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Author Topic: FL-08/Susquehanna: Taliban Dan beats Grayson  (Read 1504 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: September 29, 2010, 06:47:27 am »
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http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/poll-obama-democrats-poised-lose-grayson-house-seat

Daniel Webster (R) - 43
Alan Grayson (D) - 36
Peg Dunmire (Tea) - 6
George Metcalfe (I) - 3

Favorables:

Grayson's favorables are way underwater at 34/51.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2010, 06:49:58 am »
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Doing pretty good for such favs (and might hold on. Though it's not a clean toss-up or anything.) What's the issue with his opponent?
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2010, 06:50:36 am »
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I thought Grayson would be in a better position...
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2010, 07:05:09 am »
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Grayson's favorables are way underwater at 34/51.

But he's so charming!*

*to hardcore partisan Dems in a lean Republican district
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Rowan
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2010, 07:15:45 am »
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Doing pretty good for such favs (and might hold on. Though it's not a clean toss-up or anything.) What's the issue with his opponent?

Been a politician for like 30 years. Not good in this climate.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2010, 07:16:30 am »
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If Grayson had stuck to the populist image that got him elected rather than turning into the Congressional equivalent of a Democratic Underground poster, he might be doing better. He did a brilliant ad in 2008 about the billions of dollars "lost" in Iraq which I can't find on youtube. Now he's like the Democratic equivalent of Michele Bachmann, except not in an otherwise-safe district.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2010, 07:32:26 am »
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I think the DU persona was always there. Perhaps not as far in the foreground.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2010, 09:08:59 am »
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I thought he would be doing worse.
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2010, 09:22:12 am »
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If Grayson had stuck to the populist image that got him elected rather than turning into the Congressional equivalent of a Democratic Underground poster, he might be doing better. He did a brilliant ad in 2008 about the billions of dollars "lost" in Iraq which I can't find on youtube. Now he's like the Democratic equivalent of Michele Bachmann, except not in an otherwise-safe district.

Bachmann's district isn't particularly safe either.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2010, 09:23:30 am »
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If Grayson had stuck to the populist image that got him elected rather than turning into the Congressional equivalent of a Democratic Underground poster, he might be doing better. He did a brilliant ad in 2008 about the billions of dollars "lost" in Iraq which I can't find on youtube. Now he's like the Democratic equivalent of Michele Bachmann, except not in an otherwise-safe district.

Bachmann's district isn't particularly safe either.
It's not lopsided. That doesn't mean it isn't safe (especially not "otherwise safe"). It's suburban partisan heaven. Actually, so is this seat to an extent.
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2010, 09:49:34 am »
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Hard to imagine him surviving with favorables like that. His strategy of running like a reverse Republican is interesting though, we'll see.
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2010, 09:54:34 am »
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Hard to imagine him surviving with favorables like that. His strategy of running like a reverse Republican is interesting though, we'll see.

It's not a strategy. It's who he is.
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Rowan
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2010, 10:01:07 am »
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Hard to imagine him surviving with favorables like that. His strategy of running like a reverse Republican is interesting though, we'll see.

It's not a strategy. It's who he is.

A crazy?
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2010, 10:09:39 am »
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Hard to imagine him surviving with favorables like that. His strategy of running like a reverse Republican is interesting though, we'll see.

It's not a strategy. It's who he is.

A crazy?
An angry uberpartisan with a gift for formulations... which is not actually a good thing in a career politician (not from the career standpoint, that is.)
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2010, 10:32:09 am »
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He'll probably be back in 2012, mostly because The Republicans are likely to create a new Safe D Seat in the Orlando Area, and he has enough of a partisan following to be able to win the primary.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2010, 10:38:28 am »
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He'll probably be back in 2012, mostly because The Republicans are likely to create a new Safe D Seat in the Orlando Area.
Not if they can at all help it. These are Florida Republicans we're talking about.
If they can win the 8th and 24th this year, they'll try to shore their new incumbents up. If either Grayson or Kosmas somehow survives (unlikely but certainly not impossible), a safeish D seat in the area becomes rather more probable (though still not certain)... but it would be taken. Where does that leave a retread? Nowhere.

