2012: America's Future Decided - The Romney Administration

[feeblepizza]

The Ames, Iowa straw poll should be coming up soon:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_straw_poll

Which of the candidates will be participating?

I knew that, but thanks for reminding me All of the candidates will be there except for Rossi, Johnson, and Bolton. Thanks for reading and commenting!

[feeblepizza]

August 1, 2011: Senator Jim DeMint and Governor Nikki Haley, two popular South Carolina Republicans, endorse Mitt Romney for President. This is seen as a surprise by most media pundits, who expected the two to endorse Newt Gingrich, the Southern favorite.

August 3, 2011: Mitt Romney appears with Governor Haley at a Columbia, South Carolina rally (Senator DeMint was in another part of the state). In it, Governor Haley stresses Romney's conservative credentials as his time as Governor and as the leader of his PAC.

August 4, 2011: Mitt Romney now begins his first campaigning in South Carolina.

August 5, 2011: At the fifth primary debate in Des Moines, Iowa, Mitt Romney dominates, showing off his job as Governor of Massachusetts and his leadership in the conservative movement, namely at his Free, Strong America PAC.

August 11, 2011: With two days until the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll, the candidates are wildly active: all of them (even Bolton, Johnson, and Rossi) are campaigning in the state to rack up as many votes as possible.

August 13, 2011: The results are in....

Romney 23.5%
Gingrich 18.6%
Pence 15.3%
Cain 15.1%
Pawlenty 14.7%
Barbour 6.3%
Pataki 5.4%
Santorum 1%
Write-ins 0.8%

Analysis Romney's win wasn't surprising, but Pawlenty's terrible performance was. Pence and Cain performed very well. Overall, there were no surprises.

August 14, 2011: Romney holds a victory rally in Sioux City: "Conservatism has been put through the test, and it triumphed! Let's let it triumph again in January of 2012!"

Republican Polling, August 2011
Romney 25%
Gingrich 17%
Pence 13%
Cain 12%
Pawlenty 10%
Pataki 5%
Barbour 5%
Santorum 4%
Rossi 3%
Bolton 2%
Johnson 2%

Democratic Polling, August 2011
Obama 54%
Lieberman 37%

[Yelnoc]

Lieberman is polling at 37%?  What has Obama done?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Romney!!

[feeblepizza]

Lieberman is polling at 37%?  What has Obama done?

10% unemployment rate? Not so good for Obama.

[Yelnoc]

Lieberman is polling at 37%?  What has Obama done?

10% unemployment rate? Not so good for Obama.

Still, that's about what RFK was polling when he challenged Carter.  Lieberman is no RFK and Obama is no Carter.

[feeblepizza]

Lieberman is polling at 37%?  What has Obama done?

10% unemployment rate? Not so good for Obama.

Still, that's about what RFK was polling when he challenged Carter.  Lieberman is no RFK and Obama is no Carter.

I think you mean Ted Kennedy, because RFK ran against Johnson, not Carter. And Teddy was leading Carter 49-39. I don't have polling from the '68 Democratic primaries, but I'm pretty sure Bobby led LBJ (and all the others) by a pretty hefty margin.

[Yelnoc]

Lieberman is polling at 37%?  What has Obama done?

10% unemployment rate? Not so good for Obama.

Still, that's about what RFK was polling when he challenged Carter.  Lieberman is no RFK and Obama is no Carter.

I think you mean Ted Kennedy, because RFK ran against Johnson, not Carter. And Teddy was leading Carter 49-39. I don't have polling from the '68 Democratic primaries, but I'm pretty sure Bobby led LBJ (and all the others) by a pretty hefty margin.

Whoops, name mix up.

My point is that Lieberman is far from the powerful, popular figure to mount an insurgent campaign that is at least moderately succesful, especially when Obama's "fault" is completely out of his control (unemployment numbers).  But I don't want to detract from this timeline, please continue.

[feeblepizza]

Lieberman is polling at 37%?  What has Obama done?

10% unemployment rate? Not so good for Obama.

Still, that's about what RFK was polling when he challenged Carter.  Lieberman is no RFK and Obama is no Carter.

I think you mean Ted Kennedy, because RFK ran against Johnson, not Carter. And Teddy was leading Carter 49-39. I don't have polling from the '68 Democratic primaries, but I'm pretty sure Bobby led LBJ (and all the others) by a pretty hefty margin.

Whoops, name mix up.

My point is that Lieberman is far from the powerful, popular figure to mount an insurgent campaign that is at least moderately succesful, especially when Obama's "fault" is completely out of his control (unemployment numbers).  But I don't want to detract from this timeline, please continue.

