How many House Democrats does Pelosi need to keep her position as Speaker?

[Skill and Chance]

Obviously if the GOP wins a majority, she is done, but could a very narrow Dem majority support her?  Could you see Gene Taylor or Bobby Bright or Mike Oliverio being #218 for her?

I think she needs a majority of at least 223-212 to be safe against a Blue Dog revolt.

[J. J.]

Obviously if the GOP wins a majority, she is done, but could a very narrow Dem majority support her?  Could you see Gene Taylor or Bobby Bright or Mike Oliverio being #218 for her?

I think she needs a majority of at least 223-212 to be safe against a Blue Dog revolt.

It will depend if she's seen as the cause of the loss.  I'd say 218-220.

[minionofmidas]

She'd step down voluntarily rather than risk actually losing a speaker election. Or so you'd assume.
OTOH, holding the House, even by a single seat, would be spinnable as a victory... in which case these guys probably wouldn't want to rebel.

[Ogre Mage]

I think Pelosi's status as leader is only endangered if the Democrats go into the minority.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think Pelosi's status as leader is only endangered if the Democrats go into the minority.

I think for the most part this is the case. There could be an arguement, depending on who wins and where, for replacing her but I don't think it would get far.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Total DINO Oliverio should be kicked out of the party anyways, so that it would be easier for some quasi-Democrat to defeat him.

[California8429]

Does each party of a Speaker "primary" first, or is it more everyone for themselves in an open race?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She'd step down voluntarily rather than risk actually losing a speaker election. Or so you'd assume.
OTOH, holding the House, even by a single seat, would be spinnable as a victory... in which case these guys probably wouldn't want to rebel.

Well, even Kevin Rudd stood aside when humiliation was inevitable and he's an Australian.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ah ha?

Anyway, I say if there's a majority, given the bloodbath that's been predicted, she'll probably hang on.

If it's narrow loss, she'll probably take soundings, and stand down

If it's a pretty big loss, she'll stand down regardless, her position would be untenable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah ha?

Australian politicians are far more likely to hold out until the bitter end than politicians from other places.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does each party of a Speaker "primary" first, or is it more everyone for themselves in an open race?

I think it's just like a convention race, a majority is needed, everyone runs, if no one gets a majority someone likely drops out and another vote is held until someone does.

[tpfkaw]

But is it a majority of the majority party, or a majority of the House of Reps?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm talking about election for the leader of the party. Who then becomes who they vote for Speaker. I think Speaker requires a majority of the House too so if one can't acheive it the majority party has to elect someone else as leader. There was some controversy in 1999 I believe because it looked like Gingrich might not have got the votes to be elected Speaker, about seven or so Republicans declined to vote for him but he still got the votes needed.