OH-15: Penn Schoen Berland: Stivers leads Kilroy

[Rowan]

OH-15

Stivers (R) 47%
Kilroy (D) 38%

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-anga-poll-week1/122861-district-by-district-ohio

[Badger]

OH-15

Stivers (R) 47%
Kilroy (D) 38%

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-anga-poll-week1/122861-district-by-district-ohio

Ick. To think we're looking at electing someone who says he'd replace the graduated income tax with a flat tax or national sales tax, and recently claimed he changed his support of electing US senators by the state legislatures "after seeing Scott Brown elected in Massachusetts".

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Some real wackos are going to break into the House unnoticed this year, no doubt.

[ex-Senator X]

OH-15

Stivers (R) 47%
Kilroy (D) 38%

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-anga-poll-week1/122861-district-by-district-ohio

Ick. To think we're looking at electing someone who says he'd replace the graduated income tax with a flat tax or national sales tax, and recently claimed he changed his support of electing US senators by the state legislatures "after seeing Scott Brown elected in Massachusetts".

Agreed, although Kilroy is a pretty crappy candidate

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Stivers came within a hair in 2008 in a open seat that an powerfull incumbent Republican almost lost in 2006. I have expected this to be a pretty good pickup opportunity since last year and especially when Stivers won with 80% in the primary.

[ex-Senator X]

Stivers came within a hair in 2008 in a open seat that an powerfull incumbent Republican almost lost in 2006. I have expected this to be a pretty good pickup opportunity since last year and especially when Stivers won with 80% in the primary.

After Kilroy nearly blew this race against in 2008 (back when Stivers was just center-right), I predicted (I think it was in December 2008) that she would be a goner as soon as she ran in a year that wasn't Democratic wave.  Kilroy would be doomed even if this were a neutral year (although Stivers certainly wouldn't have started pandering to tea-bagger types), because of how weak a campaigner she is (she also is to economically liberal for the district).  The silver lining for the Democrats is that Stivers has moved so far to the right that he could lose the next time he runs in a year that isn't a Republican wave   However, that isn't guaranteed like Kilroy's defeat is.

[Vasall des Midas]

Who redistricts Ohio next year? Could we see a decently cut Columbus district that doesn't put its Black parts into the overwhelmingly rural 12th?

[Dgov]

Who redistricts Ohio next year? Could we see a decently cut Columbus district that doesn't put its Black parts into the overwhelmingly rural 12th?

Republicans most likely.  Though It'll be interesting to see what kind of map they draw around Columbus.