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Author Topic: Victorian State Election 27/11/2010  (Read 6714 times)
Platypus
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« on: October 09, 2010, 09:54:08 am »
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Smid is the expert, but he also has a role with a state MLC so I'm not sure how much posting he can do on the topic, so I;'ll get us started.

Labor will win, but maybe will need the support of the Greens who could win 1-3 seats in the inner city of Melbourne. Liberals will probably gain a few seats and should eject Labor from the upper house majority, but would be hugely fortunate to take the majority themselves. Roughly as fortunate as a Conservative majority government in Canada.

Anyway, campaign proper starts in a couple of weeks for an election on November 27 but the first bits and pieces are flowing.

Brumby: We'll build a new children's hospital in the Outer East of Melbourne, where a lot of swing seats are at the center of Melbourne's population!

Baillieu: Yeah, we'll do that too.

--------

Baillieu: So, how about that myki, huh?

Brumby: Myki is for the future. Problems, yes, but it's good to go now! Yay! And guess what? The Monash Freeway upgrade is ready to open fully just before the election!

--------

Ombudsman: The youth detention center at Parkville sucks.

Department of Human Services: We know, thats why we've recommended increased funding for it for ages

Minister: It's the yuuvs fault!

Baillieu: The minister can't blame this on the yuuvs! It's governmental ineptitude!

Yuuvs: *lighting a cig from a live electrical cable* Yeah, It's not my fault I caused thousands of dollars of damage to the common area!

Brumby: Now, now, it's still the best in Australia. Even if it does suck.

ACT: Eh, no, ours is better

NSW: Yeah, cos it was half funded with our money but now you won't let us put our yuuvs in there

ACT:
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2010, 02:59:04 pm »
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Ombudsman: The youth detention center at Parkville sucks.

Department of Human Services: We know, thats why we've recommended increased funding for it for ages

Minister: It's the yuuvs fault!

Baillieu: The minister can't blame this on the yuuvs! It's governmental ineptitude!

Yuuvs: *lighting a cig from a live electrical cable* Yeah, It's not my fault I caused thousands of dollars of damage to the common area!

Brumby: Now, now, it's still the best in Australia. Even if it does suck.

ACT: Eh, no, ours is better

NSW: Yeah, cos it was half funded with our money but now you won't let us put our yuuvs in there
lolz.
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2010, 10:42:59 pm »
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Yeah, came on to create this thread. As Hugh mentions, I won't be commenting. Or I could comment, but you'd be getting Liberal spin in every post, and I don't think anyone wants spin/hackery on here, so I don't think I'll post anything other than possibly the occasional link to news stories.

Anyone who is interested, there's a blank map in the gallery that's simple to shade in paint - feel free to use it for predictions or results. I'm pretty sure I have uploaded some maps of the last election, too. If you're lucky, I may upload a 2002 map, and possibly even a notional 1999 map (redistribution was in 2000, Adam Carr has notional results hidden somewhere on his website, though).
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2010, 11:18:15 pm »
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The one other thing I was going to add, but forgot to, was the Galaxy poll from the other day. I think I saw it mentioned on Friday, but yesterday there were more news stories about it, including some issues polling that came out of it.

I went looking for the actual poll online, but couldn't find it, so I can't provide a link.

Firstly, Primary Votes:
Liberal - 39%
National - 4%
          (Coalition - 43%)
Labor - 38%
Greens - 14%
(Others therefore must be 5%).

This gives a 2PP of (note that pollsters apportion preferences the same as at the previous election, rather than asking people during the poll who they'd support):
Labor - 51%
Coaltion - 49%

The Greens polling could potentially deliver them four seats (Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote), according to The Age. The article has some clumsy wording, combining federal election results and polling figures (federal results - Greens win Melbourne and Richmond, Galaxy poll & uniform swing - Greens win all four).

In terms of Approval, the Premier has 48% satisfied, 46% dissatisfied and the Opposition Leader has 41% satisfied and 44% dissatisfied.

