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Author Topic: PA-13: POS(R): Keep both hands on the keyboard, Phil, but ...  (Read 847 times)
Former Moderate
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« on: October 08, 2010, 02:47:30 pm »
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Yes, it's an internal.

Schwartz (D-inc.) 44%
Adcock (R) 42%

(300 LV; MOE +/- 5.66%)

Huntingdon Valley, PA, October 7, 2010—In a poll conducted by Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies, it was revealed that the PA 13th Congressional Seat held by incumbent Democrat Rep. Allyson Schwartz is not “Safe” as many have predicted. In a summary memo, Neil Newhouse said, “Forget the Democrat registration edge here, voters in this district are leaning toward the GOP candidate in the November election by a 44%-42% margin, with even 27% of Democrats supporting a ‘checks-and-balances’ Republican. Voters here are clearly looking for a change.”

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/249194/let-friday-afternoon-news-dump-commence
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2010, 02:54:20 pm »
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Not one on my list at all.  I'd expect bad polling.
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2010, 02:56:06 pm »
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It's a POS poll...

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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2010, 03:01:00 pm »
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     Probably Schwartz is up by ~10% & they released this to make their fundraising pitch. The most important axiom one can follow in regards to public polling is to never take internals at face value.
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2010, 03:04:07 pm »
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Crazy things happen during a wave, my friends.  Wink
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2010, 03:24:46 pm »
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It was just two or three weeks ago that I said in response to Flyers that it would take a GOP gain of 132+ for this seat to be competative.
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2010, 03:26:58 pm »
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I wonder if this race would have been a probable Republican pickup had Schwartz run for governor or Senate this year.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2010, 03:30:23 pm »
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I wonder if this race would have been a probable Republican pickup had Schwartz run for governor or Senate this year.

Schwartz wouldn't run for Governor. It was her plan to run for the Senate, though, before Specter switched.

This seat is difficult but the main reason why Schwartz is able to hang on is because she has a ton of cash and personally popular. Without her as the nominee, the GOP would certainly have a better shot at winning.

One thing is for certain with this race: Schwartz won't be breaking 60% this year.  Smiley
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2010, 03:31:27 pm »
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... and it's staler than stale, taken before Labor Day:

The survey was conducted August 31-September 1, 2010 among 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2010, 03:48:47 pm »
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I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2010, 03:59:48 pm »
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I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2010, 04:20:08 pm »
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I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting? Tongue
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2010, 04:24:12 pm »
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I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting? Tongue

I'll even give it to Phil a little with the fact that the district's not as liberal as the national party seems to think.  Mind you, it would take a lot for the GOP to win, but there's far more "Archie Bunkers" and "Francis' from Family Guy" type people here than in Nancy Pelosi's district I can assure you.
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2010, 05:19:26 pm »
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I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting? Tongue

Are you expecting 1% for a write in? There aren't any third party candidates this year.  Wink
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2010, 05:21:47 pm »
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I don't think I can trust any pollster that has the name "POS". Tongue

In all seriousness, how competitive is this race?  What about PA-03 and PA-10?
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2010, 05:38:34 pm »
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MMM. More garbage polling plz!
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What are you talking about Duke?  Things are great so far.   I do have to cling to God no matter what.  I have nothing against this at all,  but in my class there are 9 blacks and 4 whites.  African Americans are quite prevalent in that part of Tulsa.  I don't mind it at all,  but it is an interesting fact in white Oklahoma.
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2010, 05:46:05 pm »
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I don't think I can trust any pollster that has the name "POS". Tongue

Yeah, I never understood how they could stick with that name given the acronym.

Quote
In all seriousness, how competitive is this race?  What about PA-03 and PA-10?

This could be one of the surprises. PA 3 is basically finished and PA 10 is still competitive and very close.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2010, 06:57:38 pm by Keystone Phil »Logged

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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2010, 05:57:57 pm »
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I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting? Tongue

Are you expecting 1% for a write in? There aren't any third party candidates this year.  Wink

Not 1%.

56.49%
43.49%

Means .02% left for statisical noise and a few write-ins.

However it is considered a sign of questionability to include decimal points. Tongue

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