2012: America's Future Decided - The Romney Administration

[CathKhan]

How is Bayh winning?

[feeblepizza]

How is Bayh winning?

Bayh is winning because he's campaigning on the terrible state of the economy and on ObamaCare, which is unpopular among even Democrats. But don't make assumptions just yet

[feeblepizza]

February 6, 2012: One day away from Super Tuesday, and the Republican front-runners, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, are both fighting for their political futures. President Obama is losing steam in his fight to be renominated. Whoever scores the biggest, the race will be interesting...

Super Tuesday - Democratic Map


Red = Obama, Blue = Bayh

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (1049), Obama (1029), Lieberman (35)

Analysis - Bayh still has the upper hand, as it looks as if his attacks against ObamaCare and on the 10% unemployment rate are doing him some good.


Super Tuesday - Republican Map


Republican Delegate Count - Romney (306), Gingrich (152), Pawlenty (22), Pataki (11), Bolton (7), Rossi 0, Pence 6, Santorum 0, Barbour 0, Johnson 0

Analysis - Romney has retaken his early lead with and asserted himself, once again, as the front-runner, having won all U.S. territories and all but five states so far.

February 8, 2012: Senator Joe Lieberman announces that he is withdrawing his presidential bid and endorsing Evan Bayh.

George Pataki also drops his presidential bid to endorse Mitt Romney: "Mitt is clearly the front-runner, and will clearly make a great Commander-in-Chief."

February 9, 2012: Tim Pawlenty announces that he will stay in the race, as he has made significant progress compared to earlier races. John Bolton also says that he will stay. Dino Rossi, however, terminates his campaign.

[A-Bob]

One would think with all those endorsements after South Carolina, Gingrich would preform better

[feeblepizza]

February 14, 2012: The Republicans have no more contests until Maryland and Kentucky vote on March 6, but the Democrats (the resilient Bayh and the wounded Obama) have five more post-Tuesday contests today. The Obama campaigns hopes are set in Louisiana, Washington, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where they hope to make comebacks.

Louisiana

Obama 57.5%
Bayh 36.1%

Maine

Obama 59.1%
Bayh 40.6%

Washington

Obama 49.6%
Bayh 49.4%

Nebraska

Bayh 68.3%
Obama 32.5%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1139), Bayh (1135), Lieberman (35)

Now President Obama is leading in delegates for the first time since the New Hampshire primary in January - even if his lead is by 4 delegates.

February 17, 2012: Senator Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) files papers to run for reelection in Connecticut's Republican Senate primary. He also changes his caucus affiliation to Republican, giving the GOP a new 52-47 majority (John Kerry's seat has remained vacant since his resignation to become SOS). He says, however, that he will remain loyal to the Bayh campaign.

February 21, 2012: In the "Potomac Primary" Evan Bayh hopes to replenish his delegate count by winning Virginia. President Obama remains confident that he can sweep the primaries. The results....

District of Columbia

Obama 91.3%
Bayh 9.6%

Maryland

Obama 61%
Bayh 39.9%

Virginia

Bayh 50.1%
Obama 49.4%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1237), Bayh (1204), Lieberman (35)

Obama maintains the lead, although Bayh does manage to win Virginia by razor thin margins. At this point, most believe that the nomination is Bayh's to lose (Obama will climb up the delegate ladder slowly but surely). But - who knows?

February 24, 2012: With four days to go until the next set of primaries, Evan Bayh assaults the state of Wisconsin with anti-Obama ads, focusing on Bayh's two issues: the economy and healthcare. Most say that Obama "lied about changing things" and was a "false prophet." When polled, 39% say that the ads changed their vote. When further polled, 50% say that they will vote for Bayh, as opposed to 47% who will vote for Obama.

February 28, 2012: The next contests (in Hawaii and Wisconsin)...

Hawaii

Obama 93.9%
Bayh 6.1%

Wisconsin

Bayh 52.9%
Obama 47.3%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1291), Bayh (1244), Lieberman (35)

[Yelnoc]

With this kind of long drawn out primary, whoever wins the Democratic primary will lose the general election.  Unless, of course, you let Gingrich win the Republican nomination and then uncover a new scandal about him.

