Would Sarah Palin Do THAT Badly If She Was Nominated In 2012?

[Poundingtherock]

Why would she lose Nevada or Missouri?

She's stronger than Angle and Obama's poll numbers are weaker than Reid's in Nevada.

Missouri is pretty much the same situation as North Carolina and even PPP found her endorsement to be stronger than Obama's in North Carolina.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_901.pdf

[Poundingtherock]

Actually, that voter screen isn't tight at all and the actual sample isn't dramatically different from 2004.

The 2008 electorate no longer exists.

[Poundingtherock]

MK Ultra and 70% of this board were probably the same 10% who thought Palin bombed at the RNC convention.

[Poundingtherock]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=36ee8fde-58bf-4027-a75b-b29d86b66b92

You just admitted that you pretty much have no credibility when it comes to judging a speech or Palin.  Your opinion is shared by around 17%.

[Poundingtherock]

So Pbrower and the rest of the 10% who didn't think her convention speech was great are now claiming that we should ignore the polls that show her trailing to Obama by at most 7 points on average (average of last 5 matchup polls).

In case you missed the polling from the last debate, she performed roughly as well in the Pew poll, which is heavily left-leaning, as Obama did in his first debate.  So the idea that she would not perform well in a debate is a mythical creation of the 10% who didn't think her convention speech was great  and not based on any real polling.

The idea that Obama could run any ad to drive up her negatives is comical.  Everyone knows her negatives.  What Obama is getting against her now is pretty much all he's ever going to get against her.  If he's not at 50% now against her, he won't be in a couple of years and running ads agaisnt won't do anyting considering everyone already knows her negatives.  After Delaware and Alaska, the old incumbent is screwed if under 50% may have more validity and it seems to have a lot of validity in an Obama-Palin contest.

[Poundingtherock]

Sharron Angle will clearly defeat Harry Reid on November 2nd.  Barack obama's favorable/unfavorable numbers are the same as Harry Reid's favorable/unfavorable numbers in Nevada according to Mason-Dixon.  PPP, a Democrat Party pollster, said that Obama was dragging down Reid.  Magellan, a solid Republican pollster, has his approval rating in the mid-30s.  People in Nevada personally and professionally dislike Barack obama just as much as they personally and professionally dislike harry reid.   All the credible pollsters from Nevada point to Obama being just as weak professionally and personally as Reid with the silver state's voters.  Mason-Dixon's numbers were among registered voters, so you cannot just say the likely voter screen is hurting Obama.

I think most people would agree that Palin is stronger than Sharron angle.  Given that Angle will defeat Reid this November, why wouldn't Palin defeat Obama given that she's stronger than Angle  and that Reid is no weaker than Obama personally and professionally with Nevadans?

[Poundingtherock]

Her favorable/unfavorable numbers are better than Obama's in Florida according to Susquehana.

While she's overwhelmingly popular in the state, Obama is overwhelmingly unpopular in the state.  Susquehana had Obama at 34/51 favorable/unfavorable in Alan Grayson's congressional district, a district that pretty much is in line with the state average.  There's no reason to believe that Obama's numbers are better or worse statewide than what he's polling in Grayson's district.  Her numbers were 43/49 statewide.

Once again, it appears that Rick Scott will defeat Alex Sink.  Palin is clearly stronger than alleged con-man Rick Scott.  Obama is clearly weaker than a strong Democrat Party nominee like Alex Sink.  If Scott beats Sink, then Palin would defeat obama.