CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5

[Torie]

Murphy (D) is down 5%, while McMahon is down 10% statewide (a 15% difference).  CT-5 is about 10% more GOP than the state. So this to me is another indicator of just how nationalized this election is, absent unusual circumstances.

[Torie]

Here are the swings based on PVI (in the margins, so you get the baseline margin by doubling the PVI percentage)in the 5 CT districts:

1. +21%R
2. +2%D
3. +3%D
4. +8%R
5. +9%R

The comments here as to why the variance seem reasonable to me.