[Odysseus]

Yeah, this is pretty well written, I like it.

My realistic 2012 timeline!

Erm, what?

[A-Bob]

With this kind of long drawn out primary, whoever wins the Democratic primary will lose the general election.  Unless, of course, you let Gingrich win the Republican nomination and then uncover a new scandal about him.

What wouldn't have been uncovered? He had been in the public's view for such a long time, anything and everything that happened, came out

[GPORTER]

Look, Obama needs to be the democratic nominee. Don't most other readers of this timeline agree with me on that?

[MorningInAmerica]

Look, Obama needs to be the democratic nominee. Don't most other readers of this timeline agree with me on that?

I agree.

I agree that it's not very realistic. I just don't see how Bayh and Lieberman could be getting the combined percentages between them that you gave them. I mean, 50% of the Democratic Primary electorate are not centrist, fiscal hawks. Obama is probably going to be in some trouble in 2012, but i really don't see TWO centrist/moderates competing against him and being successful. Unemployment would have to be about 15-18%, and Obama would likely just not run for reelection at that point. MAYBE if one centrist challenged Obama, they MIGHT be successful. But President Obama only getting 24% in Florida in a Democratic primary?! That's a big leap from where we're at right now, IMO.

[feeblepizza]

Look, Obama needs to be the democratic nominee. Don't most other readers of this timeline agree with me on that?

I agree.

I agree that it's not very realistic. I just don't see how Bayh and Lieberman could be getting the combined percentages between them that you gave them. I mean, 50% of the Democratic Primary electorate are not centrist, fiscal hawks. Obama is probably going to be in some trouble in 2012, but i really don't see TWO centrist/moderates competing against him and being successful. Unemployment would have to be about 15-18%, and Obama would likely just not run for reelection at that point. MAYBE if one centrist challenged Obama, they MIGHT be successful. But President Obama only getting 24% in Florida in a Democratic primary?! That's a big leap from where we're at right now, IMO.

ITTL, unemployment inches closer and closer to 11%. Most Democrats are voting for Bayh and Lieberman as a protest vote due to being disenchanted by the corrupt failure that is the Obama Administration.

[Odysseus]

Look, Obama needs to be the democratic nominee. Don't most other readers of this timeline agree with me on that?

I agree.

I agree that it's not very realistic. I just don't see how Bayh and Lieberman could be getting the combined percentages between them that you gave them. I mean, 50% of the Democratic Primary electorate are not centrist, fiscal hawks. Obama is probably going to be in some trouble in 2012, but i really don't see TWO centrist/moderates competing against him and being successful. Unemployment would have to be about 15-18%, and Obama would likely just not run for reelection at that point. MAYBE if one centrist challenged Obama, they MIGHT be successful. But President Obama only getting 24% in Florida in a Democratic primary?! That's a big leap from where we're at right now, IMO.

ITTL, unemployment inches closer and closer to 11%. Most Democrats are voting for Bayh and Lieberman as a protest vote due to being disenchanted by the corrupt failure that is the Obama Administration.

Yes, but still, most Democrats are probably not going to see the Obama Administration as a "corrupt failure", or be motivated enough to vote for a 70 year old man or a Democrat In Name Only. You have to accept the fact that Democrats are liberals and there is a small minority among them that are fiscally conservative, not the other way around.

[feeblepizza]

Look, Obama needs to be the democratic nominee. Don't most other readers of this timeline agree with me on that?

I agree.

I agree that it's not very realistic. I just don't see how Bayh and Lieberman could be getting the combined percentages between them that you gave them. I mean, 50% of the Democratic Primary electorate are not centrist, fiscal hawks. Obama is probably going to be in some trouble in 2012, but i really don't see TWO centrist/moderates competing against him and being successful. Unemployment would have to be about 15-18%, and Obama would likely just not run for reelection at that point. MAYBE if one centrist challenged Obama, they MIGHT be successful. But President Obama only getting 24% in Florida in a Democratic primary?! That's a big leap from where we're at right now, IMO.

