Can Blanche Lincoln win? Or is she roadkill?

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Just curious to see what everyone thinks.

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Yes, just for fun.

I want to know how dead everyone thinks she is.

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As of now, it's a safe bet to say she'll lose with between 35 and 43%.

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As of now, it's a safe bet to say she'll lose with between 35 and 43%.

43% is a lot more likely than 35% IMO....I don't think Democrats can go lower than 40 under any circumstances this year in a place like Arkansas.....but then again, Obama proved us wrong two years ago.....but that had "special" reasons

Arkansas still is a very backwards state...

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I find it interesting that Rasmussen did a monthly poll of AR around the 17th, except in September.

I think Lincoln's numbers have improved but they just don't want to admit it. 

I believe the Ispos poll indicates that Lincoln has risen from below 30 to just at 40.

The Talk Buisness poll was methodologically unsound. 

Of course, Arkansas is a very Democratic state, and being under 40 for any reason is a bad sign if you're a Democrat. 

Lincoln's 1998 opponent, John Boozman's brother, was a one-man gaffe machine.

The only way Lincoln can win is A. Boozman has a big gaffe and B. Dixiecrats come back to Lincoln. 

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Ask Bob Menendez.

Takes a lost cause to no one, eh?

I will be very happy to see the Senate rid of Menendez and Lincoln both, though I appreciated the free beer I got at the Menendez office.

I can see why a Green, synonomous with "super-liberal" would be happy to get rid of Lincoln, but Menendez?

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Ask Bob Menendez.

Takes a lost cause to no one, eh?

I will be very happy to see the Senate rid of Menendez and Lincoln both, though I appreciated the free beer I got at the Menendez office.

I can see why a Green, synonomous with "super-liberal" would be happy to get rid of Lincoln, but Menendez?

My generally liberal positions do not necessarily predispose me to support candidates who disagree with me on most things. For example, I am undecided between Boxer and the Green candidate and am a safe Meg Whitman voter.

Okay, then what's the problem with Lincoln and Menendez?

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Ask Bob Menendez.

Takes a lost cause to no one, eh?

I will be very happy to see the Senate rid of Menendez and Lincoln both, though I appreciated the free beer I got at the Menendez office.

I can see why a Green, synonomous with "super-liberal" would be happy to get rid of Lincoln, but Menendez?

My generally liberal positions do not necessarily predispose me to support candidates who disagree with me on most things. For example, I am undecided between Boxer and the Green candidate and am a safe Meg Whitman voter.

Okay, then what's the problem with Lincoln and Menendez?

Blanche Lincoln is a pro-corporate tool who wavered on the public option yet supported the mandate that didn't contain cost controls whatsoever. What has Blanche Lincoln down to help bring troops home from Afghanistan or Iraq? Oh, right, she voted to send them there! When has she taken a stand on the environment and pushed to move us to a cleaner and more sustainable economy? Never!

Menendez is a union thug and partisan hack who has done much to help his cronies but little to help New Jersey and Americans. He has been happy to go along with the same old failed Bush-Obama policies.

You have very unusual positions.

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Whitman? Your joking right?

That's what I was thinking.

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What is wrong with Meg Whitman, might I ask?

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Maybe because she's a mean heartless person, willing to do whatever it takes to win, who also had an illegal housekeeper!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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She is an egotist.

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Roadkill unless there is an "October Surprise."

This. Without an almost impossible miracle, she'd dead (badly).

She's now back to 40, still very pathetic for an Arkansas Demcorat, although maybe it isn't pathetic considering the South has turned against the Democrats...

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At bare minimum she will take Jefferson, Phillips, and Lee, most likley Desha, Crittenden, and Chicot, then probably Pulaski, Woodruff, Clark and Jackson.

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Poor Blanche. Timing is everything. Had her seat been up 2 years ago she might have won in a walk

If Landrieu did, Lincoln certainly would have. In fact, many thought she'd be untouchable in early 2009.

I agree with both of you.

I thought she was untouchable as well.

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You're probably about the only person who thinks she can win, and you only think that because you are a hack who completely ignores polling.

