The Home Stretch

[specific_name]

In NY-19 Nan Hayworth beats John Hall. This is an R leaning district. I can't stand the idea of a rep. named Nan, but I'll live with it.

Obviously Paladino loses, but his idiotic campaign (I'm being polite) has been one of the highlights of the otherwise disturbing rise of this ideologically confused movement called the Tea Party.

The local races in my area are all tea party filled affairs as well, decided in closed primaries. So as an independent I didn't participate. The deaf polling ladies often get confused and think I said"Independence" when asked what party reg I have at voting time.

Meant a sea of blue, of course

Remember red is for the Communists

[Ogre Mage]

U.S. Senate:  Sen. Murray will win reelection.

WA-03:  Jaime Herrera (R) will defeat Denny Heck (D).

WA-01, 02, 04-09:  The incumbents will win reelection.

[Joe Biden 2020]

My beloved Texas will be a sea of red as usual on the state wide races. I live in TX-1 so no race there. There are probably only 2 congressional races that are competitive and Edwards is lagging badly so maybe only one. I am going to say the dems hold onto the border seat ( 23 ). I dont have a real good feel about that one way or the other

BTW, welcome to the forum!!

[Smash255]

Cuomo by 25,
 Gillibrand by 18,
Schumer by 30.
 In NY-3, I will vote for Kutler against King, but he will lose by 30 or so.
 Eric Schneiderman wins the AG race by 12 or so,
Dinapoli the Comptroller by 8.

The Dems had a good chance of picking up the 6th Senate district and knocking of Kemp Hannon who barely held on in 2008 against a no-name challenger (I lived in the 8th at the time), but with Dave Mejias getting arrested it put a major dent in that one.  Francesca Carlow could have given Hannon a run in another year, but even with the strong Dem top of the ticket, unlikely won't be able to be all that competitive this year.  Hannon by 12.

  Will be voting for Gorman against Assemblyman Joe Saladino in the 12th, but he doesn't have a shot in hell in what is one of the most GOP districts in the state.  Saladino by 40


The most competitive house district here is NY-1 (lived there when I was in college) Bishop over Altschuler by 6.

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Personally, I believe Askins could win, but it's an uphill climb.

Oklahoma has a history with the Democratic Party, and all statewide offices are held by Democrats.

That said, Fallin is running in a conservative state in a year when tea partiers will be coming out in large numbers (although some of them may not vote, because their fringe candidate, Brogdon, lost the primary).

Both Fallin and Askins have a lot going for them, and a lot of baggage (Democrat, DC insider, etc.).

It should be very close, OU put out a poll showing a close race a couple months back, and I DON'T TRUST RASMUSSEN.

[Franzl]

It should be very close, OU put out a poll showing a close race a couple months back, and I DON'T TRUST RASMUSSEN.

Your fault when you're proven wrong on November 2nd then. No way in hell is Fallin losing.

[-]

Okay. Then I'll be wrong.

I can see both of them winning, although Fallin has the edge.

When I was down in Oklahoma a week ago, I saw tons of Askins yard signs, but very little Fallin.

However, Fallin has been running several top-notch ads.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Why don't you trust Rasmussen? They're one of the best pollsters we have, plus they're extremely prolific(I know them being prolific doesn't impact their trustworthiness, but it is a good thing about them).

They really are not that bad at all, even if they do seem to release polls that lean towards the Republicans early in the cycle.

[Franzl]

When I was down in Oklahoma a week ago, I saw tons of Askins yard signs, but very little Fallin.

And if I walk through my town, I see maybe 20 Brady yard signs and none for Quinn....does that mean Brady will be getting near 100% of the vote in Alton, IL?

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Why don't you trust Rasmussen? They're one of the best pollsters we have, plus they're extremely prolific(I know them being prolific doesn't impact their trustworthiness, but it is a good thing about them).

They really are not that bad at all, even if they do seem to release polls that lean towards the Republicans early in the cycle.

They become trustworthy in the last week or so to save their image.

Rasmussen puts out low-quality polls, which are quicker, and explains why he is so prolific???

When I was down in Oklahoma a week ago, I saw tons of Askins yard signs, but very little Fallin.

And if I walk through my town, I see maybe 20 Brady yard signs and none for Quinn....does that mean Brady will be getting near 100% of the vote in Alton, IL?

No, that's not what I meant. Effective campaigns get their signs out quickly to sort of spread thier message.

[Psychic Octopus]

Fallin is going to destroy Askins. This is one that was written off a long time ago, and there is really no use debating it. When a pollster, even one that isn't as credible as other firms*, consistently is showing a candidate up by double digits, then the candidate trailing will lose. End of story.

*Not saying Rasmussen is not a credible firm, in fact, it is one of the best ones out there, even if Scott is a bit of a troll on occasions.