Hey, no one said OTHER CANDIDATES couldn't be waiting to start a late campaign, did they? Just keep on reading

[feeblepizza]

September 1, 2011: Retired Senator Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) announces that he will be challenging President Obama and Senator Lieberman for the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States: "My party is being overtaken by radicals. My nation is being destroyed by debts and deficits. We need to get our priorities in order, and I don't think President Obama can do that."

Democratic Polling After Bayh's Announcement
Obama 44%
Bayh 33%
Lieberman 20%

The race for the Democratic nomination is now heated as ever, with two candidates lining up to defeat an incumbent President. President Obama says in an interview that he feels confident, although his approval rating is 38%, and polling well under 50%.

September 5, 2011: At an Ames, Iowa speech, Evan Bayh challenges President Obama to a debate: "I think that Democratic voters should know their candidates better. The Republicans are doing it. Why not us?"

September 6, 2011: Senator Joe Lieberman announces that he, too, would enjoy debating President Obama: "Mr. Bayh is right - Democrats need to know who they're dealing with. It would only be fair if we could agree to a debate sometime in the near future."

September 9, 2011: Republicans meet in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, to debate for a sixth time. Herman Cain is seen as the winner. Most Republicans point to the dysfunction in the Democratic Party, as two other candidates are challenging a sitting incumbent during the primaries.

September 11, 2011: All campaigning stops in order to honor the victims of 9/11. It is the tenth anniversary of the terrible event. Instead, all fourteen candidates, from both parties, meet at Ground Zero to give their remarks. President Obama calls for national unity during stressful times, whether our threats be military or economic.

September 15, 2011: After more than a week of negotiations, the Bayh, Lieberman, and Obama campaigns agree to stage a debate on October 3, 2011, in Davenport, Iowa. CNN will be the host network.

September 20, 2011: Former President Bill Clinton passes away of pancreatic cancer at the age of 65. Subsequently, State Secretary Hillary Clinton resigns.

William Jefferson Clinton (August 19, 1946-September 20, 2011)

September 23-24, 2011: President Clinton's funeral is held. President Obama calls him "an American treasure." Others that spoke included Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, George W. Bush, and Jimmy Carter.

September 27, 2011: As October, and 2012, nears, all presidential candidates are ramping up activity. Democrats are in a disarray, and Mitt Romney's lead seems to be slipping. At this point, anything could happen to decide America's future.

Republican Polling, September 2011
Romney 24%
Gingrich 19%
Pence 13%
Cain 13%
Pawlenty 12%
Barbour 6%
Pataki 5%
Santorum 4%
Rossi 3%
Johnson 3%
Bolton 2%

Democratic Polling, September 2011
Obama 43%
Bayh 35%
Lieberman 19%

[Progressive]

Your Democratic polling numbers don't add up i think

[feeblepizza]

Your Democratic polling numbers don't add up i think

My God! You're right! Fixed 'em.

[feeblepizza]

October 1, 2011: President Obama announces that, after careful review, his next choice for U.S. State Secretary will be Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.). "Senator Kerry has been a wonderful voice for the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, and I believe that he will make for a wonderful State Secretary. Mrs. Clinton has told me privately that she is pleased with my decision."

Senator Kerry states that he is indeed honored to be President Obama's nominee.

October 3, 2011: The media is now pushing the John Kerry appointment to the sidelines and focusing on the Democratic presidential debate in Davenport, Iowa. All three candidates - President Obama, Senator Lieberman, and former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh - are competing for votes, and potentially, the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

The first question was on the economy. President Obama defended his policies, claiming that things always get worse before they get better. Lieberman and Bayh attacked him viciously for the fact that unemployment was above 10%, and hadn't gone for six years.

Other questions included healthcare. President Obama defended the March 2010 healthcare legislation, while Bayh and Lieberman attacked it. They claimed that it was too costly and was detrimental towards both economic growth and the freedom of American citizens (not to mention they're health).

Overall, most agreed that Bayh performed best during the debate. 54% felt that he was the winner, while 36% felt that Obama won. Only 9% saw Lieberman as the winner.

October 9, 2011: The seventh Republican debate (also held in Davenport) was a win for Herman Cain, who played on the unity of the conservative movement and the newly dysfunctional state of the Democratic Party.

October 10, 2011: Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-New Mex.) announces his endorsement of Evan Bayh for President of the United States: "Senator Bayh represents change. President Obama promised change, but honestly, I don't see any, in terms of economic growth or our position in the world."

The Bayh campaign says that it is "honored" to receive the Senator's endorsement.

October 13, 2011: The Senate votes to confirm John Kerry as U.S. Secretary of State. Senator Kerry resigns immediately.