I think she can win!

I agree, Miles.

She has a steep hill to get up, but Blanche is risillient, and can win.

however, it would be much easier for her if this was 2008 or 2006.

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Poor Blanche. Timing is everything. Had her seat been up 2 years ago she might have won in a walk

If Landrieu did, Lincoln certainly would have. In fact, many thought she'd be untouchable in early 2009.

I agree with both of you.

I thought she was untouchable as well.

If Landrieu was up for election this year, she'd be just as dead as Lincoln.  Landreiu lucked out and got a Class II seat that was up in 2008. If Lincoln were up in 2008, she would have cruised to victory.
I wish Lincoln and Pryor could switch seats. Lincoln would have won in 2008 and Pryor could have made it through 2010.

Dynastic names are always helpful.

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Mark Pryor would have won this year.

David Pryor was very popular.

Lincoln probably would have gone unopposed in 2008!!!!!!

Probably. Maybe some rancher would have run, but it's doubtful.

It's amazing what can change in 2 years.

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She'll be lucky to break 35%

Blanche just 'broke' 39% in the last Ipsos poll.

She must have been really lucky!!

She was indeed.

She's already where Obama was in 2008 and tehre are still some undecideds to bring in, not to mention Boozman's numbers are consistently sliding, he's just now at 53%

He was up in the 60's a couple of moths ago.

The momentum is clearly wit Lincoln, but it remains to be seen whether a last-minute push will be good enough.

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You're probably about the only person who thinks she can win, and you only think that because you are a hack who completely ignores polling.

I think she can win!

Yes, your prediction map giving Blanche >90% of the vote would make that pretty clear.


Tmth, I agree with you, it's quite unfortunate that these hacks from the prediction map part of Atlas managed to find the forum.

First, thank you for the warm welcome, Libertas.

Second, Blacnhe Lincoln's birthday was September 30th, so we decided to wish her a happy birthday.

We do the same for other politicians.

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Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

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Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

Yep. TalkBusiness is about as reliable as Rasmussen.

The Talk Business poll was done over the course of one day, with NO callbacks.

This alone is enough to discredit it.

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Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

Rasmussen is not "methodologically unsound," but in any case, take a look at the numbers. Lincoln is down big, has never once led, and the only way she could recover is if Boozman had a major scandal. And even then, I'd find it unlikely that she would win. If you don't like Rasmussen or TalkBusiness, take a look at PPP and the others.

Oh, and I prefer NiK.

We've had other reliable pollsters soince PPP looked at the race, like Ispos and MD.

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Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

Rasmussen is not "methodologically unsound," but in any case, take a look at the numbers. Lincoln is down big, has never once led, and the only way she could recover is if Boozman had a major scandal. And even then, I'd find it unlikely that she would win. If you don't like Rasmussen or TalkBusiness, take a look at PPP and the others.

Oh, and I prefer NiK.

We've had other reliable pollsters soince PPP looked at the race, like Ispos and MD.

and they both have Lincoln trailing by double digits...

but the trend is clearly in her favor...

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Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

Rasmussen is not "methodologically unsound," but in any case, take a look at the numbers. Lincoln is down big, has never once led, and the only way she could recover is if Boozman had a major scandal. And even then, I'd find it unlikely that she would win. If you don't like Rasmussen or TalkBusiness, take a look at PPP and the others.

Oh, and I prefer NiK.

We've had other reliable pollsters soince PPP looked at the race, like Ispos and MD.

and they both have Lincoln trailing by double digits...

but the trend is clearly in her favor...

Well, I take most polls into account, unlike you, and even if they were incorrect, there is no trend in her favor, since one poll does not a trend make. The last Mason Dixon had the same numbers, and the last TalkBusiness actually increased. Even so, with the national environment being the way it is, Lincoln's chances of returning to the Senate are incredibly slim.

But more importantly, why would you even want Lincoln to return to the Senate?

Because she basically shares my same positions, with few exceptions.

And she's a very nice person and her heart is in the right place.

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Her derivatives bill was the best I've ever seen.