IN-02/EPIC-MRA - Donnelly ahead by 9
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  IN-02/EPIC-MRA - Donnelly ahead by 9
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Author Topic: IN-02/EPIC-MRA - Donnelly ahead by 9  (Read 2063 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: October 05, 2010, 06:20:07 PM »

http://www.wsbt.com/news/local/WSBT-poll-shows-Donnelly-leads-Walorski-in-2nd-District-Congressional-race-104375928.html

Joe Donnelly (D) - 48
Jackie Walorski (R) - 39
Mike Vogel (L) - 6

Without leaners, it's 39-34-4. Donnelly's favorables are 47-32, while Walorski's are 32-35.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2010, 06:40:41 PM »

I really hope this race closes up, and I think it will. Walorski has a motivated and energized campaign going, and seems to be putting much more effort into it than Donnelly. Vogel's numbers are also probably slightly exaggerated.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2010, 08:20:54 PM »

Donnelly ran ads bashing Obama, I think.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2010, 08:12:39 AM »

I really hope this race closes up, and I think it will. Walorski has a motivated and energized campaign going, and seems to be putting much more effort into it than Donnelly.
So, in other words, it's only going to get better for Donnelly (or go nowhere at all. Barring events. Also, the poll may simply be wrong. What I am concerned with here is simply basic logic. If your campaign is motivated and energized and you're still trailing by a considerable amount, you're up sh!t creek without a paddle. If you're trailing by a considerable - but not landslide - amount because you're opponent's campaign is more motivated and energized and whatnot, you have a mammoth task ahead of you but still everything to hope for. People who fail to understand something as basic as that should be banned from commenting on politics. Tongue )
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2010, 05:46:43 PM »

I really hope this race closes up, and I think it will. Walorski has a motivated and energized campaign going, and seems to be putting much more effort into it than Donnelly.
So, in other words, it's only going to get better for Donnelly (or go nowhere at all. Barring events. Also, the poll may simply be wrong. What I am concerned with here is simply basic logic. If your campaign is motivated and energized and you're still trailing by a considerable amount, you're up sh!t creek without a paddle. If you're trailing by a considerable - but not landslide - amount because you're opponent's campaign is more motivated and energized and whatnot, you have a mammoth task ahead of you but still everything to hope for. People who fail to understand something as basic as that should be banned from commenting on politics. Tongue )


Or maybe it's the fact that Republicans are running a candidate that was virtually unknown at the beginning and has spent months convincing people that this was a competitive race and that she could win? Donnelly has already alienated some of the hardcore liberal base by going after Obama and Pelosi. Not saying they'll vote for Walorski, but they may just stay home. Walorski was down by 20 points back in August, and she's closed the gap. I don't see what's so crazy about saying that an energized campaign can continue to come from behind and pull of an upset over a campaign that had a large lead but lost it due to not working as hard for it.
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2010, 09:23:49 PM »

I expected this seat to go GOP, so this is a bit of a shocker.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2010, 03:24:42 AM »

I really hope this race closes up, and I think it will. Walorski has a motivated and energized campaign going, and seems to be putting much more effort into it than Donnelly.
So, in other words, it's only going to get better for Donnelly (or go nowhere at all. Barring events. Also, the poll may simply be wrong. What I am concerned with here is simply basic logic. If your campaign is motivated and energized and you're still trailing by a considerable amount, you're up sh!t creek without a paddle. If you're trailing by a considerable - but not landslide - amount because you're opponent's campaign is more motivated and energized and whatnot, you have a mammoth task ahead of you but still everything to hope for. People who fail to understand something as basic as that should be banned from commenting on politics. Tongue )


Or maybe it's the fact that Republicans are running a candidate that was virtually unknown at the beginning and has spent months convincing people that this was a competitive race and that she could win? Donnelly has already alienated some of the hardcore liberal base by going after Obama and Pelosi. Not saying they'll vote for Walorski, but they may just stay home. Walorski was down by 20 points back in August, and she's closed the gap. I don't see what's so crazy about saying that an energized campaign can continue to come from behind and pull of an upset over a campaign that had a large lead but lost it due to not working as hard for it.
Too late for that. (It might be somewhat different if the Republican Party were actually popular.)
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2010, 02:33:06 PM »

Donnelly's approvals are +15? Maybe it has something to do with this: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/03/stats-say-kucinich-may-be-least.html

According to Mr. Silver, he's voting to the right of how a Democrat in IN-02 would be expected to vote on key issues.
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