ITTL, unemployment inches closer and closer to 11%. Most Democrats are voting for Bayh and Lieberman as a protest vote due to being disenchanted by the corrupt failure that is the Obama Administration.

Yes, but still, most Democrats are probably not going to see the Obama Administration as a "corrupt failure", or be motivated enough to vote for a 70 year old man or a Democrat In Name Only. You have to accept the fact that Democrats are liberals and there is a small minority among them that are fiscally conservative, not the other way around.

Look at the bold text

[DS0816]

2010 SENATE RESULTS
Alabama...Richard Shelby (R) has been reelected with 66% of the vote

Alaska...........Lisa Murkowski (R) has been reelected with 41% of the vote

Arizona.........John McCain (R) has been reelected with 65% of the vote

Arkansas.......John Boozman (R) has defeated Blanche Lincoln (D) in her reelection bid with 67% of the vote

California.......Barbara Boxer (D) has been reelected with 52% of the vote

Colorado........Ken Beck (R) has defeated Michael Bennett (D) in his reelection bid with 51% of the vote

Connecticut....Richard Blumenthal (D) has taken an open seat with 50% of the vote

Delaware........Chris Coons (D) has taken an open seat with 47% of the vote

Florida.............Marco Rubio (R) has taken an open seat with 49% of the vote

Georgia............Johnny Isakson (R) has been reelected with 68% of the vote

Hawaii..............Daniel Inouye (D) has been reelected with 76% of the vote

Idaho...............Mike Crapo (R) has been reelected with 70% of the vote

Illinois...............Mike Kirk (R) has taken an open seat with 53% of the vote

Indiana.............Dan Coats (R) has taken an open seat with 50% of the vote

Iowa..................Chuck Grassley (R) has been reelected with 61% of the vote

Kansas...............Jerry Moran (R) has taken an open seat with 66% of the vote

Kentucky.............Rand Paul (R) has taken an open seat with 55% of the vote

Louisiana.............David Vitter (R) has been reelected with 54% of the vote

Maryland..............Barbara Mikulski (D) has been reelected with 58% of the vote

More 2010 results next! Please make comments

No to Murkowski. It'll be Joe Miller. And add 10% for Dan Coats and Chris Coons.

[feeblepizza]

2010 SENATE RESULTS
Alabama...Richard Shelby (R) has been reelected with 66% of the vote

Alaska...........Lisa Murkowski (R) has been reelected with 41% of the vote

Arizona.........John McCain (R) has been reelected with 65% of the vote

Arkansas.......John Boozman (R) has defeated Blanche Lincoln (D) in her reelection bid with 67% of the vote

California.......Barbara Boxer (D) has been reelected with 52% of the vote

Colorado........Ken Beck (R) has defeated Michael Bennett (D) in his reelection bid with 51% of the vote

Connecticut....Richard Blumenthal (D) has taken an open seat with 50% of the vote

Delaware........Chris Coons (D) has taken an open seat with 47% of the vote

Florida.............Marco Rubio (R) has taken an open seat with 49% of the vote

Georgia............Johnny Isakson (R) has been reelected with 68% of the vote

Hawaii..............Daniel Inouye (D) has been reelected with 76% of the vote

Idaho...............Mike Crapo (R) has been reelected with 70% of the vote

Illinois...............Mike Kirk (R) has taken an open seat with 53% of the vote

Indiana.............Dan Coats (R) has taken an open seat with 50% of the vote

Iowa..................Chuck Grassley (R) has been reelected with 61% of the vote

Kansas...............Jerry Moran (R) has taken an open seat with 66% of the vote

Kentucky.............Rand Paul (R) has taken an open seat with 55% of the vote

Louisiana.............David Vitter (R) has been reelected with 54% of the vote

Maryland..............Barbara Mikulski (D) has been reelected with 58% of the vote

More 2010 results next! Please make comments

No to Murkowski. It'll be Joe Miller. And add 10% for Dan Coats and Chris Coons.