October 14, 2011: Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick signs an order for a special election to the United States Senate to be held on March 13, 2012.

Later that day, John Kerry is sworn in as the new State Secretary.

October 22, 2011: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani announces that he will be endorsing George Pataki for President of the United States at a joint rally in New York City.

October 24, 2011: Republican polls show Pataki gaining slightly...

Republican Polling, October 2011
Romney 22%
Gingrich 18%
Pence 13%
Cain 12%
Pawlenty 12%
Pataki 7%
Barbour 5%
Santorum 4%
Rossi 3%
Johnson 3%
Bolton 1%

Democratic polls show Bayh gaining, but by a lot more. The moderate Democrat is now down by only 5 points. Lieberman is taking a massive hit.

Democratic Polling, October 2011
Obama 41%
Bayh 36%
Lieberman 16%

[feeblepizza]

Thanks for reading, guys! Please review!

November 1, 2011: Governors Haley Barbour (R-Miss.), Bobby Jindal (R-La.), and Steve Beashear (D-Ky.) are all reelected. In other election related news, former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel will be the new Mayor of Chicago.

November 2, 2011: Governor Jindal endorses Mitt Romney for President.

November 3, 2011: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack resigns due to "personal reasons."

November 8, 2011: President Obama nominates Minnesota Senator Amy Klabouhcar to replace Vilsack.

November 11, 2011: At the seventh Republican debate, held in Grenville, South Carolina, Cain strikes a nerve by pointing to the resignation of Tom Vilsack as the first domino in a series of Obama Cabinet resignations in 2011 and 2012 - "Obama's Administration is collapsing." Most see him as the winner of the debate.

November 14, 2011: After an Iowa rally with Tim Pawlenty, Senator John McCain begins to complain of headaches before collapsing in the aisle of the Pawlenty tour bus. At the Cedar Falls General Hospital, doctors reveal that he suffered a stroke, and has been paralyzed from the neck down. They put his chances of living at 20%.

November 15, 2011: General David Petreaus makes a surprise presidential endorsement: John Bolton.

General Petreaus says that John Bolton is America's "best bet" on foreign policy and defense related issues.

In other news, Amy Klabouchar has been confirmed as the new Agriculture Secretary. She resigns in order to be sworn in later.

November 17, 2011: Secretary Klabouchar is sworn in.

November 24, 2011: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner resigns from office, stating that he feels America's economy is being "mishandled."

This leads FOX News host Glenn Beck to make an announcement: "Ladies and gentlemen, we've been going down a bad road for a long while. Even our 'leaders' can see that. Take Tim Geithner for example - he resigned earlier today because he felt America's economy was being 'mishandled.' Tom Vilsack resigned earlier this month due to 'personal reasons.' Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain has a domino theory about this. He says that one Cabinet member will come after another, and eventually the entire Administration will collapse in on itself. I agree with that. That's why I am endorsing Herman Cain for President of the United States."

November 27, 2011: Candidates are still heavily invested in their campaigns: Mitt Romney is trying desperately to hold onto his lead in Iowa, because Gingrich is chipping away at it quite successfully. Herman Cain and Mike Pence are flying between Iowa and South Carolina, hoping to use the Romney/Gingrich fight to their advantage. Haley Barbour is now limiting himself to South Carolina, just as George Pataki is in New Hampshire. Rick Santorum is campaigning furiously in South Carolina. John Bolton, Dino Rossi, and Gary Johnson have shown their best efforts in all four early primary states, visiting each one several times a week.

President Obama and Senator Lieberman are campaigning in all four primary states, while Evan Bayh is focusing mainly on Iowa, having an apparent state-by-state approach.

Republican Polling, November 2011
Romney 20%
Gingrich 19%
Pence 13%
Cain 13%
Pawlenty 13%
Pataki 7%
Barbour 5%
Bolton 5%
Rossi 3%
Johnson 2%

Democratic Polling, November 2011
Obama 42%
Bayh 39%
Lieberman 16%

[Yelnoc]

Bolton is a quack, Petraeus would never enorse him.  Honestly I can't see Petraeus straying into politics at all until his committment to the armed forces is complete.

[feeblepizza]

December 1, 2011: Minnesota Governor Mike Dayton appoints Walter Mondale (State Attorney General, U.S. Senator, Vice-President of the United States, and U.S. Ambassador to Japan) to Amy Klabouchar's Senate seat, playing on his varied and successful political career. The hearty 83 year old says that he will happily take the seat.

December 3, 2011: President Obama announces that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, a Republican, will be his new choice for Treasury Secretary.

