Republicans not confident of taking House

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

20? I count about 12-15 (and that's being mildly generous, actually). At least, that I feel *confident* are in the bag - there's a lot of others that *might already be* in the bag for all I know.

I also count 15 Democratic seats that are "gone"/in-the-bag: NY-29, PA-3, PA-11, VA-5, FL-24, LA-3, TX-17, AR-2, TN-6, OH-1, OH-15, IL-11, KS-3, WA-3,  and CO-4

Also 3 Republican-held seats are "gone": Delaware's seat, HI-1, and LA-2

Ive got:

AR-02
CO-04
FL-24
IL-11
IN-08(Ellsworth you idiot!!)
LA-03(will be gone in redistricting)
MI-01
NY-29
PA-03
PA-07
PA-11
TN-06
TN-08
TX-17
VA-05
WI-08

That is pretty much the floor.  

If PA-03 is gone, so is PA-10

Also, I think that AR-01 is just as gone as TN-08.

And after Grayson's ridiculous Taliban Dan ad, I am thinking that FL-08 will soon join the list as well. 

[Mr.Phips]

20? I count about 12-15 (and that's being mildly generous, actually). At least, that I feel *confident* are in the bag - there's a lot of others that *might already be* in the bag for all I know.

I also count 15 Democratic seats that are "gone"/in-the-bag: NY-29, PA-3, PA-11, VA-5, FL-24, LA-3, TX-17, AR-2, TN-6, OH-1, OH-15, IL-11, KS-3, WA-3,  and CO-4

Also 3 Republican-held seats are "gone": Delaware's seat, HI-1, and LA-2

Ive got:

AR-02
CO-04
FL-24
IL-11
IN-08(Ellsworth you idiot!!)
LA-03(will be gone in redistricting)
MI-01
NY-29
PA-03
PA-07
PA-11
TN-06
TN-08
TX-17
VA-05
WI-08

That is pretty much the floor.  

If PA-03 is gone, so is PA-10

Also, I think that AR-01 is just as gone as TN-08.

And after Grayson's ridiculous Taliban Dan ad, I am thinking that FL-08 will soon join the list as well. 

I think Carney has a chance after the Marino casino scandal came out.  I think Republicans are more likely than not to take AR-01, but Democrats could still hold it. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

20? I count about 12-15 (and that's being mildly generous, actually). At least, that I feel *confident* are in the bag - there's a lot of others that *might already be* in the bag for all I know.

I also count 15 Democratic seats that are "gone"/in-the-bag: NY-29, PA-3, PA-11, VA-5, FL-24, LA-3, TX-17, AR-2, TN-6, OH-1, OH-15, IL-11, KS-3, WA-3,  and CO-4

Also 3 Republican-held seats are "gone": Delaware's seat, HI-1, and LA-2

Ive got:

AR-02
CO-04
FL-24
IL-11
IN-08(Ellsworth you idiot!!)
LA-03(will be gone in redistricting)
MI-01
NY-29
PA-03
PA-07
PA-11
TN-06
TN-08
TX-17
VA-05
WI-08

That is pretty much the floor.  

If PA-03 is gone, so is PA-10

Also, I think that AR-01 is just as gone as TN-08.

And after Grayson's ridiculous Taliban Dan ad, I am thinking that FL-08 will soon join the list as well. 

I actually think that Carney could hold on because of all of Marino's baggage, and I'd argue Carney's a much stronger candidate than Dahlkemper.  Honestly, PA-10 narrowly reelecting Carney wouldn't surprise me (actually it's what I think will happen) and the seat is certainly not "gone".  I have AR-1 as a Republican pickup, but I wouldn't say it's "gone", it is still possible (but highly unlikely) that the Democrats hold it, although this seat could be "gone" by election day.  I actually don't think TN-8 is "gone" (it is certainly far more competitive than AR-1).  Roy Herron is a far better candidate than Chad Causey, and Democrats in TN-8 don't have to deal with the effects of a bitter primary, while in AR-1 the Democratic runner-up more or less endorsed the Republican.  Maybe I'm missing something, but I've never understood why many were so quick to write-off TN-8.  As for FL-8, while I think Webster is favored, the race is still close and Grayson could win.  FL-8 certainly isn't "gone". 

[Sam Spade]

Couple of observations:

TN-08 is more gone than AR-01.  Niether is completely gone.  Watch.

Also, I think FL-08 is gone.  Though NRCC is spending money.  Which means it is not "put away."

OH-01 and OH-15 are gone.  Dems haven't even lifted a finger in these two CDs.

[Sam Spade]

Btw, I looked over things this weekend, and this article jives with what I'm seeing. 15-20 gone seats with another 15-20 (for 35 or so total) that I see Republicans trying to put away, but haven't successfully.  Then another 35-45 that are seriously in play and being fought over, but not ones that Republicans "think they should have."

Dems basically have LA-02, DE-AL.  No one's advertising in HI-01 - read that as you wish.  IL-10 is being fought over heavily by both sides.  Nothing else is.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Btw, I looked over things this weekend, and this article jives with what I'm seeing. 15-20 gone seats with another 15-20 (for 35 or so total) that I see Republicans trying to put away, but haven't successfully.  Then another 35-45 that are seriously in play and being fought over, but not ones that Republicans "think they should have."

Dems basically have LA-02, DE-AL.  No one's advertising in HI-01 - read that as you wish.  IL-10 is being fought over heavily by both sides.  Nothing else is.

As I understand it, the parties tend to stay out of Hawaii elections because Hawaiians view it as outside interference (hence why the DCCC's attempted support of Case backfired).

[Torie]

Here is the NRCC hit list of 45 CD's where they are running ads tying the Dem to Pelosi.  Not much on the list is a surprise, but OR-5 being on the list is. That seat got a 125K ad money drop.

[Sam Spade]

Btw, I looked over things this weekend, and this article jives with what I'm seeing. 15-20 gone seats with another 15-20 (for 35 or so total) that I see Republicans trying to put away, but haven't successfully.  Then another 35-45 that are seriously in play and being fought over, but not ones that Republicans "think they should have."

Dems basically have LA-02, DE-AL.  No one's advertising in HI-01 - read that as you wish.  IL-10 is being fought over heavily by both sides.  Nothing else is.

As I understand it, the parties tend to stay out of Hawaii elections because Hawaiians view it as outside interference (hence why the DCCC's attempted support of Case backfired).

'tis why I said "read that as you wish."