FL-08/Susquehanna: Taliban Dan beats Grayson

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/poll-obama-democrats-poised-lose-grayson-house-seat

Daniel Webster (R) - 43
Alan Grayson (D) - 36
Peg Dunmire (Tea) - 6
George Metcalfe (I) - 3

Favorables:

Grayson's favorables are way underwater at 34/51.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Grayson had stuck to the populist image that got him elected rather than turning into the Congressional equivalent of a Democratic Underground poster, he might be doing better. He did a brilliant ad in 2008 about the billions of dollars "lost" in Iraq which I can't find on youtube. Now he's like the Democratic equivalent of Michele Bachmann, except not in an otherwise-safe district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans.  For starters, it helps them immensely to shift the 3rd West from Jacksonville towards Tallahassee (and ensure the 2nd becomes vastly more Republican) instead of Orlando, and then cover the Liberal parts of Orange and Osceola and Volusia counties to help keep the 8th and 24th in Republican hands.

That would be a rational thing for them to do, but I wonder, can they draw a VRA district that also includes Tallahassee and Gadsden County without getting too spindly?

FL-03 isn't VRA protected, it was only 49% black when it was drawn.