Yes, Murkowski will win. And Coats will JUST get by, while Delaware polls show that 22% will vote for third-party candidates.

[feeblepizza]

March 6, 2012: Today could be the defining moment in the Democratic primaries. Evan Bayh's future could be sealed, or President Obama could go down in history as a primaried President. Which future will come true? The results from Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Texas are coming in....

Ohio

Obama 53.9%
Bayh 45%

Vermont

Obama 89.7%
Bayh 9.8%

Rhode Island

Obama 88.2%
Bayh 11.3

Texas

Bayh 49.5%
Obama 49.4%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1529), Bayh (1408), Lieberman 35

On the Republican side, contests are taking place in Maryland and Kentucky:

Maryland

Gingrich 44.1%
Romney 38.2%
Pawlenty 10.5%
Bolton 6.9%

Kentucky

Gingrich 59.1%
Romney 20.4%
Pawlenty 11.9%
Bolton 8.5%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (317), Gingrich (223), Pawlenty (22), Bolton (7), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Rossi (0), Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson 0

It seems as if President Obama is on a track to being renominated, fairly easily now. Gingrich is now creeping up on Mitt Romney's lead.


Thanks for your comments and criticism! Keep reading and please reply more

[DS0816]

Yes, Murkowski will win. And Coats will JUST get by, while Delaware polls show that 22% will vote for third-party candidates.

Once more: No to Sen. Lisa Murkowski [R-Alaska]. Write-in vote won't put her over the top. Alaska has not yet elected a U.S. Senator outside the Republican-vs.-Democratic party duopoly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Alaska



Dan Coats is polling in the upper-50s%, and will landslide Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Indiana #08) to flip U.S. Senate seat from Indiana held by two-term Evan Bayh from Democratic to Republican column.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate/indiana


And Delaware is not going to stop at 78 percent of the combined vote, only, for the Republican-vs.-Democratic matchup of Christine O'Donnell and Chris Coons, who is likely to hold the Senate seat previously occupied by Vice President Joe Biden and warmed by Ted Kaufman.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate/delaware

[Jayhawker]

Romney would probably win Maryland. This is probably the first timeline I've seen for 2012 that has Gingrich winning. He's also the heavy favorite on President Forever, not that it means anything.

[feeblepizza]

Romney would probably win Maryland. This is probably the first timeline I've seen for 2012 that has Gingrich winning. He's also the heavy favorite on President Forever, not that it means anything.

After all, Gingrich won by only 6 points. It wasn't a landslide or anything. And Romney still got a good chunk of the delegates.

[feeblepizza]

Yes, Murkowski will win. And Coats will JUST get by, while Delaware polls show that 22% will vote for third-party candidates.

Once more: No to Sen. Lisa Murkowski [R-Alaska]. Write-in vote won't put her over the top. Alaska has not yet elected a U.S. Senator outside the Republican-vs.-Democratic party duopoly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Alaska



Dan Coats is polling in the upper-50s%, and will landslide Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Indiana #08) to flip U.S. Senate seat from Indiana held by two-term Evan Bayh from Democratic to Republican column.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate/indiana


And Delaware is not going to stop at 78 percent of the combined vote, only, for the Republican-vs.-Democratic matchup of Christine O'Donnell and Chris Coons, who is likely to hold the Senate seat previously occupied by Vice President Joe Biden and warmed by Ted Kaufman.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate/delaware

Just because Murkowski is running a write-in campaign doesn't mean that she will enter the Senate as an independent. She is by all means still a Republican.

And of what relevance are the New York Times articles?

