CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5

[Vasall des Midas]

The issue is probably that elderly non-posh, not working class either, people do not have degrees. Though their children or grandchildren do (in America. In Germany, not necessarily. The degree explosion hasn't really continued apace here in the last twenty years.)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I have coworkers who don't have college degrees; they're in white-collar office jobs. Does this count as "working-class"?

[Vasall des Midas]

I have coworkers who don't have college degrees; they're in white-collar office jobs. Does this count as "working-class"?

That would depend on what kind of "white-collar office job"; as well as on their family background, values, outlook on life.

[Sibboleth]

AP argues that because of income disparities in different parts of the country, defining working class by educational background instead of income makes sense.  A $50,000 family income in NYC is practically peanuts.  $50,000 in Dubuque is a lot more.

Yeah, I'd guess that was probably the reason given. The problem is that this is not a geography of class:



Even if class is a factor in it. Another problem is the tendency of people to lie about their qualifications. In most countries the effect of that would be obvious, but I wonder if it might work the other way in America, given post-1960s anti-intellectual discourses*.

That said given that non-working class people who are prepared to admit that they don't have a degree are likely the staunchest in support for today's Republican Party, any significant movement amongst whites without degrees is probably related more to movement amongst working class voters, rather than the others.

*Often promoted by... er... intellectuals. But then, hey. Engels was a capitalist.

[Torie]

Here are the swings based on PVI (in the margins, so you get the baseline margin by doubling the PVI percentage)in the 5 CT districts:

1. +21%R
2. +2%D
3. +3%D
4. +8%R
5. +9%R

The comments here as to why the variance seem reasonable to me.

[Big DaddyTX]

People are abandoning Democrats, especially blue collar working class voters. The Problem is that this is New England and CT-02's blue collar workers might be resistant to voting GOP like has been seen in RI and Bristol, MA. This is the type of year in which such business as usuall can change but it doesn't mean it will and definately doesn't mean it is uniform acrossed these states.

Actually, Bristol County, MA had the second-largest swing of any MA county from McCain to Brown, and the largest swing from the Republican in most recent major competitive statewide races (Weld v. Kerry and Romney v. O'Brien).  Granted, Scott Brown was from a neighboring county - but I don't think that explained all of it.  

I don't think CT-02's blue collar workers are resistant to voting GOP.  They did vote for Simmons.  

One major difference between CT-02 and CT-04 and CT-05 is the lack of a Democratic stronghold city with a large minority population whose residents likely won't turn out in anywhere close to the same percentages this year as in '08.  CT-04 has Bridgeport.  CT-05 has New Britain and Danbury.  Bridgeport turnout will likely determine who wins CT-04.

Actually, Bridgeport wont have an effect on it. Its all coming down to my city of Norwalk. Voters arent going to come out like they did in 2008, and especially in Bridgeport. Stamford will probably still lean Dem, but if you can win Norwalk, you'll win the election.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

People are abandoning Democrats, especially blue collar working class voters. The Problem is that this is New England and CT-02's blue collar workers might be resistant to voting GOP like has been seen in RI and Bristol, MA. This is the type of year in which such business as usuall can change but it doesn't mean it will and definately doesn't mean it is uniform acrossed these states.

Actually, Bristol County, MA had the second-largest swing of any MA county from McCain to Brown, and the largest swing from the Republican in most recent major competitive statewide races (Weld v. Kerry and Romney v. O'Brien).  Granted, Scott Brown was from a neighboring county - but I don't think that explained all of it.  

I don't think CT-02's blue collar workers are resistant to voting GOP.  They did vote for Simmons.  

One major difference between CT-02 and CT-04 and CT-05 is the lack of a Democratic stronghold city with a large minority population whose residents likely won't turn out in anywhere close to the same percentages this year as in '08.  CT-04 has Bridgeport.  CT-05 has New Britain and Danbury.  Bridgeport turnout will likely determine who wins CT-04.

Why the hell do you think I included the Sentence about uniformity. I mean I could write books of posts explaining all the twists and turns and sub points but no one would read them because of length. I am fully aware of Scott Brown's victory in Bristol and such forth. Thats why I said the trend may not be uniform. OVer the last 30 years those areas have been resistent to Republican overtures unlike similar areas around the country. Hency my inclusion of the sentence just prior.

CT-02 does have Groton. It may not be large but certainly hasn't been moving towards the GOP. Simmons did well there I beleive. Others will likely struggle till you get the right combo of candidate, year and turnout.