December 5, 2011: During the eighth Republican debate, held in Dover, New Hampshire, Herman Cain once again moves back to his domino theory, warning of more and more resignations coming from the Obama Administration. Most say that he won the debate.

December 13, 2011: Ben Bernanke is confirmed with support from Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, and Susan Collins. He resigns his position as Federal Reserve Chairman later that day, opening up yet another position for President Obama to fill.

December 14, 2011: As Ben Bernanke is sworn in as Treasury Secretary, President Obama announces that James E. Rohr, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, will replace Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

December 15, 2011: Former U.S. President George H.W. Bush and his son, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush defy former President George W. Bush by releasing a joint endorsement of Mitt Romney for President of the United States.

December 17, 2011: Dino Rossi announces a 50-state tour, during which he hopes to revive his terrifyingly low poll numbers. His goal is to finish up before February of 2012 (i.e. Super Tuesday).

December 18, 2011: Evan Bayh receives endorsements from Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wa), who both endorsed Obama in 2008.

December 23, 2011: President Obama receives endorsements from Hillary Clinton and Congresswoman (formerly House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi. The endorsements are seen as a reaction to the Sanders and Cantwell endorsements.

December 25, 2011: On Christmas Day, new polls show a welcome present for Newt Gingrich and Evan Bayh:

Republican Polling, December 2011
Gingrich 19%
Romney 19%
Pence 14%
Cain 13%
Pawlenty 13%
Pataki 7%
Barbour 6%
Bolton 5%
Santorum 4%
Rossi 3%
Johnson 2%

Democratic Polling, December 2011
Obama 41%
Bayh 40%
Lieberman 16%

Please comment

[feeblepizza]

Bolton is a quack, Petraeus would never enorse him.  Honestly I can't see Petraeus straying into politics at all until his committment to the armed forces is complete.

Bolton is actually quite credible. And ITTL, Iraq is over and Afghanistan is winding down pretty quickly.

[feeblepizza]

January 1, 2012: Senator John McCain passes away at the age of 75. The Arizona Republican Party puts out a statement of condolence to the McCain family, and states that they will submit a list of candidates to Governor Brewer in one week.

John Sidney McCain III (August 22, 1936-January 1, 2012)

January 3, 2012: The Iowa Caucus results are in from both parties.....

Republican Caucus

Gingrich 19.3%
Romney 18.6%
Pence 14.7%
Cain 13.2%
Pawlenty 12.1%
Pataki 6.9%
Bolton 5.4%
Barbour 2.9%
Santorum 2.7%
Rossi 2.9%
Johnson 2.1%

Analysis - Romney had a short lead in the polls, but his downfall was obvious in the polls from coming months. Overall, there were no surprises among the results.

Republican Delegate Count - Gingrich (9), Romney ( 8 ), Pence (3), Cain (3), Pawlenty (2), Pataki (1), Bolton (1), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Democratic Caucus

Bayh 44.6%
Obama 43.8%
Lieberman 10.1%
Other 1.5%

Analysis - Bayh's victory was not a surprise to most, as he had crept up on Obama all throughout the election. Lieberman's poor showing was unsurprising as well.

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (21), Obama (19), Lieberman (5)

January 8, 2012: Candidates to replace Senator McCain are Governor Jan Brewer, former Congressman J.D. Hayward, and former Vice-President Dan Quayle.

January 10, 2012: With the leaders in delegate count being Gingrich and Bayh, the race is heating up. New Hampshire, the "comeback state" in politics, is a glimmer of hope for the campaigns of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. They're supporters fingers are crossed as the results come in....

Republican Primary

Romney 26.3%
Pataki 18.8%
Gingrich 11.1%
Rossi 9.2%
Pawlenty 7.9%
Pence 5.8%
Cain 5.2%
Johnson 5.1%
Bolton 4.5%
Santorum 4.4%
Barbour 1%
Other 0.7%

Analysis - Romney's comeback was a major step to success for his campaign, which had been failing for the past months. Gingrich's low numbers were expected.

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (15), Gingrich (10), Pence (3), Cain (3), Pawlenty (2), Pataki (2), Bolton (1), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Democratic Primary

Obama 54.9%
Bayh 30.6%
Lieberman 22.3%
Other 2%

Analysis - President Obama's 24% victory was seen coming from a long way. Bayh and Lieberman came within 8% of each other.

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (34), Bayh (24), Lieberman ( 8 )

January 11, 2011: Republican candidate Gary Johnson announces that he is dropping his presidential campaign. He does not make an endorsement.


Please review!

[Yelnoc]

Overall a very nice update.  Why, though, did Leiberman do so strongly in New Hampshire?

[feeblepizza]

Overall a very nice update.  Why, though, did Leiberman do so strongly in New Hampshire?