[feeblepizza]

March 13, 2012: Today is the Special Election to fill U.S. State Secretary John Kerry's Senate seat. The Republican nominee is Charlie Baker (who defeated Kerry Healey and Bill Weld) and the Democratic nominee is none other than Governor Deval Patrick (who defeated Martha Coakely and Tim Cahill, both of whom were desperate for a political comeback). The election was marked a toss-up. Mitt Romney and Scott Brown campaigned on the side of Baker (although they had both endorsed Healey during the primary) and President Obama campaigned for Patrick. The moment of truth comes near.....

Baker 54.7%
Patrick 44.8%

Now, Massachusetts has two Republican Senators, something that has not happened since the 1960s.

Besides, the Senate election is the Mississippi Democratic primary and the Republican contests in Wisconsin and Alabama.

Mississippi

Obama 65.8%
Bayh 33.8%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1550), Bayh (1420), Lieberman (35)

On the Republican side, Wisconsin and Alabama are voting.

Wisconsin

Romney 49.6%
Gingrich 23.1%
Pawlenty 21.9%
Bolton 3.9%

Alabama

Gingrich 51.7%
Romney 20.1%
Bolton 16%
Pawlenty 11%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (368), Gingrich (251), Pawlenty (25), Bolton (16), Pataki (11), Pence 6, Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0), Rossi (0)

President Obama is now asserting himself as the leader, while Gingrich is 117 delegates behind Romney. Pawlenty has gained a measly three delegates from Wisconsin, and John Bolton has just achieved double digits.


Tomorrow - Republican races in Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri (March 20-27)

Keep reading/commenting

[CathKhan]

March 13, 2012: Today is the Special Election to fill U.S. State Secretary John Kerry's Senate seat. The Republican nominee is Charlie Baker (who defeated Kerry Healey and Bill Weld) and the Democratic nominee is none other than Governor Deval Patrick (who defeated Martha Coakely and Tim Cahill, both of whom were desperate for a political comeback). The election was marked a toss-up. Mitt Romney and Scott Brown campaigned on the side of Baker (although they had both endorsed Healey during the primary) and President Obama campaigned for Patrick. The moment of truth comes near.....

Baker 54.7%
Patrick 44.8%

I know Dallasfan65 and Wormyguy will be happy.

[A-Bob]

I would think Romney would get Maryland and Gingirch would win Wisconsin.

Also, how would it be possible for Bolton to 1) last this long and 2) pull off these numbers?

[feeblepizza]

I would think Romney would get Maryland and Gingirch would win Wisconsin.

Also, how would it be possible for Bolton to 1) last this long and 2) pull off these numbers?

He's stubborn, and his biggest win was in the hawkish Alabama.

[feeblepizza]

March 20, 2012: With Newt Gingrich's surprise 6-point victory in Maryland, the Romney campaign was put on the defensive. They began preparing for losses in the Southern states, which would make up all of the primaries until April 3, with Mississippi and Louisiana voting on the 20th and Arkansas and Missouri voting on the 27th.

Mississippi

Gingrich 52.3%
Romney 20.1%
Pawlenty 19.8%
Bolton 6.4%

Louisiana

Gingrich 44.5%
Romney 28.3%
Pawlenty 20.6%
Bolton 6.1%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (369), Gingrich (304), Pawlenty (26), Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0), Rossi (0)

March 27, 2012: The Romney campaign's delegate count has barely budged, and the newest primaries don't seem too kind, either........

Arkansas

Gingrich 62.7%
Romney 20.3%
Pawlenty 10.7%
Bolton 5.8%

Missouri

Gingrich 44.4%
Romney 31.8%
Pawlenty 13.8%
Bolton 9.9%

Republican Delegate Count - Gingrich (393), Romney (369), Pawlenty (26), Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0), Rossi (0)

New Gingrich has now taken the lead, just as the Romney campaign had feared. However, most say that his lead will be temporary until the Minnesota and Kansas contests on April 3.

March 29, 2012: During a CNN interview, Tim Pawlenty says that he will stay in the race until Minnesota votes. "I will only stay in the race if I can get at least half of Minnesota's delegates."

Most pundits agree that Pawlenty will be staying in the race for awhile, as he is coming in ahead of Gingrich for second place behind Romney in most polls.