CT: PPP: Blumenthal crushing McMahon

[Eraserhead]

Likely voters:

Blumenthal 53%
McMahon 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CT_104424.pdf

[Meeker]

Hmmm... not sure I believe this one.

[DrScholl]

McMahon's favorable numbers are very poor, that's her biggest problem. I think Blumenthal wins this 56-44 or 54-46 at the least.

[tpfkaw]

I don't really see how Blumenthal has such high favorables.  I guess they're really impressed by his war hero status.

[Eraserhead]

Looking inside the poll, the party breakdown seems too Dem friendly to me fyi.

[Miles]

The polling breakdown was:

DEM: 44%
GOP: 28%
IND: 28%

That sounds about right for CT.

PPP said that to be competitive, McMahon would have to makin inroads with Democrats; this seems unlikely as only 13% of Democrats have a positive view of her.

If everything stays the same, Dick should will with at least 55% on election night.

[Miles]

The polling breakdown was:

DEM: 44%
GOP: 28%
IND: 28%

That sounds about right for CT.

PPP said that to be competitive, McMahon would have to mak major inroads with Democrats; this seems unlikely as only 13% of Democrats have a positive view of her.

If everything stays the same, Dick should will with at least 55% on election night.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Their last poll of CT back in January showed a 46-26-29 D-R-I compared to their current 41-28-31 voter breakdown so these numbers are an improvement for Republicans compared to their previous ones.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That makes sense. As stated, to win McMahon needs at least some inroads with Democrats. Now why would any Democrat like someone like her?

[cinyc]

The first debate is tonight at 7PM Eastern.  It will be moderated by Bret Baier from Fox News Channel.  It will be on the local Fox affiliate for Hartford/New Haven.  I don't know if Fox News Channel will carry it nationwide.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh that sounds unbiased. I'd prefer Blumenthal boycott any Fox-sponsored debates just like Obama did during the primaries.

[cinyc]

Oh that sounds unbiased. I'd prefer Blumenthal boycott any Fox-sponsored debates just like Obama did during the primaries.

The debate is sponsored by the Hartford Courant and the local Fox affiliate (both of which are owned by Tribune Corp).  Brett Baier will make a perfectly fine moderator.  Backing out of a debate sponsored by the state's largest and most influential newspaper because you don't like the moderator would seriously backfire.

And this isn't a primary, where Democrats can show their so-called "progressive" bona fides by hiding from the most popular cable news network in America.

Fox CT and the Hartford Courant will likely be live streaming the debate on their combined website:
http://www.ctnow.com/

[Holmes]

Ugh, Portman vs Fisher is on at the same time as Blumenthal vs McMahon... hmm... I think I'll go with Ohio since it might be the only time we see Fisher until election day.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't really see how Blumenthal has such high favorables.  I guess they're really impressed by his war hero status.

Maybe it's because they don't care about the Vietnam thing -- which came out months ago -- as much as you apparently think they do.

[cinyc]

I don't really see how Blumenthal has such high favorables.  I guess they're really impressed by his war hero status.

Maybe it's because they don't care about the Vietnam thing -- which came out months ago -- as much as you apparently think they do.

It's because he's been the state's Attorney General for decades.  Everyone knows him, and seem to like his public persona of helping protect widows and orphans while attending every local event possible.

I can't stand grandstanding AGs - but that's not a widely shared view among the electorate.

[xavier110]

Blumenthal's a really cool guy.

[Franzl]

Found McMahon a lot more impressive than Blumenthal in the debate I just watched. Both style and even content were pretty impressive.

Blumenthal seemed rather...I dunno...uninspiring. He seems competent enough, but I think he needs to do better than that.

I don't believe the PPP numbers at any rate.

[cinyc]

Found McMahon a lot more impressive than Blumenthal in the debate I just watched. Both style and even content were pretty impressive.

Blumenthal seemed rather...I dunno...uninspiring. He seems competent enough, but I think he needs to do better than that.

I don't believe the PPP numbers at any rate.

Eh, Blumenthal is Blumenthal.  He might come across as wooden to those who don't see him much, but I suspect the Hartford/New Haven TV market Connecticut voters who bothered to watch the debate pretty much got what they're used to seeing from Dick Blumenthal on the local news - a competent but boring presentation outlining the facts as he sees them.   

I thought both candidates performed reasonably well.   Nobody really got any good zingers in that will change the race much.