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Author Topic: PPP/LA-02: Cao down by double digits  (Read 3189 times)
Lіef
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« on: October 04, 2010, 03:42:15 pm »
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http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/2/LA-2/9/veCYR

Cedric Richmond (D): 49%
Joseph Cao (R, Inc.): 38%
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2010, 03:48:07 pm »
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Well, that didn't take a genius. Tongue
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2010, 03:56:30 pm »
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Doing goodish but not nearly good enough, then?
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2010, 03:58:21 pm »
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He's doing surprisingly well. Still, easy Dem pickup.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2010, 03:59:06 pm »
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That's respectable. He'll lose with his head held high.
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2010, 04:03:10 pm »
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Is Cao the shortest member of congress?
He like barley reaches 5 feet.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2010, 04:06:56 pm »
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5'2'' according to numerous google hits (so not far off). No idea if that makes him the shortest member of Congress, maybe some woman has him beat? Pretty damn sure there were shorter members in the 18th and 19th century, though.
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2010, 04:11:08 pm »
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Barbara Boxer is 4'11'', apparently.

James Madison was the shortest president at 5'4''.
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2010, 04:27:41 pm »
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Barbara mikulski is supposed to be the shortest congressperson.

DEM pick up.
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2010, 04:30:04 pm »
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He like barley reaches 5 feet.

Nonsense. There were a load of barley fields near where I grew up and the crop never grew anything like that tall.
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2010, 04:42:58 pm »
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Dennis Kucinich? His shortness has probably been exaggerated though. Tongue
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2010, 05:25:29 pm »
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McCain got like 25% here right? So not bad all things considered for him. He still loses obviously.
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2010, 05:32:56 pm »
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Finally, someone polled LA-02. The result is unsurprising, of course, but I'm glad someone finally confirmed it.

Now, I'd like a poll of AL-02, please.
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2010, 05:44:40 pm »
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Finally, someone polled LA-02. The result is unsurprising, of course, but I'm glad someone finally confirmed it.

Now, I'd like a poll of AL-02, please.

Didn't Bright's opponent have an internal showing her down?

Don't see why you'd like or care about such a poll though, a Republican wins either way.
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2010, 05:58:56 pm »
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Finally, someone polled LA-02. The result is unsurprising, of course, but I'm glad someone finally confirmed it.

Now, I'd like a poll of AL-02, please.

Didn't Bright's opponent have an internal showing her down?

Don't see why you'd like or care about such a poll though, a Republican wins either way.

I meant a public poll, not an internal.

I care because I want to forecast the damn race correctly.
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2010, 09:37:56 pm »
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No surprise here. When you barely beat a guy who stores cash in his freezer, your chances of re-election are probably not real good.
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« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2010, 09:41:53 pm »
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Only 11 points? Hm, not good enough. This is, after all, a Democrat in LA-02.

That said I still expect the Democrats to pick up the seat.
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2010, 01:00:22 am »
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     Good to see someone finally confirm the obvious: that Cao is finished. It was humorous to see folks suggest that he might possibly win re-election.
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2010, 01:08:40 am »
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Should've voted for health insurance reform, poor bastard.
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2010, 01:44:00 am »

It was humorous to see folks suggest that he might possibly win re-election.

People said the same about Walt Minnick.  Smiley
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2010, 01:47:43 am »
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It was humorous to see folks suggest that he might possibly win re-election.

People said the same about Walt Minnick.  Smiley

     Democrats tend to be more partisan, from what I can tell. Minnick is conservative enough to be able to easily hold his district, while Cao is sunk more or less by virtue of the fact that he has an R next to his name.
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« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2010, 03:57:18 am »
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It was humorous to see folks suggest that he might possibly win re-election.

People said the same about Walt Minnick.  Smiley

     Democrats tend to be more partisan, from what I can tell. Minnick is conservative enough to be able to easily hold his district, while Cao is sunk more or less by virtue of the fact that he has an R next to his name.

I think racial voting has something to do with it as well. A liberal Republican probably has a reasonable shot of holding a white liberal Democratic district. (That said, Cao probably isn't liberal enough for his district anyway).
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Dgov
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« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2010, 05:56:24 am »
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Should've voted for health insurance reform, poor bastard.

Do you honestly think it would have mattered?  I'm willing to bet less than 1% more of voters would have voted for him if he had.
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« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2010, 07:14:55 am »
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     Good to see someone finally confirm the obvious: that Cao is finished. It was humorous to see folks suggest that he might possibly win re-election.

There's a guy on SSP that thinks he can still win. He's a Republican that lives in New Orleans, so I guess you have to keep hope alive.
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« Reply #24 on: October 05, 2010, 08:43:54 am »
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fivethirtyeight still gives Cao about a 1/3 chance of winning (although without this poll I think). You can't just say that's due to Cao's internal where he was up big, because that poll is hardly weighted at all.
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