Dealing with -2 Seats if all NY Congressional Democrats Win

[Smash255]

Thanks for the maps Muon, great stuff.

Does CD9 stretch across 5 counties?

Yep, it uses heavily D areas in Westchester and Queens to offset R areas in Suffolk. The Bronx and Nassau are mostly just for connections. I'm not sure Weiner would like losing his district, and would now up against King since much of the 9th was added to the 3rd.

None of the 9th covers that are.  The portion of Queens that you have in the 9th on that map is what is in the current 5h, not the 9th.  As far as King, not sure if he lives in the 2nd or 3rd (you have Seaford split between the 2nd. and 3rd and I'm not sure south in Seaford he lived), but with that map he likely runs in the 2nd not the 3rd.  Most of Massapequa, Seaford, Wantagh, all of Bethpage, Plainedge, Levittown, etc are in the 2nd on that map, and thats where is main base is.

[muon2]

Thanks for the maps Muon, great stuff.

Does CD9 stretch across 5 counties?

Yep, it uses heavily D areas in Westchester and Queens to offset R areas in Suffolk. The Bronx and Nassau are mostly just for connections. I'm not sure Weiner would like losing his district, and would now up against King since much of the 9th was added to the 3rd.

None of the 9th covers that are.  The portion of Queens that you have in the 9th on that map is what is in the current 5h, not the 9th. 

Actually I ended up with a piece of the current CD 9 in my 9. It's the area north of the
LIE in the current district. My real need was to eliminate one district to preserve the majority minority districts. CD 9 was the easiest to split, though other configurations were possible.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The base would probably matter in this case. As I've drawn them CDs 2 and 3 are very similar demographically. Both are 13% black and 12% Hispanic. CD 2 would have substantially better voter turnout though.

[Smash255]

Thanks for the maps Muon, great stuff.

Does CD9 stretch across 5 counties?

Yep, it uses heavily D areas in Westchester and Queens to offset R areas in Suffolk. The Bronx and Nassau are mostly just for connections. I'm not sure Weiner would like losing his district, and would now up against King since much of the 9th was added to the 3rd.

None of the 9th covers that are.  The portion of Queens that you have in the 9th on that map is what is in the current 5h, not the 9th. 

Actually I ended up with a piece of the current CD 9 in my 9. It's the area north of the
LIE in the current district. My real need was to eliminate one district to preserve the majority minority districts. CD 9 was the easiest to split, though other configurations were possible.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The base would probably matter in this case. As I've drawn them CDs 2 and 3 are very similar demographically. Both are 13% black and 12% Hispanic. CD 2 would have substantially better voter turnout though.
[/quote

Actually thinking about it a bit more, Ling would probably run in NY-3.  His base is stronger in NY-2, but in NY-3 he wouldn't be facing a n Incumbent Democrat.  In NY-2 he faces Steve Israel, which he would not win.  I think Ackerman would actually be the one to run in NY-9.  Aside from the Bronx and Westchester the district isn't that much different from NY-5 in the 90's. 

 I would put Weiner in NY-5.  Takes in a little more of  his current district, and is also very close to his home (or perhaps even covering his home).   Hard to tell where, McCarthy's home is, she lives in Mineola, which seems to be one of the border areas between the 4th and 5th.  She could run in either one, but the 4th probably takes in more of her current district, so she likely runs there.  If she would rather run in the 5th, it would be just as easy to have Weiner to run in the 4th, and again the 4th is much closer to Weiner's home than the 9th (in fact I think Forest Hills is in that narrow strip you have the 4th in ueens) if not its very close to it.

[muon2]

As far as King, not sure if he lives in the 2nd or 3rd (you have Seaford split between the 2nd. and 3rd and I'm not sure south in Seaford he lived), but with that map he likely runs in the 2nd not the 3rd.  Most of Massapequa, Seaford, Wantagh, all of Bethpage, Plainedge, Levittown, etc are in the 2nd on that map, and thats where is main base is.

The base would probably matter in this case. As I've drawn them CDs 2 and 3 are very similar demographically. Both are 13% black and 12% Hispanic. CD 2 would have substantially better voter turnout though.

Actually thinking about it a bit more, Ling would probably run in NY-3.  His base is stronger in NY-2, but in NY-3 he wouldn't be facing a n Incumbent Democrat.  In NY-2 he faces Steve Israel, which he would not win.  I think Ackerman would actually be the one to run in NY-9.  Aside from the Bronx and Westchester the district isn't that much different from NY-5 in the 90's. 

 I would put Weiner in NY-5.  Takes in a little more of  his current district, and is also very close to his home (or perhaps even covering his home).   Hard to tell where, McCarthy's home is, she lives in Mineola, which seems to be one of the border areas between the 4th and 5th.  She could run in either one, but the 4th probably takes in more of her current district, so she likely runs there.  If she would rather run in the 5th, it would be just as easy to have Weiner to run in the 4th, and again the 4th is much closer to Weiner's home than the 9th (in fact I think Forest Hills is in that narrow strip you have the 4th in ueens) if not its very close to it.

Don't forget about Lowey. She lives in the 9th as I drew it. The problem downstate is that with one district removed, either two Dems are in the same district, or one takes on King. Weiner lives in Queens, but was born in Brooklyn, and his district is split between those areas, so I don't know which is the stronger base.