Oh wait. Are Republicans going to be in control? Hardly dried and dusted, is it? Any bipartisan compromise is indeed likely to create a D seat in Orlando.
 
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2010, 12:28:03 pm »
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He'll probably be back in 2012, mostly because The Republicans are likely to create a new Safe D Seat in the Orlando Area.
Not if they can at all help it. These are Florida Republicans we're talking about.
If they can win the 8th and 24th this year, they'll try to shore their new incumbents up. If either Grayson or Kosmas somehow survives (unlikely but certainly not impossible), a safeish D seat in the area becomes rather more probable (though still not certain)... but it would be taken. Where does that leave a retread? Nowhere.

Oh wait. Are Republicans going to be in control? Hardly dried and dusted, is it? Any bipartisan compromise is indeed likely to create a D seat in Orlando.
 

I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans.  For starters, it helps them immensely to shift the 3rd West from Jacksonville towards Tallahassee (and ensure the 2nd becomes vastly more Republican) instead of Orlando, and then cover the Liberal parts of Orange and Osceola and Volusia counties to help keep the 8th and 24th in Republican hands.

So, doing so flips a Democratic seat and solidifies republican majorities in two other seats.  That's what i would call a smart bet on their part.  Also, Orange county voted for Obama by about 85,000 votes (more than McCain's margin in Orange County, CA), so it's close to impossible to draw a map where none of the Orlando districts are Obama-majority.
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2010, 12:38:08 pm »
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I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans.  For starters, it helps them immensely to shift the 3rd West from Jacksonville towards Tallahassee (and ensure the 2nd becomes vastly more Republican) instead of Orlando, and then cover the Liberal parts of Orange and Osceola and Volusia counties to help keep the 8th and 24th in Republican hands.

That would be a rational thing for them to do, but I wonder, can they draw a VRA district that also includes Tallahassee and Gadsden County without getting too spindly?
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2010, 05:22:39 pm »
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Grayson could have won this one if he took his campaign seriously.
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2010, 05:36:01 pm »
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Grayson could have won this one if he took his campaign seriously.

This is how he takes things seriously. This is who Grayson is.
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Dgov
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2010, 05:37:13 pm »
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I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans.  For starters, it helps them immensely to shift the 3rd West from Jacksonville towards Tallahassee (and ensure the 2nd becomes vastly more Republican) instead of Orlando, and then cover the Liberal parts of Orange and Osceola and Volusia counties to help keep the 8th and 24th in Republican hands.

That would be a rational thing for them to do, but I wonder, can they draw a VRA district that also includes Tallahassee and Gadsden County without getting too spindly?

Well, it's already a finger district, so I don't think it'll be too much of a problem.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2010, 05:47:05 pm »
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I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans.  For starters, it helps them immensely to shift the 3rd West from Jacksonville towards Tallahassee (and ensure the 2nd becomes vastly more Republican) instead of Orlando, and then cover the Liberal parts of Orange and Osceola and Volusia counties to help keep the 8th and 24th in Republican hands.

That would be a rational thing for them to do, but I wonder, can they draw a VRA district that also includes Tallahassee and Gadsden County without getting too spindly?

FL-03 isn't VRA protected, it was only 49% black when it was drawn.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2010, 05:56:20 pm »
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Grayson could have won this one if he took his campaign seriously.

This is how he takes things seriously. This is who Grayson is.
Have you seen his ads from 2008? He's a formidable opponent when he doesn't troll.
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« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2010, 11:14:50 pm »
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I'd support Grayson for President in 2016. Can't believe I'd ever support someone from Florida!
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2010, 04:06:25 am »
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I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans. 
Available evidence does not suggest that to be possible.
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it's close to impossible to draw a map where none of the Orlando districts are Obama-majority.
That's not going to be necessary. Both districts as exist now voted for Republican Representatives in 2006, and there's still a number of safe (if only due to Dem lack of organizational strength, otherwise they'd be leaners) R seats around in central Florida; that's all you need to know.
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