Stivers came within a hair in 2008 in a open seat that an powerfull incumbent Republican almost lost in 2006. I have expected this to be a pretty good pickup opportunity since last year and especially when Stivers won with 80% in the primary.
After Kilroy nearly blew this race against in 2008 (back when Stivers was just center-right), I predicted (I think it was in December 2008) that she would be a goner as soon as she ran in a year that wasn't Democratic wave. Kilroy would be doomed even if this were a neutral year (although Stivers certainly wouldn't have started pandering to tea-bagger types), because of how weak a campaigner she is (she also is to economically liberal for the district). The silver lining for the Democrats is that Stivers has moved so far to the right that he could lose the next time he runs in a year that isn't a Republican wave
However, that isn't guaranteed like Kilroy's defeat is.