WV: Rasmussen: Raese moves further ahead

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: West Virginia Senator (Special) by Rasmussen on 2010-10-05

Summary: D: 44%, R: 50%, I: 2%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[SvenssonRS]

Well, I think Manchin is screwed.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Well, I think Manchin is screwed.

Just goes to show you how capable voters are at separating federal and state races.

[Eraserhead]

I'm pretty much writing this one off. You have to hand it to the GOP, they employed a great strategy here. A vote for Raese is basically a vote to keep Manchin as governor in the minds of many now... and well... I suppose it is.

[Skill and Chance]

There will almost certainly be a 2012 rematch if Raese wins.  Ironically, Obama being on the ballot would be a major burden for Manchin.

[Meeker]

I think Carte Goodwin would be the most likely challenger to Raese.

[SvenssonRS]

I think Carte Goodwin would be the most likely challenger to Raese.

Really? I'm honestly of the opinion that he'll run for Gov, if anything, since Manchin's out in 2012.

[dmmidmi]

There will almost certainly be a 2012 rematch if Raese wins.  Ironically, Obama being on the ballot would be a major burden for Manchin.

When Obama was on the ballot in 2008, Jay Rockefeller won in a landslide.

[Franzl]

I wouldn't write this off actually, I still think Manchin can surprise us.

[Keystone Phil]

This one is far from over. Manchin is still too personally popular and widely approved of as Governor to declare him dead in this race. I'm doing everything I can not to get my hopes up here.

Well, I think Manchin is screwed.

Just goes to show you how capable voters are at separating federal and state races.

I'm not convinced yet. When someone is as popular as he is, I think people have a very hard time voting against that candidate. But when we're talking about West Virginia and its feelings towards the Obama and the Dems, we might have found an exception.

I know one thing: a certain Congresswoman from the state must be kicking herself right now.

[GMantis]

This one is far from over. Manchin is still too personally popular and widely approved of as Governor to declare him dead in this race. I'm doing everything I can not to get my hopes up here.

That might hurt more than it helps - here's an article describing why:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=123851.0

[Keystone Phil]

This one is far from over. Manchin is still too personally popular and widely approved of as Governor to declare him dead in this race. I'm doing everything I can not to get my hopes up here.

That might hurt more than it helps - here's an article describing why:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=123851.0

Eh, maybe. I just think playing up someone's positives isn't the best strategy.

[Lief 🗽]

I know one thing: a certain Congresswoman from the state must be kicking herself right now.

She'll just be governor in two years instead. No need to kick herself.

[J. J.]

I'm pretty much writing this one off. You have to hand it to the GOP, they employed a great strategy here. A vote for Raese is basically a vote to keep Manchin as governor in the minds of many now... and well... I suppose it is.

The Vorlon called it.

[Meeker]

I'm pretty much writing this one off. You have to hand it to the GOP, they employed a great strategy here. A vote for Raese is basically a vote to keep Manchin as governor in the minds of many now... and well... I suppose it is.

The Vorlon called it.

The ads from Raese and the NRSC have all been about trying Manchin to Obama, not about how Manchin should instead stay on as a governor. I'm not sure what you or Eraserhead are talking about.

[Eraserhead]

I'm pretty much writing this one off. You have to hand it to the GOP, they employed a great strategy here. A vote for Raese is basically a vote to keep Manchin as governor in the minds of many now... and well... I suppose it is.

The Vorlon called it.

The ads from Raese and the NRSC have all been about trying Manchin to Obama, not about how Manchin should instead stay on as a governor. I'm not sure what you or Eraserhead are talking about.

That can't be entirely true because I saw a great ad on television (Hardball or something) last night with some guys in a diner talking about how they needed to keep Manchin as governor and keep him away from the evil Washington hands of Obama, etc. I'll look and see if I can find it online.

[Brittain33]

It's posted at Talking Points Memo. I don't know if I'd call it great, the people are obviously actors and it was filmed a long way from WV, yet they're dressed up in WV working class drag... seems really inauthentic in a place where that matters.

[Eraserhead]

It's posted at Talking Points Memo. I don't know if I'd call it great, the people are obviously actors and it was filmed a long way from WV, yet they're dressed up in WV working class drag... seems really inauthentic in a place where that matters.

They're white. That's all that really matters. It gets the point across well enough.

[Skill and Chance]

I know one thing: a certain Congresswoman from the state must be kicking herself right now.

She'll just be governor in two years instead. No need to kick herself.

The person who should really be kicking himself right now is Beau Biden.  Coons is under 50 and will probably stay in the Senate for decades.  He could try to push Carper out in 2012, but that is about the only option he has left.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Beau wanted to be a dick, he'd just primary Coons in 2014. No way would he challenge Carper.

[Skill and Chance]

If Beau wanted to be a dick, he'd just primary Coons in 2014. No way would he challenge Carper.

I mean that Joe would exert his influence to get Carper to retire in 2012.  Then again, he's only 63 so I don't think it's all that likely that he would give in.  I wonder if Castle will challenge Carper after all the 2010 dust settles?

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So the Republican perennial candidate is leading the popular Democratic Governor. It's the sort of thing that, had one suggested it six months ago, would have immediately led to accusations of hackishness, & rightfully so.

[tpfkaw]

So the Republican perennial candidate is leading the popular Democratic Governor. It's the sort of thing that, had one suggested it six months ago, would have immediately led to accusations of hackishness, & rightfully so.

. . . Six months ago, Robert Byrd was still alive.

[Associate Justice PiT]

So the Republican perennial candidate is leading the popular Democratic Governor. It's the sort of thing that, had one suggested it six months ago, would have immediately led to accusations of hackishness, & rightfully so.

. . . Six months ago, Robert Byrd was still alive.

     I meant that as a sort of meta-comment.

[Brittain33]

It's posted at Talking Points Memo. I don't know if I'd call it great, the people are obviously actors and it was filmed a long way from WV, yet they're dressed up in WV working class drag... seems really inauthentic in a place where that matters.

They're white. That's all that really matters. It gets the point across well enough.

TPM has the casting memo. This is funny.

I'm trying to imagine how people would have discussed this if it was the Obama campaign trying to write an ad for Appalachian voters in 2008.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/gop-ad-men-sought-hicky-actors-for-west-virginia-senate-race-spo-video.php?ref=fpb