Gay Marriage Amendment by CD in Ohio and Florida

[nclib]

Ohio 2004 (exact counts since Ohio spreadsheet is online):

No%

OH-11   48.38%
OH-15   47.42%
OH-10   46.13%
OH-12   42.50%
OH-1   41.98%
OH-14   41.83%
OH-9   41.37%
OH-13   40.95%
OH-17   40.43%
OH-3   38.49%
OH-2   36.30%
OH-16   35.55%
OH-7   34.42%
OH-8   32.00%
OH-5   31.35%
OH-18   31.22%
OH-6   30.37%
OH-4   29.00%

Somewhat surprised by the black-majority district bering the highest (yes the white areas in OH-11 could be solidly pro-gay, but there must have been sizeable % of blacks opposing the gay marriage ban).

Linear Regression:

Highest gay performances related to Kerry:

OH-15
OH-2
OH-14

Lowest gay performances related to Kerry:

OH-11 (deceptive b/c it was the only strong Kerry CD)
OH-17
OH-6
OH-9


Florida 2008 (I needed to do some estimates in some counties, but the %'s should be pretty close to accurate):

No%

FL-20   53.87%
FL-19   53.55%
FL-18   47.59%
FL-22   47.58%
FL-10   46.57%
FL-11   45.42%
FL-17   44.80%
FL-13   40.17%
FL-9   40.16%
FL-23   39.90%
FL-24   39.62%
FL-8   38.50%
FL-21   37.24%
FL-7   36.98%
FL-25   36.20%
FL-14   36.16%
FL-15   35.44%
FL-16   34.33%
FL-5   32.11%
FL-6   31.83%
FL-3   31.78%
FL-2   31.12%
FL-4   30.95%
FL-12   30.76%
FL-1   24.82%

Didn't expect FL-18 to be that pro-gay.

Linear regression

Highest performance relative to Obama/McCain:
FL-18
FL-1
FL-4
FL-22

Lowest performance relative to Obama/McCain:

FL-17
FL-23
FL-3
(since the above three are all majority black, I'll list four more)
FL-11
FL-12
FL-19
FL-8

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Comments?

[Brittain33]

FL-18 includes South Beach. Lots of gays and the people who love them. Ros-Lehtinen gets this.

[Verily]

OH-15 really sticks out; a very marginal seat (that I think Bush won?) as one of the strongest No seats. Columbus generally was (unsurprisingly, I suppose) quite liberal on the issue.

FL-18 is not surprising. South Beach AND Key West.

[??????????]

By county. I did this map back in '08.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thanks for reminding me why I hate your state. Not even Broward?

[??????????]

Thanks for reminding me why I hate your state. Not even Broward?

Yes won 52-48%

[Smash255]

Thanks for reminding me why I hate your state. Not even Broward?

Broward was 52-48 in favor of the ban according to CNN's results page.   Palm Beach County was the same.  Keep in mind while Broward is liberal, it also has a lot of old people

[Dgov]

Thanks for reminding me why I hate your state. Not even Broward?

The Democrat's base in the area is Blacks and Old Jews, so it's not entirely ridiculous.  Also, the Republicans in the area are predominately Cubans.

[Brittain33]

Broward also has a big gay population in Fort Lauderdale and Wilton Manors, but it's such a big county that they can't shift the margins that much on an issue that polls so badly.

[nclib]

FL-18 is not surprising. South Beach AND Key West.

Though Obama only won the district with 51%. Why would FL-18 be almost as gay-friendly as it is pro-Obama? The Republicans are primarily Cuban (maybe Cubans are less anti-gay than white Republicans), but FL-21 and FL-25 don't show this.

[Verily]

FL-18 is not surprising. South Beach AND Key West.

Though Obama only won the district with 51%. Why would FL-18 be almost as gay-friendly as it is pro-Obama? The Republicans are primarily Cuban (maybe Cubans are less anti-gay than white Republicans), but FL-21 and FL-25 don't show this.

There's more cultural assimilation in FL-18, I think. The Keys generally are weird.

Also, biggest surprise on the county map, to me at least, is Leon County. Tallahassee does not strike me as a particularly social-liberal place, certainly not to the point of being more so than Tampa or Orlando or Daytona Beach.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FL-18 is not surprising. South Beach AND Key West.

Though Obama only won the district with 51%. Why would FL-18 be almost as gay-friendly as it is pro-Obama? The Republicans are primarily Cuban (maybe Cubans are less anti-gay than white Republicans), but FL-21 and FL-25 don't show this.

There's more cultural assimilation in FL-18, I think. The Keys generally are weird, and I think there are a significant number of social-liberal white Republicans in Monroe County.

Also, biggest surprise on the county map, to me at least, is Leon County. Tallahassee does not strike me as a particularly social-liberal place, certainly not to the point of being more so than Tampa or Orlando or Daytona Beach.

State employees tend to be more educated and thus socially liberal types. And Tallahassee isn't really known as a retirement community, less olds.

[Verily]

FL-18 is not surprising. South Beach AND Key West.

Though Obama only won the district with 51%. Why would FL-18 be almost as gay-friendly as it is pro-Obama? The Republicans are primarily Cuban (maybe Cubans are less anti-gay than white Republicans), but FL-21 and FL-25 don't show this.

There's more cultural assimilation in FL-18, I think. The Keys generally are weird, and I think there are a significant number of social-liberal white Republicans in Monroe County.

Also, biggest surprise on the county map, to me at least, is Leon County. Tallahassee does not strike me as a particularly social-liberal place, certainly not to the point of being more so than Tampa or Orlando or Daytona Beach.

State employees tend to be more educated and thus socially liberal types. And Tallahassee isn't really known as a retirement community, less olds.

Hmm... looking it up, Leon County is a lot whiter than I thought, which I guess means there are a lot of liberal state employees there to make up for the Dixiecrat vote surrounding the city. I assumed it was Democratic for the same reason as neighboring Jefferson and Gadsden Counties (lots of blacks).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tallahassee also has Florida State University.

[Bacon King]

Yeah, Tallahassee is very similar culturally to Athens-Clarke County, GA, but with a bunch of government employees too.