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Author Topic: UPDATED - Oct 5th - The Vorlon's "Best Guess" Senate analysis Thread  (Read 3378 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: September 29, 2010, 04:02:52 pm »

Last Update: October 5th, 2010



I don't think this IS a close race, but there is just enough possibility it could become a close race that we should keep an eye on it.

I believe the current polling showing the Dem up 3 and 5 in the last two polls is a bit of a "dead cat bounce" for the GOP.

McMahon is, by most accounts, running a pretty decent race, and $50 million is a LOT of money in Connecticut.

That being said, what I suspect is REALLY happening is the GOP faithful who have not had a real chance at a seat here for, well since PRESCOTT Bush won the seat in 1956 (?) - these excited GOPers are thus getting counted as  likely in the Likely Voter polls, while the bulk of the Dem base is still asleep.

When the Dems wake up and see the race is, well, a race, the polls get back to sanity (IMHO)

UPDATE - Newest PPP says the D is up 12%, Rasmussen follows up with a +10.

Pretty much as predicted, this seat now shifts back to a "Likely" D.


Bottom line: - I don't believe it. - Likely Dem

Democratic Hold



Both candidates have had minor blips in the past month, both getting over the magic 50% mark a few times.

Murray whacked Rossi really hard with a well done and very extensive ad buy that seemed to catch Rossi a bit flat footed. Rossi is on the air now and seems to be clawing back a bit of ground.

Rossi has been within 1 and 2% in the last two polls, and the race looks to be stabilizing as a dogfight with Murray a slight favorite.

September 30th update: - Rassmussen's new poll has the race tied Rossi 48 / Murray 47 - Rasmussen historically pulls a few points to the GOP side in Washington State, so I'll stick with Murray by a couple, at least for now....

Washington is trending to the Democrats as Seattle becomes an every larger percentage of the state pie.  

Rossi's biggest, I won't say negative, but maybe a lack of a positive, is that he is not a fresh face despite never having won statewide office.  He has run and lost a few times, so he is not "new" anymore.

An oddball item about Washington is that total votes by party in the primary (historically anyway) seems to predict very well the general election.  Like all rules of thumb, this works really well until, well, it doesn't work.  But based upon this tidbit, November should be VERY close.

The GOP national committee has committed $1.7 million to this race, and they think it's winnable, the ad buys have been confirmed (ie paid for) so they are not just "placeholder" reservations.

Rasmussen and SUSA are the only two polls that overlap both candidates ad buys, so the data on the ground is pretty thin.

Bottom line:  It's a big GOP wave, and while I suspect Murray may get her toes a bit wet, I don't think she gets drowned. - On an even money bet, I'd take Murray.  Give me 2 to 1 odds, I'd take Rossi.

Democratic Hold



UPDATE - October 5th: - The Song Remains the same....

SUSA and Rasmussen say Boxer +3 and +4 with Boxer's support level at 47 and 49%.......

This race might be closer than it looks. 48% average in the polls for Boxer is right on the borderline that suggests an election day surprise.

If Boxer is not at say 48.5% average going in to election day, I think she loses.

So Boxer is ahead by 6 or 7 on average in the polls, has a ton of cash, big Union support, and Fiorina is running, at best, a generic campaign.

So why do the polls say this is still a race?

Sometimes a graph is worth a thousand words.

This is a graph of every poll for the last 18 months or so:



If you throw out the partisan hack polls, Boxer has never (except for 1 "Field" poll 18 months ago) exceeded 50%

Boxer is going to get her "almost" 50%...  Survey USA says 49%, Rasmussen says 47
Latest Field poll says 47 as well...

So +/- 52% of voters would LOVE to have a candidate to defeat Boxer, they just have not found a candidate.

Look back a year ago.. even a year ago she was polling 47-48%... Boxer does not have Majority support, plurality yes, but majority no.....

I am not saying Boxer will lose, because Fiorina has a lot of big hurdles to overcome.

