Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2014, 01:31:14 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2010 Elections
| | |-+  2010 House Election Polls (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | | |-+  PA-13: POS(R): Keep both hands on the keyboard, Phil, but ...
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: PA-13: POS(R): Keep both hands on the keyboard, Phil, but ...  (Read 839 times)
Former Moderate
Mr. Moderate
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12919
United States


View Profile WWW
« on: October 08, 2010, 02:47:30 pm »
Ignore

Yes, it's an internal.

Schwartz (D-inc.) 44%
Adcock (R) 42%

(300 LV; MOE +/- 5.66%)

Huntingdon Valley, PA, October 7, 2010—In a poll conducted by Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies, it was revealed that the PA 13th Congressional Seat held by incumbent Democrat Rep. Allyson Schwartz is not “Safe” as many have predicted. In a summary memo, Neil Newhouse said, “Forget the Democrat registration edge here, voters in this district are leaning toward the GOP candidate in the November election by a 44%-42% margin, with even 27% of Democrats supporting a ‘checks-and-balances’ Republican. Voters here are clearly looking for a change.”

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/249194/let-friday-afternoon-news-dump-commence
Logged

J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31972
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2010, 02:54:20 pm »
Ignore

Not one on my list at all.  I'd expect bad polling.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3445
Mexico


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2010, 02:56:06 pm »
Ignore

It's a POS poll...

Logged



Economic score: -6.26
Social score: -7.74
IDS Attorney General PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22342
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2010, 03:01:00 pm »
Ignore

     Probably Schwartz is up by ~10% & they released this to make their fundraising pitch. The most important axiom one can follow in regards to public polling is to never take internals at face value.
Logged

Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51138


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2010, 03:04:07 pm »
Ignore

Crazy things happen during a wave, my friends.  Wink
Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27286
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2010, 03:24:46 pm »
Ignore

It was just two or three weeks ago that I said in response to Flyers that it would take a GOP gain of 132+ for this seat to be competative.
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2010, 03:26:58 pm »
Ignore

I wonder if this race would have been a probable Republican pickup had Schwartz run for governor or Senate this year.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51138


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2010, 03:30:23 pm »
Ignore

I wonder if this race would have been a probable Republican pickup had Schwartz run for governor or Senate this year.

Schwartz wouldn't run for Governor. It was her plan to run for the Senate, though, before Specter switched.

This seat is difficult but the main reason why Schwartz is able to hang on is because she has a ton of cash and personally popular. Without her as the nominee, the GOP would certainly have a better shot at winning.

One thing is for certain with this race: Schwartz won't be breaking 60% this year.  Smiley
Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7718


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2010, 03:31:27 pm »
Ignore

... and it's staler than stale, taken before Labor Day:

The survey was conducted August 31-September 1, 2010 among 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.
Logged
RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel
Flyers2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10527


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.87

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2010, 03:48:47 pm »
Ignore

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%
Logged


DOUCHEBAGGERY AT ITS FINEST!
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51138


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2010, 03:59:48 pm »
Ignore

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue
Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27286
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2010, 04:20:08 pm »
Ignore

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting? Tongue
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel
Flyers2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10527


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.87

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2010, 04:24:12 pm »
Ignore

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting? Tongue

I'll even give it to Phil a little with the fact that the district's not as liberal as the national party seems to think.  Mind you, it would take a lot for the GOP to win, but there's far more "Archie Bunkers" and "Francis' from Family Guy" type people here than in Nancy Pelosi's district I can assure you.
Logged


DOUCHEBAGGERY AT ITS FINEST!
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51138


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2010, 05:19:26 pm »
Ignore

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting? Tongue

Are you expecting 1% for a write in? There aren't any third party candidates this year.  Wink
Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4822
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: -7.65

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2010, 05:21:47 pm »
Ignore

I don't think I can trust any pollster that has the name "POS". Tongue

In all seriousness, how competitive is this race?  What about PA-03 and PA-10?
Logged

Born and raised in California
(Jewish) Atheist
Classical Liberal
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37899
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2010, 05:38:34 pm »
Ignore

MMM. More garbage polling plz!
Logged

truth serum
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51138


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2010, 05:46:05 pm »
Ignore

I don't think I can trust any pollster that has the name "POS". Tongue

Yeah, I never understood how they could stick with that name given the acronym.

Quote
In all seriousness, how competitive is this race?  What about PA-03 and PA-10?

This could be one of the surprises. PA 3 is basically finished and PA 10 is still competitive and very close.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2010, 06:57:38 pm by Keystone Phil »Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27286
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2010, 05:57:57 pm »
Ignore

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer.  Tongue

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting? Tongue

Are you expecting 1% for a write in? There aren't any third party candidates this year.  Wink

Not 1%.

56.49%
43.49%

Means .02% left for statisical noise and a few write-ins.

However it is considered a sign of questionability to include decimal points. Tongue

Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines