RCP Senate No Toss Ups: GOP+9 50/50

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

50/50 Senate

GOP Pickups:  AR · CO · IL · IN · NV · ND · PA · WV · WI

Notice that WA, CA, NY, CT are still dangling.

[Eraserhead]

NY and CT are dangling in your mind only.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

NY and CT are dangling in your mind only.

[The Vorlon]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

50/50 Senate

GOP Pickups:  AR · CO · IL · IN · NV · ND · PA · WV · WI

Notice that WA, CA, NY, CT are still dangling.

Washington... maybe
KAL- EEE - Forn - YA!... still a live race.
NY and CT are on the very outer edge of plausability.. If the GOP takes these seats that means they pick up 100 seats in the House. - Possible - Yes, Likely, no.

[Franzl]

Illinois, Nevada especially....but also West Virginia to an extent may currently have Republican leads.....but they're certainly not solid pick-ups (yet).

In addition to winning ALL of those....Republicans still have to take one of Washington and California. New York and Connecticut are NOT seriously in play.

It's possible....reasonably possible that Republicans can take the Senate....but there isn't a very big room for error for them. If any of those states doesn't work out: Game Over.

Maybe about a 1/3 chance, IMO, that everything the GOP needs works out for them.

[The Vorlon]

Illinois, Nevada especially....but also West Virginia to an extent may currently have Republican leads.....but they're certainly not solid pick-ups (yet).

In addition to winning ALL of those....Republicans still have to take one of Washington and California. New York and Connecticut are NOT seriously in play.

It's possible....reasonably possible that Republicans can take the Senate....but there isn't a very big room for error for them. If any of those states doesn't work out: Game Over.

Maybe about a 1/3 chance, IMO, that everything the GOP needs works out for them.

You have it pretty much where I have things.

The GOP "could" draw that inside straight, but it's a long shot.

The GOP has ZERO margin for error. 

If Castle hadn't been tea-partied the GOP would be a (thin) favorite to take back the Senate.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

At least Castle was defeated. We will have someone who sides with Obama 95% of the time ideas of 25% of the time!

[Franzl]

At least Castle was defeated. We will have someone who sides with Obama 95% of the time ideas of 25% of the time!

We don't need more "RINOs" in the Senate (also known as communists), Duke. All or nothing for me! Those wanna-be communists are almost as pathetic as the real one sitting in the White House. We need good people who love the Lord to represent us, people like Jim DeMint....don't you agree?

[cinyc]

NY and CT are dangling in your mind only.

The DSCC is dumping $1.6 million into Connecticut.  For whatever reason, they're still nervous about the race.  I have a suspicion that the McMahon campaign's op research team is holding back some dirt on Blumenthal for future release, but we'll have to wait and see if I'm correct.

I've always said absent another Blumenthal gaffe on the "I served in Vietnam" level, he will win.  Like most AGs, his support is wide, but shallow.  And he's not exactly telegenic.  McMahon is very telegenic.

NY is a pipe dream.

[Dan the Roman]

NY and CT are dangling in your mind only.

The DSCC is dumping $1.6 million into Connecticut.  For whatever reason, they're still nervous about the race.  I have a suspicion that the McMahon campaign's op research team is holding back some dirt on Blumenthal for future release, but we'll have to wait and see if I'm correct.

I've always said absent another Blumenthal gaffe on the "I served in Vietnam" level, he will win.  Like most AGs, his support is wide, but shallow.  And he's not exactly telegenic.  McMahon is very telegenic.

NY is a pipe dream.

Part of that is probably as a proxy for a bankrupt DGA. In addition to the senate race there are two close house races, and more importantly a gubernatorial race a few points closer than the senate one. The latter is particularly important because it would give the democrats the trifecta, and regardless of what happens this year the current map is asking for trouble. With a bit of creativity they can make the 2nd and 4th safe and strengthen the 5th the extra-point or two it needs.

The DSCC is oddly not wanting for money that much. The inversion of how many seats are written off is that there is no real need to waste money in Ohio, Florida, or Delaware. The battlefield is really just Nevada, Colorado, Washington, California, and maybe NH and WV, with the Democrats in every one of thsoe except the last having cash advantages.

[Lief 🗽]

NY and CT are dangling in your mind only.

A lot of things are dangling in jmcfst's mind.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

NY and CT are dangling in your mind only.

The DSCC is dumping $1.6 million into Connecticut.  For whatever reason, they're still nervous about the race.  I have a suspicion that the McMahon campaign's op research team is holding back some dirt on Blumenthal for future release, but we'll have to wait and see if I'm correct.

I've always said absent another Blumenthal gaffe on the "I served in Vietnam" level, he will win.  Like most AGs, his support is wide, but shallow.  And he's not exactly telegenic.  McMahon is very telegenic.

NY is a pipe dream.

Yes, we know, because you say this EVERY TIME THIS RACE COMES UP.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

NY and CT are dangling in your mind only.

A lot of things are dangling in jmcfst's mind.

first and foremost is the inability of many posters to spell my stage name correctly.  It's a mother-beautiful name, and it should be spelled correctly!

[??????????]

At least Castle was defeated. We will have someone who sides with Obama 95% of the time ideas of 25% of the time!

Actually Castle has a 55% GOP voting record and an F rating with the NRA. Being that I'm only probably one of perhaps three conservatives on this forum, I support O'Donnell, proudly.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

At least Castle was defeated. We will have someone who sides with Obama 95% of the time ideas of 25% of the time!

Actually Castle has a 55% GOP voting record and an F rating with the NRA. Being that I'm only probably one of perhaps three conservatives on this forum, I support O'Donnell, proudly.

That's not right, but I'll humor you and say it is.   Why would you prefer Coons 0% GOP voting record to Castle's 55%?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

At least Castle was defeated. We will have someone who sides with Obama 95% of the time ideas of 25% of the time!

Actually Castle has a 55% GOP voting record and an F rating with the NRA. Being that I'm only probably one of perhaps three conservatives on this forum, I support O'Donnell, proudly.

That's not right, but I'll humor you and say it is.   Why would you prefer Coons 0% GOP voting record to Castle's 55%?

Because he'd much rather have Democrats control the Senate at 50/50 than Republicans control it at 51/49. He's a bit of a Biden fan, you see.

[tpfkaw]

Since you are so concerned about Republicans controlling the Senate, who do you support for the general election?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Why would you prefer Coons 0% GOP voting record to Castle's 55%?

because it turns the other RINOs into legitimate elephants for fear that they too will be tepeed.

[Mr. Morden]

RPC?  Why is Rainbow Power Company predicting Senate races?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

RPC?  Why is Rainbow Power Company predicting Senate races?

sorry, I'm used to speaking computer lingo

[J. J.]

At least Castle was defeated. We will have someone who sides with Obama 95% of the time ideas of 25% of the time!

Actually Castle has a 55% GOP voting record and an F rating with the NRA. Being that I'm only probably one of perhaps three conservatives on this forum, I support O'Donnell, proudly.

I'd prefer a cohesive Republican majority in the Senate.

That's not right, but I'll humor you and say it is.   Why would you prefer Coons 0% GOP voting record to Castle's 55%?