AK-Sen: Ivan Moore (D) sez Miller 43, McAdams 28, Murkowski 18

[Sam Spade]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/38480785/AK-Sen-Ivan-Moore

Just FYI, Ivan Moore is the infamous D pollster who did polls for KTUU during 2004 that consistently showed Knowles leading Murkowski, so caveat emptor.  No mention of Murkowski is made in the question.

Topline Numbers
Miller 43%
McAdams 28%
Murkowski 18%

[Eraserhead]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/38480785/AK-Sen-Ivan-Moore

Just FYI, Ivan Moore is the infamous D pollster who did polls for KTUU during 2004 that consistently showed Knowles leading Murkowski, so caveat emptor.  No mention of Murkowski is made in the question.

Topline Numbers
Miller 43%
McAdams 28%
Murkowski 18%

Well, here's the thing. Apparently they did a followup question where they mentioned that Murkowski would be a write-in option and here were the results:

Murkowski 43%
Miller 36%
McAdams 14%

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/30/murkowski_viable_as_write-in_candidate.html

[Whacker77]

I just don't see how these numbers are possible.  High name ID matters if your name is on the ballot, but her name won't be.  Honestly, I don't see how this race can be accurately polled.  I see her finishing in third and possible a distant third.

[Brittain33]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/38480785/AK-Sen-Ivan-Moore

Just FYI, Ivan Moore is the infamous D pollster who did polls for KTUU during 2004 that consistently showed Knowles leading Murkowski, so caveat emptor.  

How much of a lead did they show? Murkowski only narrowly defeated Knowles, and Republicans did better that year than predicted by a slight margin.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/38480785/AK-Sen-Ivan-Moore

Just FYI, Ivan Moore is the infamous D pollster who did polls for KTUU during 2004 that consistently showed Knowles leading Murkowski, so caveat emptor.  

How much of a lead did they show? Murkowski only narrowly defeated Knowles, and Republicans did better that year than predicted by a slight margin.

Consistently showed Knowles up 2-5, Murkowski won by 3.  My bigger complaint was, though, that KTUU put him out as being an Independent pollster when he's always been a Democratic pollster.

[tmthforu94]

From all the crazy polling, I'd consider this race to still be a toss-up/lean Republican.

[You kip if you want to...]

From all the crazy polling, I'd consider this race to still be a toss-up/lean Republican.

Lean Republican or lean Republican (write-in)?

[Mr. Morden]

I just don't see how these numbers are possible.  High name ID matters if your name is on the ballot, but her name won't be.  Honestly, I don't see how this race can be accurately polled.

Mark Blumenthal has a good column on this in HuffPuff:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/30/yet-another-alaska-poll-s_n_745844.html

He notes that in the Ivan Moore poll, the initial question is:

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with no mention of Murkowski, but 18% still said "I'm writing in Murkowski" or something like that, and those responses were recorded.  The follow up question was:

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and her support then jumped to 43%.  Obviously, that's a loaded way of putting the question, but it shows how the biggest variable in Murkowski's support is how good a job she does at voter education, letting people know that she's running a write in campaign, and what they need to do to vote for her.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Polling for a write-in candidate is just too hard to be reliable.  Plus, even if people actually write her in, they have to spell her name right... and that's just gonna be a whole other mess.

[Joe Republic]

Polling for a write-in candidate is just too hard to be reliable.  Plus, even if people actually write her in, they have to spell her name right... and that's just gonna be a whole other mess.

The Secretary of State, I believe, has already said that misspelled write-ins will be accepted if the intent was clear enough.  It'll be rather like the 'Shelley Draculac**nt Gibbs' situation in 2006.

[Whacker77]

I think the Lt. Governor said the name would in fact need to be spelled correctly.  Maybe newer information has been issued.

[cinyc]

I think the Lt. Governor said the name would in fact need to be spelled correctly.  Maybe newer information has been issued.

Last I heard, the Alaskan Department of Elections was seeking a legal opinion on what would and wouldn't be counted as a vote for Murkowski.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.adn.com/2010/09/11/1449989/alaska-ear.html

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That opinion may not be legally binding, but I think it's clear that they're at least intending to accept stuff like "Lisa Merkowsky".  As I understand it, Alaska law says it's a question of the intent of the voter, so being one or two letters off shouldn't matter.

[Whacker77]

"Intent of the voter."  I'm having terrible flashbacks to Florida.  I really hope Murkowski doesn't try and muck up the situation by clinging to her seat with misspelled names or other forms odd vote counting.

[Tender Branson]

http://www.adn.com/2010/09/11/1449989/alaska-ear.html

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That opinion may not be legally binding, but I think it's clear that they're at least intending to accept stuff like "Lisa Merkowsky".  As I understand it, Alaska law says it's a question of the intent of the voter, so being one or two letters off shouldn't matter.

That should be funny if the election is really close ...

BTW:

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[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Polling for a write-in candidate is just too hard to be reliable.  Plus, even if people actually write her in, they have to spell her name right... and that's just gonna be a whole other mess.

The Secretary of State, I believe, has already said that misspelled write-ins will be accepted if the intent was clear enough.  It'll be rather like the 'Shelley Draculac**nt Gibbs' situation in 2006.

Back when she declared her write-in candidacy, the media people were saying it'd have to be spelled correctly.