Dealing with -2 Seats if all NY Congressional Democrats Win

[Lunar]

If Arcuri. Murphy, Owens, and the whole gang win reelection in 2012, what seats are on the chopping block for a partisan gerrymander and/or independent commission

[muon2]

Demographically, this was the likely scenario 3-4 years ago. Based on county changes at that time it looked like one seat would have to be removed from western NY and one from NYC. My guess is that would still be the case today, so one would ask which incumbents are most on the outs with the party.

[Lunar]

Well, Arcuri & McMahon were the only two no votes on Healthcare, but it's not like you can do much with  the Staten Island district

[Dgov]

If Arcuri. Murphy, Owens, and the whole gang win reelection in 2012, what seats are on the chopping block for a partisan gerrymander and/or independent commission

For starters, eliminating Rangel would probably be a net benefit for the Democratic party, especially given his district is approaching Majority-Hispanic status anyway.  The current 3rd would be redrawn to be more Republican to help shore up Bishop and Isreal (not that the latter really needs it though), and the 10th and 11th districts will likely move South to take some of the Conservative areas of South Brooklyn to shore up NY-13.

As for the upstate districts, the 26th is actually the most likely to go, but given that it's a Republican one and that the territory would make another district in the area considerably more Republican, it would be beneficial for Louise Slaughter to give up here gerrymandered-safe District to keep at least NY-28, NY-27, and NY-25 likely Democratic.

[Brittain33]

If we're talking about eliminating a seat downstate, we have to start with Ackerman's seat moving completely out of Long Island based on Nassau/Suffolk falling below the threshold needed for four seats. At that point, dividing up either Ackerman's or Crowley's seat and redistributing it to enable other districts to maintain population makes sense, particularly to Weiner's advantage. Prior to 2002, Lowey represented parts of NYC, so she could easily return to the Bronx to soak up some population.

[Brittain33]

For starters, eliminating Rangel would probably be a net benefit for the Democratic party, especially given his district is approaching Majority-Hispanic status anyway.  

Have you thought about what it would look like to eliminate the 15th district? Geography would seem to make it difficult to avoid having a seat based in Upper Manhattan.

[Brittain33]

As for the upstate districts, the 26th is actually the most likely to go, but given that it's a Republican one and that the territory would make another district in the area considerably more Republican, it would be beneficial for Louise Slaughter to give up here gerrymandered-safe District to keep at least NY-28, NY-27, and NY-25 likely Democratic.

Louise Slaughter formerly represented a lean D district composed of most of Monroe County and she'd happily go back to that, although she's so advanced in years now that redistricting really won't be about her moving forward but whoever succeeds her from Rochester. It would be easy for Democrats to restore something of the 1990s status quo while combining the 26th and 29th into a solid Republican district and having a Monroe County district, a Dem district in Niagara Falls and Buffalo, and a lean D district in Buffalo and hinterlands minus the most Republican suburbs.

I haven't given any thought to what eliminating NY-29 and NY-5 does to contorted districts like NY-24 and Hinchey's.

[minionofmidas]

Well, Arcuri & McMahon were the only two no votes on Healthcare, but it's not like you can do much with  the Staten Island district

Sure you can. Every New York Democrat has the moral right to having a sliver of Staten in his constituency. Seriously though... I'd prefer all the monstrous-looking districts gone and starting from scratch, but it's no more going to happen than my first suggestion. I'm not sure how much of the eliminated seat needs to come from NYC, exactly - not all of it, I think?

Dgov is right upstate. Slaughter is ancient, her district is a monstrosity, and removing it vastly increases D chances all around it.

[muon2]

I've looked at the upstate districts and can make all but one of them 55-57% for Obama. That might be the Dems best strategy for an upstate map, since trying to get them all probably puts too many at risk in a bad year. This map keeps every incumbent in a separate district, except for Owens who ends up with Tonko, though with a slight switch he could easily be placed in Murphy's district instead.

[Verily]

I'm not sure Louise Slaughter could win that NY-26, though. You could make it a little more Democratic by moving Elmira into NY-22 and then taking some of Orleans County into NY-24. Also, there are some very Democratic towns in Ontario and Livingston Counties (Geneseo, e.g.) that could be "liberated".

[minionofmidas]

I'm not sure Louise Slaughter could win that NY-26, though.

Uh, why not?

[muon2]

I'm not sure Louise Slaughter could win that NY-26, though. You could make it a little more Democratic by moving Elmira into NY-22 and then taking some of Orleans County into NY-24. Also, there are some very Democratic towns in Ontario and Livingston Counties (Geneseo, e.g.) that could be "liberated".

According to Vote Smart she lives in Fairport which is on the east side of Rochester. That puts her in the CD 23 I drew. That district is slightly more D than my CD 26.

I didn't try to micromanage individual precincts at this stage except to get population equality. Once my district was in the target range I let it go. Generally a shift of less than a percent would wash out after a couple of years do to normal population mobility.

[Bacon King]

What about the two seats held by Republicans? How crazy of a gerrymander would that need to be in order to work?

[Verily]

I'm not sure Louise Slaughter could win that NY-26, though.