He's New England's favorite son candidate.

[feeblepizza]

January 13, 2012: Governor Jan Brewer chooses herself as Arizona's next Senator. She resigns the day of the appointment, and State Attorney General Tom Horne (R) takes her place.

January 15, 2012: Jan Brewer now officially becomes a United States Senator.

January 17, 2012: Michigan Democrats vote today, and this time they have 130 delegates set firmly in place. The winner will be:

Bayh 44.2%
Obama 43.8%
Lieberman 11.9%

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (104), Obama (94), Lieberman ( 8 )

January 20, 2012: The Romney campaign is gaining momentum on the Republican side, while the Obama campaign is losing steam drastically. Nevada is the next race.

Republican Caucus

Romney 33.7%
Gingrich 19.1%
Pataki 4.1%
Pawlenty 3.8%
Pence 3.8%
Cain 2.3%
Rossi 1%
Santorum 0.3%
Barbour 0.2%
Bolton 0.1%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (37), Gingrich (18), Pence (3), Cain (3), Pataki (3), Pawlenty (2), Bolton (1), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Democratic Caucus

Bayh 49.8%
Obama 35.6%
Lieberman 13.9%

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (122), Obama (101), Lieberman ( 8 )

January 21, 2012: Herman Cain drops his campaign and endorses Mike Pence for President. He also gives all of his delegates to Pence, bumping his total to 6 (third place).

January 23, 2012: Senator Mark Warner (D-Va.) endorses Evan Bayh for President during a South Carolina rally: "I think that Evan stands for real change. The change that President Obama claimed to represent, but has never delivered."

Analysis (Michigan and Nevada) - The Democratic primary in Michigan was a huge boost for Bayh, who won mainly by campaigning on the economy. He campaigned on the economy in Nevada, also, therefore being able to appeal to the state's unemployed voters.

Mitt Romney used religious voters to his advantage in the Republican Caucus. He also attempted to use the economy, but without much ground.

Next Up - South Carolina. Thank you for your comments

[California8429]

woot! Go Gingrich!!!!

Love the TL, and the fact that Pataki is a semi-player. And that there's a democratic primary. Overall...great!

A little surprised Jindal didn't endorse Gingrich considering his dad is closeish with him...

[feeblepizza]

woot! Go Gingrich!!!!

Love the TL, and the fact that Pataki is a semi-player. And that there's a democratic primary. Overall...great!

A little surprised Jindal didn't endorse Gingrich considering his dad is closeish with him...

Jindal isn't his dad, is he?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Romney!!

[feeblepizza]

January 24, 2012: For the past months, candidates have been assaulting the Palmetto State with their messages, whether they have nonstop 24 hour ad campaigns (Gingrich) or have been sending special campaigners every day (Romney and Pence). Whatever the case, South Carolina will be interesting for the Republicans, to say the least....

Republican Primary

Gingrich 44.4%
Romney 15.2%
Pence 15.1%
Barbour 6.9%
Pawlenty 6.8%
Bolton 4.9%
Santorum 3.7%
Rossi 1.8%
Pataki 1.2%

Analysis - Gingrich's victory was predicted all through the campaign season. Romney's sad second place was surprising, however, due to his support from Haley and DeMint.

Republican Delegate Count - Gingrich (47), Romney (30), Pence (6), Pataki (3), Pawlenty (2), Bolton (1), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Democratic Primary

Obama 56.6%
Bayh 36.9%
Lieberman 7.2%

Analysis - Obama's victory was facilitated by the African-American vote. It had been predicted by most polls, though it was usually closer. His win was good, but not good enough to give him a lead.

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (134), Obama (113), Lieberman ( 8 )

January 25, 2012: Congressman Mike Pence announces that he will no longer be a presidential candidate. He endorses Newt Gingrich for President.

January 26, 2012: Rick Santorum also drops his presidential candidate in favor of Gingrich.

January 27, 2012: Governor Haley Barbour drops his presidential bid and endorses Newt Gingrich.

January 31, 2012: The Republican will have to wait until Super Tuesday to decide their fate, but the Democrats have Florida to look forward to. The winner is:

Bayh 51.1%
Obama 24.3%
Lieberman 23.9%

Analysis - Bayh won by campaigning on ObamaCare, which was stiffly opposed even by most Florida Democrats. Lieberman performed in his best showing yet, raking in almost 24% of the vote and coming very close to second place.

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (297), Obama (123), Lieberman (17)


Next up - SUPER TUESDAY!!!!

Will it be Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney? Barack Obama or Evan Bayh? We'll in the next post.

Thanks for reading! Please comment!