NM: Rasmussen: Martinez extends lead
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Author Topic: NM: Rasmussen: Martinez extends lead  (Read 1481 times)
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realisticidealist
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« on: October 01, 2010, 01:31:39 PM »

New Poll: New Mexico Governor by Rasmussen on 2010-10-16

Summary: D: 41%, R: 51%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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King
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2010, 05:03:43 PM »

Martinez has won.  There's an unraveling scandal on Denish now about having the state fly her husband Herb to represent her as Lt. Governor at some meetings.  Final nail in her coffin.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2010, 11:57:53 AM »

52-43 today.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2010, 11:59:01 AM »

This one's over, Martinez wins.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2010, 12:13:12 PM »

^^This. I do think Democratic turnout will be higher in New Mexico than what polls suggest, so it'll be a little closer. I'd say 52-47.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2010, 01:15:16 PM »

Yep. Denish is screwed.
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Vepres
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2010, 01:17:07 PM »

Martinez has won.  There's an unraveling scandal on Denish now about having the state fly her husband Herb to represent her as Lt. Governor at some meetings.  Final nail in her coffin.

What percentage of the Hispanic vote do you think she'll win? I've always thought Republicans would make some inroads with the community this year, and she is Hispanic herself.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2010, 02:03:09 PM »

Martinez has won.  There's an unraveling scandal on Denish now about having the state fly her husband Herb to represent her as Lt. Governor at some meetings.  Final nail in her coffin.

What percentage of the Hispanic vote do you think she'll win? I've always thought Republicans would make some inroads with the community this year, and she is Hispanic herself.

But then again, she is also staunchly anti-immigrant.
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Dgov
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2010, 06:16:02 PM »

Martinez has won.  There's an unraveling scandal on Denish now about having the state fly her husband Herb to represent her as Lt. Governor at some meetings.  Final nail in her coffin.

What percentage of the Hispanic vote do you think she'll win? I've always thought Republicans would make some inroads with the community this year, and she is Hispanic herself.

But then again, she is also staunchly anti-immigrant.

Anti-Illegal Immigrant you mean.  And that's not as much of a deal-breaker as you might think
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Dgov
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2010, 06:23:00 PM »

Martinez has won.  There's an unraveling scandal on Denish now about having the state fly her husband Herb to represent her as Lt. Governor at some meetings.  Final nail in her coffin.

What percentage of the Hispanic vote do you think she'll win? I've always thought Republicans would make some inroads with the community this year, and she is Hispanic herself.

Probably over 50% actually.  New Mexico Hispanics are some of the most Conservative in the US (one of the reasons a 47% Hispanic state is competitive), and they only voted for Kerry by single digits in 2004.  Martinez could probably Sweep the state outside of the Santa Fe and North Central areas.
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King
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2010, 04:52:59 PM »

Her name is enough to win the Hispanic vote.  Plus, John Sanchez won the GOP nomination for Lt. Gov so Martinez/Sanchez on the ballot and campaign signs is like the doublemint gum of vote leaching.

Immigration is actually not a deal breaker in NM.  Our border is very small compared to the other three states and while we are majority Hispanic, it's almost entirely native Hispanic that predates the Mexican-American War.  We don't have very large immigrant populations.  Combined with the poor economy and our liberal laws on drivers licenses are really the only attraction a Mexican illegal immigrant would have to the state. 

The two big issues in state right now are our high school dropout rate and drunk driving.
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2010, 05:13:52 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2010, 05:20:10 PM by cinyc »

Our border is very small compared to the other three states and while we are majority Hispanic, it's almost entirely native Hispanic that predates the Mexican-American War.  

New Mexico's border with Mexico (179.5 miles) is actually longer than California's (140.4 miles).  What makes New Mexico's border region different than the other states is that, with the exception of areas near El Paso, the Mexican border region in Chihuahua state is relatively uninhabited with few major roads parallelling the border and the geography once in New Mexico very mountainous, remote and inhospitable.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2010, 05:32:06 PM »

Can we just go ahead and call it for Martinez?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2010, 06:33:59 PM »

Her name is enough to win the Hispanic vote.  Plus, John Sanchez won the GOP nomination for Lt. Gov so Martinez/Sanchez on the ballot and campaign signs is like the doublemint gum of vote leaching.

Immigration is actually not a deal breaker in NM.  Our border is very small compared to the other three states and while we are majority Hispanic, it's almost entirely native Hispanic that predates the Mexican-American War.  We don't have very large immigrant populations.  Combined with the poor economy and our liberal laws on drivers licenses are really the only attraction a Mexican illegal immigrant would have to the state. 

The two big issues in state right now are our high school dropout rate and drunk driving.

Where are the really liberal Hispanic voters?  I've got NYC, CA, and C FL.  Am I missing anywhere?  I thought the Rio Grande Valley was more McCain than average for Hispanic areas, but I will need to double check that.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2010, 07:15:13 PM »

Her name is enough to win the Hispanic vote.  Plus, John Sanchez won the GOP nomination for Lt. Gov so Martinez/Sanchez on the ballot and campaign signs is like the doublemint gum of vote leaching.

Immigration is actually not a deal breaker in NM.  Our border is very small compared to the other three states and while we are majority Hispanic, it's almost entirely native Hispanic that predates the Mexican-American War.  We don't have very large immigrant populations.  Combined with the poor economy and our liberal laws on drivers licenses are really the only attraction a Mexican illegal immigrant would have to the state. 

The two big issues in state right now are our high school dropout rate and drunk driving.

Where are the really liberal Hispanic voters?  I've got NYC, CA, and C FL.  Am I missing anywhere?  I thought the Rio Grande Valley was more McCain than average for Hispanic areas, but I will need to double check that.

     CA Hispanics are fairly populist-leaning, actually. Part of the reason that social issues have very little salience in California.
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cinyc
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2010, 07:30:05 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2010, 07:39:21 PM by cinyc »

Where are the really liberal Hispanic voters?  I've got NYC, CA, and C FL.  Am I missing anywhere?  I thought the Rio Grande Valley was more McCain than average for Hispanic areas, but I will need to double check that.

Pew Hispanic didn't break down results by region in their most recent survey, but the most Republican-leaning Hispanic voters are native-born evangelical protestants.  Hispanics of Mexican origin are slightly more likely to be Republican than non-Mexicans.  So of I had to guess, I'd say second- and later-generation Hispanics of Mexican descent in the Southwest are the most conservative and one of the East Coast Carribean groups, perhaps Puerto Ricans, the most liberal.

...well, other than Castro-hating Cubans, who are the most Republican-leaning Hispanic group by far.
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King
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2010, 08:10:40 PM »

Where are the really liberal Hispanic voters?  I've got NYC, CA, and C FL.  Am I missing anywhere?  I thought the Rio Grande Valley was more McCain than average for Hispanic areas, but I will need to double check that.

Immigrants are more likely to be the really liberal ones as the easiest way for a poor immigrant to make it in a new country is with extensive government support.

New Mexican Hispanics are mostly comparable to white suburbanites.  There's a bunch of reasons for this.  Simplest answer being that they just weren't really oppressed into a minority group back in the territorial years; the Native Americans were considered the dreggs of society back then, so to speak. 

They were always integrated with the whites and so the culture and voting patterns aren't really off compared to them.  I even see it racially.  IMO the average New Mexican is about 2 shades lighter than a Latino from Arizona.  A lot of white blood.
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