PA-13: POS(R): Keep both hands on the keyboard, Phil, but ...

[Former Moderate]

Yes, it's an internal.

Schwartz (D-inc.) 44%
Adcock (R) 42%

(300 LV; MOE +/- 5.66%)

Huntingdon Valley, PA, October 7, 2010—In a poll conducted by Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies, it was revealed that the PA 13th Congressional Seat held by incumbent Democrat Rep. Allyson Schwartz is not “Safe” as many have predicted. In a summary memo, Neil Newhouse said, “Forget the Democrat registration edge here, voters in this district are leaning toward the GOP candidate in the November election by a 44%-42% margin, with even 27% of Democrats supporting a ‘checks-and-balances’ Republican. Voters here are clearly looking for a change.”

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/249194/let-friday-afternoon-news-dump-commence

[J. J.]

Not one on my list at all.  I'd expect bad polling.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's a POS poll...

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Probably Schwartz is up by ~10% & they released this to make their fundraising pitch. The most important axiom one can follow in regards to public polling is to never take internals at face value.

[Keystone Phil]

Crazy things happen during a wave, my friends. 

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It was just two or three weeks ago that I said in response to Flyers that it would take a GOP gain of 132+ for this seat to be competative.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if this race would have been a probable Republican pickup had Schwartz run for governor or Senate this year.

[Keystone Phil]

I wonder if this race would have been a probable Republican pickup had Schwartz run for governor or Senate this year.

Schwartz wouldn't run for Governor. It was her plan to run for the Senate, though, before Specter switched.

This seat is difficult but the main reason why Schwartz is able to hang on is because she has a ton of cash and personally popular. Without her as the nominee, the GOP would certainly have a better shot at winning.

One thing is for certain with this race: Schwartz won't be breaking 60% this year. 

[cinyc]

... and it's staler than stale, taken before Labor Day:

The survey was conducted August 31-September 1, 2010 among 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

[Keystone Phil]

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer. 

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer. 

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting?

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer. 

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting?

I'll even give it to Phil a little with the fact that the district's not as liberal as the national party seems to think.  Mind you, it would take a lot for the GOP to win, but there's far more "Archie Bunkers" and "Francis' from Family Guy" type people here than in Nancy Pelosi's district I can assure you.

[Keystone Phil]

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer. 

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting?

Are you expecting 1% for a write in? There aren't any third party candidates this year. 

[Ronnie]

I don't think I can trust any pollster that has the name "POS".

In all seriousness, how competitive is this race?  What about PA-03 and PA-10?

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

MMM. More garbage polling plz!

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think I can trust any pollster that has the name "POS".

Yeah, I never understood how they could stick with that name given the acronym.

In all seriousness, how competitive is this race?  What about PA-03 and PA-10?

This could be one of the surprises. PA 3 is basically finished and PA 10 is still competitive and very close.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I put this as on the outside of "Watch List" and I'm sticking to it.  I'm calling:

Schwartz (D): 58%
Adcock (R): 42%

Much closer. 

For the record, I agree.

Schwartz (D): 56%
Adcock (R): 43%

Not what you were expecting?

Are you expecting 1% for a write in? There aren't any third party candidates this year. 

Not 1%.

56.49%
43.49%

Means .02% left for statisical noise and a few write-ins.

However it is considered a sign of questionability to include decimal points.