With other leadership ratings, according to The Herald Sun:

Baillieu in touch with hardships of everyday life - 30% Agree
Brumby Stronger Leader and understands the needs of working Victorians - 50% Agree
Brumby and Trust - 38% Trust the Premier
Baillieu has a vision for Victoria - 34% Disagree
Brumby is arrogant - 38% Agree
Baillieu is arrogant - 36% Agree

(Unfortunately that's all straight out of the article, I can't find the original figures and therefore can't compare agree and disagree, nor compare the Premier and Opposition Leader on the same questions).

On the question of:

Quote
If Labor wins the state election in November, do you believe this will be because they deserve to be re-elected or because they are better than the alternative?

The response was:
Deserve to be re-elected - 18%
Better than the alternative - 62%
Uncommitted - 20%

And finally, regarding issues:

Quote
Which of the two parties, the Brumby-led ALP or the Baillieu-led Liberal Party, do you think would be best able to manage each of the following?

Roads - 47% ALP, 42% Liberal, 11% Uncommitted
Water - 46% ALP, 43% Liberal, 11% Uncommitted
Public Transport - 39% ALP, 48% Liberal, 13% Uncommitted
Health - 49% ALP, 41% Liberal, 10% Uncommitted
Education - 56% ALP, 36% Liberal, 8% Uncommitted
Law and Order - 42% ALP, 47% Liberal, 11% Uncommitted
« Last Edit: October 11, 2010, 11:35:44 pm by Smid »Logged
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2010, 12:37:00 am »
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Alright, rather than just sending you to the gallery, here are links (and a few images) of election results in Victoria:

Blank Map
Upper House Regions (Multi-Member Electorates, based on 11 Lower House Electorates)

The current numbers in the Upper House (Legislative Council) are:

19 ALP
1 DLP
3 Greens
2 Nationals
15 Liberals
(ie, 19 Labor, 17 Coalition, with the Greens and DLP holding the balance of power).

Eastern Metro Region - 3 Liberals, 2 Labor
Eastern Victoria Region - 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 National
Northern Metro Region - 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green
Northern Victoria Region - 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 National
Southern Metro Region - 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Southeastern Metro Region - 3 Labor, 2 Liberals
Western Metro Region - 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens
Western Victoria Region - 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 DLP

Upper House Margin by electorate
The Upper House is PR-STV, and this map shows the winning party's primary vote, minus the second party's primary vote. I should get around to doing one just of winning party's primary vote. The VEC doesn't release figures for the Upper House by Lower House electorate, although it does provide the results in each booth for both the Upper and Lower House. I've compiled Lower House electorates using the booth results, which is where that map comes from. The Nationals are shaded Green because their party logo is yellow writing on a dark green background (so I've always thought of them as a dark green colour - and I think pre-Greens, that may have been their colour on election night graphs), but if I re-do the map, I think I'll shade them purple.

Upper House Primary Vote for the Liberal Party (note, some rural areas appear weak for the Liberals, however these are very conservative National Party seats, and not competitive for the Labor Party).

Upper House Primary Vote for Labor

Upper House Primary Vote for The Greens

And finally, Two Candidate Preferred in the Legislative Assembly:


The four inner city seats (Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote) are ALP vs Greens, two seats (Rodney and Shepparton) are Nationals vs Liberals, one seat (Gippsland East) is Indpendent vs Liberal, and one seat (Mildura) is Nationals vs Independent.
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2010, 02:46:16 pm »
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I've never objected to partisan hack/spinster posts as long as they were clearly marked as such (whether in the post or in my opinion of the poster - though in the latter case I might try to make the poster understand what they are).
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2010, 07:16:37 am »
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Here's the pendulum:

The Government holds these seats (figures are from last General Election, and represent 2PP margin, ie, 0.31 = 50.31% 2PP):