Her campaign to date has been, at best, pretty generic and lacking creativity.
California takes a sh*tload of money and with Whitman spending like a drunken Congressperson it's hard to get noticed, but still... Boxer is not over 50%..

If you look back at history a huge percentage of the election night "surprises" have polled exactly like this race looks today...  Incumbent up 6 or 7%, averaging 48ish in the polls....

As of now, I would still bet on Boxer, but if 2 weeks from today Boxer is not averaging 50% or better, I think Fiorina has a legitimate shot.



Last two polls actually show Raese up 2 and 3 points respectively.

Update: - Newest Rassmussen shows an (R) lead of 5 points... thats three in a row where Raese is up.  I am starting to believe, especially with Manchin down to 43% - A breaking semi-scandal regarding state contracts to one of Manchins people  can't help Manchin, it may not "hurt" per se, but it might innoculate Raese a bit against some attacks.

Manchins problem is not Raese, it's Obama.  

I suspect Manchin distancing himself from Obama actually has a decent chance to work.  He has already said he supports a partial repeal of ObamaCare (whatever that means.. He is "against the bad parts, and in favor of the good parts" , best I can tell....)

Manchin is a known and liked commodity, if he stands up, says "this is what I believe in and will vote for in the Senate", I suspect he will be fine.

Let's see a few more polls before we hyperventilate on this one.



UPDATE: Angle's "I'm crazy but taking my medication again!" tactic might be working, maybe... Up 49/46 in a Rasmussen...  It's one poll... let's wait and see, but I think Angle is slowly gaining a bit of an upper hand.

The good news is that one of these candidates will lose.

The bad news is that one of these candidates will win.

Yikes, what a pair!

Reid has been smart and made this a race about Sharron Angle, if this race is about Reid or Obama, Reid is dead.

Initially, Angle took the bait and went negative as well, but has gradually shifted to a semi-positive (perhaps not in absolute terms, but at least comparatively) campaign as an attempt to at least partially rehabilitate herself.

Angle has received some RNSC "babysitters" consultants to assist her campaign, and they seem to be helping.

If we look at the Mason Dixon polls (which I trust in Nevada)

LVRJ/Mason-Dixon   9/20 - 9/22   625 LV   43   43   Tie
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon   9/7 - 9/9   625 LV   46   44   Reid +2
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon   8/23 - 8/25   625 LV   45   44   Reid +1
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon   8/9 - 8/11   625 LV   46   44   Reid +2
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon   7/26 - 7/28   625 RV   43   42   Reid +1

We see Reid stuck at 45% or below, and certainly no movement in his direction.

Rasmussen Reports   9/28 - 9/28   750 LV   48   47   Reid +1
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen   9/18 - 9/18   1000 LV   45   46   Angle +1
Rasmussen Reports   9/13 - 9/13   750 LV   48   48   Tie
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen   9/11 - 9/11   1000 LV   44   45   Angle +1
Rasmussen Reports   8/16 - 8/16   750 LV   48   50   Angle +2

Rassmussen tells the same story, but when he slams the leaners Reid gets up to 48% (Mason Dixon screens to a slightly larger LV pool, but does NOT slam the leaners, while Rasmussen has a slightly tighter screen but DOES slam the undecided to get a lean, ~~usually~~ gets you to just about the same place)

This is the closest race in the nation IMHO, and my best ~~guess~~ is this is the logic that will decide it among the 3 or 4% who are undecided...

Angle is crazy, shes a loon, but if we elect her Senator, she will be 1% of 1/2 of 1/3rd of the Government.  She's not going to abolish Social Security, start teaching creationism, or start flogging Gay people on her own....

Harry Reid is actively helping implement the Obama agenda that is destroying Nevada, and in the short term, Angle will help us stop this....


The longer this thing is tied, the better chance Angle has.

Her campaign is heading into "I'm not a complete wingnut" mode.  Folks will still think she's loony-tunes, but if she can convince people shes nuts, but has at least started taking her medication... she will likely prevail, however narrowly.

Be prepared to stay up very late on election night.....





Buck is starting to see some daylight here.