Uh, why not?

She's really left-wing. Just like you wouldn't want to put someone like Pete Stark in a sub-60% Obama district. I suppose "would" is better than "could", though.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

John LaFalce held a district exactly like that for years, and he wasn't much more conservative than Slaughter.  Trivia:  Goldwater running mate William Miller also held that seat until 1964.

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I'm not sure Louise Slaughter could win that NY-26, though.

Uh, why not?

She's really left-wing. Just like you wouldn't want to put someone like Pete Stark in a sub-60% Obama district. I suppose "would" is better than "could", though.

Hinchey is pretty liberal, too, but I think they'd be able to survive.

[muon2]

I looked at the downstate portion of the map. In order to preserve the 3 LI black (CDs 6, 10, and 11) and 1 Hispanic (CD 12) seats it ate up one of the white districts, and the easiest one was to move was CD 9. Elsewhere I divided the Bronx to create 2 Hispanic (CDs 7, 16) and 1 black (CD 15). As with my upstate map I set every district to have at least a 55% vote for Obama. Other than the majority-minority districts, only CDs 8 and 14 exceed 56% for Obama.

[Lunar]

Thanks for the maps Muon, great stuff.

Does CD9 stretch across 5 counties?

[muon2]

Thanks for the maps Muon, great stuff.

Does CD9 stretch across 5 counties?

Yep, it uses heavily D areas in Westchester and Queens to offset R areas in Suffolk. The Bronx and Nassau are mostly just for connections. I'm not sure Weiner would like losing his district, and would now up against King since much of the 9th was added to the 3rd.

[minionofmidas]

Ugh. What a monstrosity.

[muon2]

Ugh. What a monstrosity.

I know. I can't do much about the minority districts. By losing two districts, the remaining ones grow substantially. The 12th is already stretched out to be Hispanic-majority, and the increased population requirement makes it worse. The 3 LI black districts are just at 51% and there's not any way to make them more compact and keep the majority.

The other districts could be more compact and maintain natural communities of interest if I took away partisan considerations. But since, the hypothesis was a map to favor Dems, I set the 55% threshold from the 2008 election as an arbitrary goal.

[Torie]

Ugh. What a monstrosity.

I know. I can't do much about the minority districts. By losing two districts, the remaining ones grow substantially. The 12th is already stretched out to be Hispanic-majority, and the increased population requirement makes it worse. The 3 LI black districts are just at 51% and there's not any way to make them more compact and keep the majority.

The other districts could be more compact and maintain natural communities of interest if I took away partisan considerations. But since, the hypothesis was a map to favor Dems, I set the 55% threshold from the 2008 election as an arbitrary goal.

Against the Obama numbers, I would think the Obama number would need to be more like 58% to keep the districts out of reasonable reach of the GOP, at least in some elections. I mean, just assuming it is an even election, you are down to about 51.5% from 55%, and New York is trending GOP vis a vis the nation at the moment to boot (the delta function is higher). So, I would think the Dems would give the GOP a couple of seats, to get the numbers up in the rest of the seats. It is not at all clear the Dems will hold the NY state senate in any event, so this exercise is highly subject to mootness.

[muon2]

Ugh. What a monstrosity.

I know. I can't do much about the minority districts. By losing two districts, the remaining ones grow substantially. The 12th is already stretched out to be Hispanic-majority, and the increased population requirement makes it worse. The 3 LI black districts are just at 51% and there's not any way to make them more compact and keep the majority.

The other districts could be more compact and maintain natural communities of interest if I took away partisan considerations. But since, the hypothesis was a map to favor Dems, I set the 55% threshold from the 2008 election as an arbitrary goal.

Against the Obama numbers, I would think the Obama number would need to be more like 58% to keep the districts out of reasonable reach of the GOP, at least in some elections. I mean, just assuming it is an even election, you are down to about 51.5% from 55%, and New York is trending GOP vis a vis the nation at the moment to boot (the delta function is higher). So, I would think the Dems would give the GOP a couple of seats, to get the numbers up in the rest of the seats. It is not at all clear the Dems will hold the NY state senate in any event, so this exercise is highly subject to mootness.

Though 55% is arbitrary, it represents the 5% boost in statewide numbers for Obama compared to Kerry. Since Kerry was a recent low mark in NY, it's not a bad threshold. I agree that it isn't a guarantee of a win.

To get to a 58% threshold probably means creating an extra upstate and LI district that lean R. That would make three statewide. Of course as you note, a split legislature negates the ability of the Dems to completely control the map.

[Brittain33]

muon2, I love your maps and the work you put into them. What I'm struggling with is the idea that New York would never do cross-multiple-county fajita strips like that, even if it would be necessary to have a certain minimum Dem performance in districts covering all of Long Island.

[muon2]

muon2, I love your maps and the work you put into them. What I'm struggling with is the idea that New York would never do cross-multiple-county fajita strips like that, even if it would be necessary to have a certain minimum Dem performance in districts covering all of Long Island.

I think there's nothing to stop it in NY, and partisan strip districts are an existing practice there. Just look at NY 28 in upstate, it's a 4-county strip to pack Dems.