0.31   Mount Waverley
0.72   Gembrook
0.77   Forest Hill
1.97   Mitcham
2.01   Melbourne (vs Greens)
2.28   South Barwon
3.22   Frankston
3.55   Prahran
3.62   Mordialloc
3.64   Richmond (vs Greens)
3.65   Brunswick (vs Greens) - Loss of Government Majority
3.74   Burwood
4.35   Ripon
5.35   Bendigo East
6.32   Bentleigh
6.48   Eltham
6.53   Monbulk
6.55   Ballarat West
6.71   Carrum
6.81   Ballarat East
6.82   Seymore
7.95   Bellarine
7.99   Yan Yean
8.17   Macedon
8.33   Geelong
8.51   Northcote (vs Greens)
9.22   Albert Park*
9.23   Narre Warren North
10.43  Ivanhoe
10.56  Bendigo West
10.94  Narre Warren South
11.22  Niddrie
11.29  Cranbourne
11.70  Essendon
12.37  Oakleigh 
12.47  Tarneit
13.54  Melton
15.12  Bundoora
15.77  Mulgrave
17.93  Lara
18.67  Dandenong
19.41  Keilor
20.19  Yuroke
20.21  Altona*
20.27  Clayton
20.79  Mill Park
21.78  Lyndhurst
22.77  Pascoe Vale
24.25  Williamstown*
24.31  Derrimut
24.67  Footscray
25.29  Preston
25.27  Kororoit*
31.07  Thomastown
31.89  Broadmeadows

* means a by-election has subsequently been held in this electorate.

The Opposition holds these seats:

0.04   Ferntree Gully
0.35   Kilsyth
0.99   Hastings
2.12   Morwell (Nationals)
2.65   Narracan
2.78   Evelyn
2.89   Bayswater
4.01   Southwest Coast
5.22   Box Hill
5.22   Bass
6.08   Mildura (Nationals - vs Independent)
7.63   Caulfield
7.71   Benambra
8.12   Benambra
8.43   Bulleen
8.68   Sandringham
8.99   Warrandyte
9.38   Nepean
9.56   Kew
10.69  Polworth
10.93  Brighton
11.17  Scoresby
11.32  Malvern
11.85  Mornington
12.26  Hawthorn
15.81  Gippsland South (Nationals)
17.51  Benalla (Nationals)
21.76  Murray Valley (Nationals)
22.08  Lowan (Nationals)
23.40  Swan Hill (Nationals)
4.20  Rodney (Nationals vs Liberals)
16.67  Shepparton (Nationals vs Liberals)

Gippsland East is held by an independent 9.1% vs Liberals.

The four seats held Labor vs Greens are obviously higher when considered Labor vs Liberal, likewise, the two seats held National vs Liberal are safer if considered Nationals vs Labor. The Independent has a stronger win when rated as 2PP vs Nationals and an even stronger win when it's vs Labor.
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2010, 07:31:27 am »
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And here are some historic maps for the 2002 and 1999 elections. There was a redistribution finalised in 2001 and the 1999 results are based on the notional figures calculated on the new (current) boundaries. One map for 1999 includes the by-elections held in Burwood and Benalla, while the other one does not. Both by-elections were won by Labor.

2002:


1999 (without by-elections):


1999 (with by-elections):


Same warning again that Green is for the National Party, not the Greens (I really should get around to fixing that sometime). I'm also pleased to note that I have included in the Key the link to the source data for the notional results).
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2010, 09:07:36 pm »
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As always, Antony Green's Website is the be all and end all of electoral information for this election.

EDIT: The Tally Room webiste is also exceptional. Definitely check both out.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2010, 08:38:01 pm by Smid »Logged
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2010, 08:37:10 pm »
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The Coalition released an ad last night. It's up on YouTube on the party's official channel thing, so no doubt other ads will pop up there, too, when they're released. Anyway, if anyone's interested, I'll post it here (and also in the election ads thread, wherever that's gone).

http://www.youtube.com/user/LiberalVictoria
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2010, 03:15:43 am »
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The Coalition released an ad last night. It's up on YouTube on the party's official channel thing, so no doubt other ads will pop up there, too, when they're released. Anyway, if anyone's interested, I'll post it here (and also in the election ads thread, wherever that's gone).

http://www.youtube.com/user/LiberalVictoria
LOL!!!! That is one of the most pathetic election ad's I've ever seen.
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2010, 08:11:00 am »
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Liberals: Oh noes Brumby used your money to make ads saying we have good trains instead of building schools or sumthing

Labor: E:

Liberals: He could even have paid more nurses more money, like we did in the nin...never mind

Labor: E:

---------------

Labor: Hey great idea let's have a new police station in the outer east! Again! As every party promises at every election!