[RainMan05]

Yeah, and Dewey beat Truman.

[Franzl]

Rasmussen is a junk pollster.

Just saying something over and over again doesn't make it true.

[-]

Rasmussen is a junk pollster.

Just saying something over and over again doesn't make it true.

No, it doesn't, but it still is.

[TeePee4Prez]

Governor:  Tom Corbett (R) narrowly defeats Dan Onorato (D), but only by 52-47.  I hate saying this, but I think this will happen.

Senate:  Joe Sestak(D) surges from behind with a 51-47 victory over Pat Toomey (R).

PA-13:  Allyson Schwartz (D) defeats Carson Dee Adcock (R) 58-42

Nearby seats:

PA-7:  Pat Meehan (R) defeats Bryan Lentz (D) 52-45-3 (TP Indy Schneller)

PA-8:  Pat Murphy (D) holds onto seat over Mike Fitzpatrick 51-46-3 (TP Indy Lingenfelter and CP guy)

[tmthforu94]

Okay. Then I'll be wrong.

I can see both of them winning, although Fallin has the edge.

When I was down in Oklahoma a week ago, I saw tons of Askins yard signs, but very little Fallin.

However, Fallin has been running several top-notch ads.

Fallin was still leading by 8 in that poll. And it was way back in July. In July, Republicans were leading by less than that in Michigan. Does that mean Democrats are going to win there too? You don't even seem to think that, given you have Snyder comfortably winning. So you're contradicting your own self.

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It was 6 points, and it was the last reliable poll.

[tmthforu94]

It was 6 points, and it was the last reliable poll.

Are we talking about the same poll that had Edmondson leading Askins by 16 points?

[Beet]

Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 4%
Barbara Mikulski defeats Eric Wargotz by 16%
Chris Van Hollen defeats Mike Phillips by 28%

[HAnnA MArin County]

I still like to label the Missouri Senate race as a tossup, although deep down inside me, it disdains me to think that Papa Blunt will probably be our next U.S. Senator. That's all I've seen on the local news waves are his negative ads tying Robin Carnahan to Barack Obama, and I expect them to be quite effective, especially in the rural areas where Obama has never been popular and where the vote will be critical. Southwest Missouri will probably vote by more than two-to-one for Blunt, and I expect the turnout in the Democratic strongholds of Kansas City and St. Louis to be dismal, so while the optimist in me likes to think that Robin can pull it out, the realist in me predicts that Blunt will hold the seat by 3-5 points.

The only other statewide election is for our state auditor. I predict incumbent Susan Montee (D) will win reelection over Tom Schweich (R) by 2-5 points.

U.S. House of Representatives, of course, Jo Ann Gladney/Emerson (R) will win in a landslide, as she always does, although I expect her challenger hottie Tommy Sowers (D) could shave off a few points. She'll still win by anywhere from 65-70 percent of the vote.

No state senate election in my district, and the incumbent state representative (my ditz of a cousin) Shelley Keeney, who served as Rod Jetton's legislative district aide, is running unopposed but won't be getting my vote.

And then we have a few local offices where, of course, I'll vote for the Democrats.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

ID-1: Minnick is going to curb stomp Labrador by 10 to 12 points. There's Labrador signs up everywhere but they won't translate to votes. It just shows that my region, being an exurban/rich enclave, is a bastion of the tea party. Minnick's brutal ad against Labrador on immigration is all that he needs and with no effective response from Labrador, he'll cruise to re-election. The only problem is that there is absolutely no Democratic enthusiasm for Minnick. I don't think the "surprise wave" argument works here. Labrador is the worst possible candidate for northern Idaho, besides my area. He's ethnic, suburban, Mormon(big negative among evangelicals, not sure if they know/care though) and is from the Sali wing of Idaho Republicans. Ward might have been a dolt but he was a folksy, white dolt who was an empty suit.

Idaho Governor: Otter will win by 58-42 or so. Otter's popularity isn't as high as it could be and Allred is a fairly strong candidate. This race should turn out like every Idaho gubernatorial race over the past 10 years. Maybe if Allred ran in 2006, he could have won. While Brady was a moderate, Allred is conservative.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Governor: still holding out hope that Whitman will win, but I've come to terms with the fact that it's not likely. Not really comfortable with handicapping this race at the moment.

Senate: Boxer by about 8%.

House: Pelosi by 55%.

[Eraserhead]

Idaho Governor: Otter will win by 58-42 or so. Otter's popularity isn't as high as it could be and Allred is a fairly strong candidate. This race should turn out like every Idaho gubernatorial race over the past 10 years. Maybe if Allred ran in 2006, he could have won. While Brady was a moderate, Allred is conservative.

Allred seems like a pretty awful character.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinn by 5 and Giannoulias by 3

The PA senate race is over, Toomy is gonna be the next senator.