men, the rich, and...? Moderates (of both parties) hate her, women hate her, minorities hate her, and young people hate her. Where exactly is she going to improve on McCain's numbers?

This is a best case for Palin. Assuming that the Republican handlers keep her away from the media like they do for the teabagger candidates, she might avoid getting her ass blown completely out of the water. Otherwise, its all downhill from there.

[feeblepizza]

Close but no cigar.

[Inmate Trump]

Image Link

Obama - 320
Palin - 218

While I'm not foolish enough to believe that Palin can't win, I don't think it's very likely.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Can any of the people who are defending Palin name one group that she'll appeal to who would have voted for Obama otherwise? She'll do well among old white men, the rich, and...? Moderates (of both parties) hate her, women hate her, minorities hate her, and young people hate her. Where exactly is she going to improve on McCain's numbers?

This is a best case for Palin. Assuming that the Republican handlers keep her away from the media like they do for the teabagger candidates, she might avoid getting her ass blown completely out of the water. Otherwise, its all downhill from there.

Well, she also appeals to social conservatives much more than McCain ever could. The thing about Sarah Palin is that the people that love her REALLY REALLY love her, and are motivated to show up and vote for her. As of right now, Obama does not have that big of an appeal among his base. I don't think Sarah Palin would win, but my point is that she wouldn't lose in a 400+ landslide because she would bring her supporters out to vote in droves. I don't think that the people that hate her would be as enthused and energized to vote against her.

Anyway, in your map, you have Sarah Palin doing better than McCain did against Obama, which would be a moral victory for the GOP, as Wilson is the only President to win re-election with less electoral votes than his first election. That being said, I think she could take Missouri, though it would be close (maybe swap Virginia for Missouri).

[Poundingtherock]

Sharron Angle will clearly defeat Harry Reid on November 2nd.  Barack obama's favorable/unfavorable numbers are the same as Harry Reid's favorable/unfavorable numbers in Nevada according to Mason-Dixon.  PPP, a Democrat Party pollster, said that Obama was dragging down Reid.  Magellan, a solid Republican pollster, has his approval rating in the mid-30s.  People in Nevada personally and professionally dislike Barack obama just as much as they personally and professionally dislike harry reid.   All the credible pollsters from Nevada point to Obama being just as weak professionally and personally as Reid with the silver state's voters.  Mason-Dixon's numbers were among registered voters, so you cannot just say the likely voter screen is hurting Obama.

I think most people would agree that Palin is stronger than Sharron angle.  Given that Angle will defeat Reid this November, why wouldn't Palin defeat Obama given that she's stronger than Angle  and that Reid is no weaker than Obama personally and professionally with Nevadans?

[Poundingtherock]

Her favorable/unfavorable numbers are better than Obama's in Florida according to Susquehana.

While she's overwhelmingly popular in the state, Obama is overwhelmingly unpopular in the state.  Susquehana had Obama at 34/51 favorable/unfavorable in Alan Grayson's congressional district, a district that pretty much is in line with the state average.  There's no reason to believe that Obama's numbers are better or worse statewide than what he's polling in Grayson's district.  Her numbers were 43/49 statewide.

Once again, it appears that Rick Scott will defeat Alex Sink.  Palin is clearly stronger than alleged con-man Rick Scott.  Obama is clearly weaker than a strong Democrat Party nominee like Alex Sink.  If Scott beats Sink, then Palin would defeat obama.

[perdedor]

Can any of the people who are defending Palin name one group that she'll appeal to who would have voted for Obama otherwise? She'll do well among old white men, the rich, and...? Moderates (of both parties) hate her, women hate her, minorities hate her, and young people hate her. Where exactly is she going to improve on McCain's numbers?

This is a best case for Palin. Assuming that the Republican handlers keep her away from the media like they do for the teabagger candidates, she might avoid getting her ass blown completely out of the water. Otherwise, its all downhill from there.

Well, she also appeals to social conservatives much more than McCain ever could. The thing about Sarah Palin is that the people that love her REALLY REALLY love her, and are motivated to show up and vote for her. As of right now, Obama does not have that big of an appeal among his base. I don't think Sarah Palin would win, but my point is that she wouldn't lose in a 400+ landslide because she would bring her supporters out to vote in droves. I don't think that the people that hate her would be as enthused and energized to vote against her.

Anyway, in your map, you have Sarah Palin doing better than McCain did against Obama, which would be a moral victory for the GOP, as Wilson is the only President to win re-election with less electoral votes than his first election. That being said, I think she could take Missouri, though it would be close (maybe swap Virginia for Missouri).

My map assumes a couple of things. For starters, I  doubt that 39% of the electorate will be made up of Democrats in 2012. That said, Palin isn't going to get 10% of Democrats or 44% of Independents as McCain did. She'll probably do much better than 78% of conservatives, but there is no way she gets 10% of liberals and would find a way to come up short of the 39% of moderates who backed McCain. Palin wouldn't be able to run away from the far-right wing image she's built for herself, especially not if she's counting on social conservatives as you seem to suggest. this means a big sour taste in the mouth of moderates/independents of all stripes.

So, technically you could say that Palin improved on McCain's numbers in my map, but this would mostly be an issue of voter demographics and would likely have nothing to do with Palin's presidential merits as compared to Obama. Again, I also assume that her handlers would force her to run a Dewey '48 sort of campaign where she doesn't say anything that isn't scripted and takes no interviews that aren't guaranteed to be friendly. If they let her speak freely, she is going to implode in a Goldwater like manner and this "best case" for Palin would fall well outside the realm of possibility.

Of course, this all falls under the assumption that Palin could survive a Republican primary, which I strongly doubt would ever actually happen. Like I said in the other thread, she wont be able to pin her woes on mean, elitist Democrats when the majority of the criticism will be coming from Republicans. Said simply, I don't think she can survive without the entire GOP apparatus up her ass as they have been since 2008. She's a cultural figure and cultural figures don't last long when their loyal following starts asking questions

(Note: I'm sorry if this sounds disjointed and confusing, I've been fighting the flu the past week or so and I'm totally wrecked on Nyquil )