---------------

Liberals: We're going to save the W-class trams!

Motorists: Oh cool they're heritage and stuff

Public transport users: Sure, but while you're at it, want to make them tolerable to ride in?

Liberals: Sure we'll fit them out with airco! The windows won't open any more and the only charm they ever had for actual passengers will be lost, but they look good to the people in the cars driving past them when they're broken down on St. Kilda Road!

---------------

Labor: You might theink we're a bit old in the tooth and boring, but what about THIS BRAND NEW STUDIO FOR CHANNEL NINE!

Channel Nine: Now we can stop pretending we were going to shift production of the Eddie Maguire TV shows from Melbourne to Adelaide or Sydney!

Liberals: Hey wait so doesn't that mean that Studio City at Docklands won't be used for films any more?

Labor: yeah but other than Ghost Rider what else has been filmed there anyway?

Greens: Australian Films! Now they'll have no studio in the Docklands!

Liberals: Yeah but nobody goes to Australian movies anyway

Labor: Yeah and nobody goes to the Docklands either. Well town-planned, Liberals.

Liberals: E:
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2010, 09:00:08 am »
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The Coalition released an ad last night. It's up on YouTube on the party's official channel thing, so no doubt other ads will pop up there, too, when they're released. Anyway, if anyone's interested, I'll post it here (and also in the election ads thread, wherever that's gone).

http://www.youtube.com/user/LiberalVictoria
LOL!!!! That is one of the most pathetic election ad's I've ever seen.

How about the follow-up? Personally, I think it's worse but I can understand a different view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJRoIEeoNxQ
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2010, 12:42:23 am »
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The Coalition released an ad last night. It's up on YouTube on the party's official channel thing, so no doubt other ads will pop up there, too, when they're released. Anyway, if anyone's interested, I'll post it here (and also in the election ads thread, wherever that's gone).

http://www.youtube.com/user/LiberalVictoria
LOL!!!! That is one of the most pathetic election ad's I've ever seen.

How about the follow-up? Personally, I think it's worse but I can understand a different view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJRoIEeoNxQ

Didn't watch it here, but I suspect it's the Little Girl one that showed up in my inbox the other day. I rather liked it - it emphasises the problems the current government has failed to address, points out that they've done nothing and that there's the ability to change things... They remind me of the "Re-Pete" ads they ran up in Queensland a few elections back, which didn't win us the election, but certainly took the shine off the government, leading to a decline in their polls following the election. I don't have them on YouTube, but I do have that series on my computer in mp3 format, or wmv format, or whatever format they're in. The versions of those ads I have aren't the original version that were run on the tv (they don't have the authorised by at the end, and finish by saying something about "Beattie Bulls***). I'll have to show them to you sometime.

We should catch up for coffee again sometime.
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2010, 04:03:37 am »
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Liberals: We're going to save the W-class trams!

Motorists: Oh cool they're heritage and stuff

Public transport users: Sure, but while you're at it, want to make them tolerable to ride in?

Liberals: Sure we'll fit them out with airco! The windows won't open any more and the only charm they ever had for actual passengers will be lost, but they look good to the people in the cars driving past them when they're broken down on St. Kilda Road!
Death to airconditioned public transport.
Quote
Liberals: Yeah but nobody goes to Australian movies anyway
I did see this one... Grin
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2010, 11:41:02 pm »
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The Age published a Nielsen poll, the poll was taken on Wednesday and Thursday. The main figures were published on Saturday, but the link is for an article from today, which I've copied here for you:

Quote from: Paul Austin, The Age
Crime, transport, water the issues

FEAR of violent crime, frustration with the public transport system and concern about the government's multibillion-dollar water projects loom as dangerous issues for the Brumby government in this month's state election.