The last Rasmussen had him over 50%.

Other than a POS "fundraiser special" showing him down 3, the last 8 polls have all shown leads from 4 to 9%

Rasmussen Reports    - Buck +8
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen - Buck +4
CNN/Time    - Buck +5
Rasmussen Reports   9 - Buck +4
POS/FM3   - Bennet +3
Rasmussen Reports - Buck +4
Reuters/Ipsos   - Buck +9
Rasmussen Reports - Buck +5

More critically, Bennet is averaging 43%.  He has not polled better than 45% since August

In a year like 2010, a Democrat at 49% is no better than a 50/50 shot... at 43% they are in deep trouble.

Bottom Line: - Couple more polls decent polls for Buck and I'll be just about ready to call this one



« Last Edit: October 05, 2010, 10:22:42 am by The Vorlon »Logged

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Хahar
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2010, 04:04:46 am »
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The colors burn.
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2010, 08:41:52 am »
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LOL at the picture of Angle there. What are the big numbers in the circles counting down to?
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2010, 09:18:39 am »
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LOL at the picture of Angle there. What are the big numbers in the circles counting down to?

Probably ordering them in order of likelihood that Republicans would win it. So, if Angle wins, she will be the last of the Republicans' 48 seats. I imagine that Hoeven would be 42, for example.
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2010, 06:10:50 pm »
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I love the Illinois photo.
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2010, 09:12:10 pm »
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Still think Washington is above California in almost any circumstances (and maybe Connecticut - though less sure), but agree otherwise.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2010, 09:51:40 pm »

Still think Washington is above California in almost any circumstances (and maybe Connecticut - though less sure), but agree otherwise.

I actually have the GOP getting "KAL-E-Forn-Ya" before they get Washington, so we agree on that one....  I wanna see a lot more polls before I actually believe Connecticut is legitimately in play
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2010, 08:47:46 am »
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Still think Washington is above California in almost any circumstances (and maybe Connecticut - though less sure), but agree otherwise.

I actually have the GOP getting "KAL-E-Forn-Ya" before they get Washington, so we agree on that one....  I wanna see a lot more polls before I actually believe Connecticut is legitimately in play

You misread me - Washington falls before California, a position that I have held to for almost a year and a half now.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2010, 09:28:23 am »

Still think Washington is above California in almost any circumstances (and maybe Connecticut - though less sure), but agree otherwise.

I actually have the GOP getting "KAL-E-Forn-Ya" before they get Washington, so we agree on that one....  I wanna see a lot more polls before I actually believe Connecticut is legitimately in play

You misread me - Washington falls before California, a position that I have held to for almost a year and a half now.

I am a bit mixed up re Washington actually, the state has always polled very erratically.

California will be a pure turnout battle, there are no "undecided" votes in that state, it boils down to who gets their people to the polls.

You ~~might~~ be right re Washington/California.  Fiorina is turning out to be, at best, an average Candidate, and she was supposed to be self funding, but isn't.
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2010, 03:31:23 am »
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Except for Nevada, where I expect Reid to lose, I agree with the Election Projection analysis.

http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/senate10.php

With Nevada, that would make it a net gain of nine seats for the Republicans.

The folks at RealClearPolitics have essentially the same projection (no toss ups) as Election Projection.
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2010, 04:23:37 pm »
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Here is what I have from the GOP perspective:

Road kill:
 
IN, AR, NE

These are lost seats
 
Probable:
 
PA, WI, CO

The Republican candidates are maintaining a lead or pulling ahead.
 
Toss up:
 
IL, NV, WV, WA

All four could go to one party, but I expect a 50/50 split.
 
On a very good day:
 
CA, CN

Obama or the Democratic candidates have to make a serious mistake.

If O'Donnell really is a witch, and can put all the Democrats in DE to sleep for for all of Election Day, DE.

Best guess is an 8 seat GOP gain with the Senate being 49-49-2 but with the Democrats maintaining control (Sanders and Lieberman caucusing with the Democrats).
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