Dick Morris: GOP lacks imagination; could be gaining 100 seats rather than 73

[Torie]

In Dick's world, 73 is where it is at, but it could be GOP +100 if only the party just wanted more.

And you thought I was on steroids. I mean, I am in the 50-60 range myself, but we just don't really know. So much is up in the air.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Yeah, Dick Morris is not a serious prognosticator.

[Mr.Phips]

First, he should get his numbers right.  There are 256 House Democrats, not 239 and there are not 160 Democratic seats in play.  And there are not 54 Democratic seats where Republicans lead Democrats unless you count polls like that online poll that had Chakka Fattah losing to a Republican in Philiadelphia.

[tmthforu94]

Haha, wow. Currently, I only have us between 35-45.

[Sam Spade]

Dick is nuts.    Any GOP gain over 60 seats would be the biggest swing since 1980, in my view.  Any GOP gain over 70 seats would likely be viewed in the same breath as 1894, 1932 and 1980 over time.

I doubt either occurs right now - I don't see it in the numbers.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

[Lunar]

Guys, to repeat, Morris thought Obama would win Arkansas.  He thought West Virginia, Louisiana, and Arizona would be tossups.  He thought Mississippi was more competitive than Florida.

And you want to even bother refuting his analysis of 2010?



a random homeless dude in the subway could do a better job

[Lunar]

I guess what's more: if you don't understand why white Southerners in West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee didn't back Obama at the same level as Clinton, how can you be trusted to evaluate Congressional seats in 2010, where many if not most of the key seats are in exactly these types of areas?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm actually trying to find a logic in Morris' 2008 map...

Obama did best in the South in states like GA, SC, MS etc etc, where there are a higher proportion of AAs... TN and KY...AR? far fewer blacks and states that he lost by nearly 20%..

I really... really hate to be all Opebo on this but I think race is a bigger issue in TN, AR, WV... than we would like to think about.

[Ogre Mage]

Why can't I make as much money as Dick Morris does while making such wildly inaccurate political predictions?  Perhaps visiting too many hookers has affected his brain.

[DrScholl]

I think the race issue is too easy of an explanation. Obama did almost as well as Kerry did in Tennessee and West Virginia, did better than him in Kentucky.

[Lunar]

I think the race issue is too easy of an explanation. Obama did almost as well as Kerry did in Tennessee and West Virginia, did better than him in Kentucky.

Obama also had more money than he knew what to do with and was advertising in Kentucky to reach nearby media markets

[Dgov]

He Probably figured there would be a Clinton-esque pattern.  Kentucky, WV, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas are all states Clinton did particularly well in for a Democrat, and Morris is a very Clinton-era politico.

That being said, Democrats currently hold something on the order of 50 Seats McCain won in 2008, so adding on about 50 more swing districts to that isn't completely impossible.

Likely?  No.  But not impossible right now.

[J. J.]

Haha, wow. Currently, I only have us between 35-45.

My range.

[cinyc]

First, he should get his numbers right.  There are 256 House Democrats, not 239 and there are not 160 Democratic seats in play.  And there are not 54 Democratic seats where Republicans lead Democrats unless you count polls like that online poll that had Chakka Fattah losing to a Republican in Philiadelphia.

Dick Morris is usually wrong, but he is right about some things.   In particular, he probably has more access to internal/special interest group polling than the rest of us.   He may know of 54 Democratic seats where Republicans lead Democrats in that polling.   Remember - we all ridiculed him for claiming the DioGuardi win would put the NY seat in play - and polls now show DioGuardi within single digits of Gillibrand.

100 seats is wildly optimistic - but if you reach for the stars and get the moon, it's not that bad.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Dick Morris can imagine the Republicans picking up 500 seats in the House.

[minionofmidas]

There are, by my count, approximately 90-95 Dem-held seats where God (R) would have to be considered the favorite against Jeffrey Dahmer (D).

[Nichlemn]

What do you think would be necessary for a 100 seat gain? Another stock market crash would help, but how big would it need to be?

[Dgov]

There are, by my count, approximately 90-95 Dem-held seats where God (R) would have to be considered the favorite against Jeffrey Dahmer (D).

Well Charlie Cook has 110 Democratic-held seats considered at least plausibly competitive, so it's not that unlikely. 

[J. J.]

Dick Morris may very well be right, for 2012.  He's not for 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

Dick Morris may very well be right, for 2012.  He's not for 2010.

For 2012?  With the economy likely surging back and Obama leading the ballot?

[tpfkaw]

I think Morris is a hack - but he is right.  The GOP house strategy so far has been quite conservative, and the potential gains could be greater if they were willing to invest more in slightly off-the-radar races.

[Rowan]

Has Dick Morris ever been right about anything?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I like how he had WV as a tossup and Arkansas as lean D. You would think he would put it the other way around if anything.

[tpfkaw]

Has Dick Morris ever been right about anything?

He said NY-Special was a potential close race this year when everyone was predicting a Gillibrand blowout.