CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5

[minionofmidas]

The poll release said McMahon performed her best in CT-05.  

Anything else would be quite surprising.

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You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.


I'd been somewhat wondering why I hadn't heard anything on the two eastern CT races.
Some people have this line about how a score of D incumbents are probably in trouble who don't even know it yet - how some seats might fall that nobody talked about - and I thought about what races they might mean and could think of about a dozen. These two were among them.

[minionofmidas]

You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.

Nobody is abandoning the Democrats in large numbers, not even to nonvoting. What's actually happening is Republicans are turning out in record numbers for a midterm. And the fourth, being far more suburban, is much more likely to vote party not person in downballot races.
This isn't to say that the second might not be competitive too - just that it might not be.

[minionofmidas]

CT Capitol Reports' pollster claims the result is due to Courtney localizing the race.

Which is easier to do in some types of areas than others. And certainly ought to be easier in eastern Connecticut that western Connecticut.
Which brings me back to what I've been saying here, and for weeks, and Sam Spade has been implying for months. (Yankee's got it too.)

[minionofmidas]

Pollsters actually expect the second-highest Dem percentage (of the available electorate) in a midterm in a long long time. 2006 being highest.
The issue is that they're also expecting a record-shattering Rep percentage.

[minionofmidas]

The issue is probably that elderly non-posh, not working class either, people do not have degrees. Though their children or grandchildren do (in America. In Germany, not necessarily. The degree explosion hasn't really continued apace here in the last twenty years.)

[minionofmidas]

I have coworkers who don't have college degrees; they're in white-collar office jobs. Does this count as "working-class"?

That would depend on what kind of "white-collar office job"; as well as on their family background, values, outlook on life.