Will one candidate break away or will NV and IL remain tied until election day?

[tpfkaw]

What do you think?

[Lief 🗽]

NV will remain tied, Alexi will pull away in IL.

[Skill and Chance]

NV will remain tied, Alexi will pull away in IL.

I agree.  Although, there is maybe a 25% chance that Angle pulls away in NV to the tune of an 8-10 point lead by election day. 

[Franzl]

I have no idea. Nevada is more likely to stay where it is.....and if Illinois goes in one direction, I think we can guess which direction it'll be.

[Sam Spade]

We'll see - I expect these races to go one way because tied races for a long while tend to break at some point (I know not why - they just do).  The bet should be on NV to GOP and IL to Dems, but I don't know.  Kirk is a Combiner, so if Alexi really does suck, Dems may play games.  On the other hand, Angle has always underpolled in any other races she's run in, but maybe Hispanics really are being undersampled.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I think IL will remain tied all the way. The same probably goes for NV, but if not I'd expect Reid to pull away.

[Torie]

I have no idea myself, but I would be surprised if  the numbers will change by much. The big issue is who the relatively few undecided voters are. Normally, there would tend in the end to go to the challenger (Dick Morris is right on that one), but nothing is normal about this race.

[Ogre Mage]

It's hard for me to see a breakaway when both campaigns are a race to the bottom.  I suppose a breakaway in IL is slightly more likely due to the Democratic tilt of the state.

[Smash255]

I think the Dems will wind up winning both.  I think it will show up a bit more in the polls in IL than in NV, but in the end I think Reid actually wins by more.  You will always have people who will go into the booth and change their mind, and I think this is especially true in races like the races in IL & NV when none of them are popular.   Angle probably gets impacted most by this since she is completely crazy, so Reid gets more of those last minute switchers, or last minute hold your nose decider votes.