An Age/Nielsen poll taken on the eve of the campaign shows 39 per cent of voters feel less safe now than they did when John Brumby became Premier three years ago - and only 6 per cent feel safer.

Thirty per cent think the public transport system has deteriorated under Mr Brumby, while only 18 per cent believe his much-hyped transport policies have made things better on the trains, trams and buses in the past three years.

Advertisement: Story continues below And the government's contentious solution to Melbourne's water crisis - a $5.7 billion desalination plant near Wonthaggi and a pipeline to take water from the north of the state to the city - has received the thumbs-down from voters.

Thirty-one per cent say they are less likely to vote for Labor because of its water policies, whereas only 19 per cent say the big water projects have made them more likely to back the government at the November 27 election.

But the poll has one finding that will hearten Mr Brumby as he seeks to win a historic fourth term for Labor: 61 per cent of voters think Victoria is generally heading in the right direction, and only 34 per cent think it's going the wrong way.

The poll will reinforce the view among strategists in both camps that although there is no overwhelming mood for a change of government, Labor is vulnerable in a range of key policy areas.

Mr Brumby effectively acknowledged this at the weekend when he said the government had ''a good story to tell'' overall, but that its performance on public transport was only ''average''.

''I think Victorians generally believe that our state is headed in the right direction,'' he said yesterday, before adding: ''That is not to say that everybody agrees with everything we've done or that everything's perfect.''

Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu has moved to exploit Labor's weaknesses, with new election advertisements on prime-time TV last night pushing Coalition plans to crack down on street crime and make public transport safer and more reliable.

In other developments:

■ Both major parties revealed their slogans: Labor's is ''For the times ahead'', the Coalition's ''Fix the problems. Build the future.''

■ Mr Brumby pledged to cut payroll tax by $203 million over four years to ''help secure more jobs and drive economic growth''.

■ Mr Baillieu promised to set up satellite offices of the Premier's Department in five regional cities if he wins, to ''take government back to the people''.

■ Greens leader Bob Brown hit back at the Catholic Church for suggesting voters shun the minor party because of its pro-euthanasia stance.

As The Age reported on Saturday, the Nielsen telephone poll of 1000 voters, taken last Wednesday and Thursday, found Labor starts the campaign with a strong lead over the Coalition: 53 per cent to 47 per cent after distribution of preferences.

But it also found the Greens' primary vote at a historically high 16 per cent across the state and 18 per cent in metropolitan Melbourne.

This suggests Labor will lose seats to the Coalition and the Greens, and Victoria could end up with a hung parliament.

The poll found younger voters are much more likely to think Victoria is heading in the right direction (77 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds) than older people (48 per cent of people aged 55 and over).

Accompanying the article was a table:

Quote
Is Victoria heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right direction - 61%
Wrong direction - 34%
Don't know - 5%

Do the state government's major water projects such as the desalination plant and north-south pipeline make it more likely you will vote for the government, less likely, or do they make no difference?
More likely - 19%
Less likely - 31%
No difference - 49%
Don't know - 1%

Do you think public transport is better than it was three years ago, worse, or about the same?
Better - 18%
Worse - 30%
Same - 41%
Don't know - 11%

Moving on to crime and public safety, do you feel safer than you did three years ago, less safe, or about the same as three years ago?
Safer - 6%
Less safe - 39%
Same - 54%
Don't know - <0.5%
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« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2010, 12:58:43 am »
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There's nothing terribly bad in those internals for the ALP.

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« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2010, 05:24:32 pm »
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Hmmm Libs preferencing Greens last in EVERY LA seat...
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« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2010, 09:02:11 pm »
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A recent Newspoll has the 2PP as 51-49 to Labor (changed from 52-48 in the previous Newspoll). Two ACNielson polls released over the same time frame shows 52-48 to Labor (changed from 51-49). The Newspoll broke down to the following primary vote:

Liberal - 39%
Nationals - 5%
     (Coalition - 44%)
Labor - 37%
Greens - 14% (as a side note, this figure is down from 19%)
Others - 5%

A link I found in a news article showed some issues polling and personality polling for the leaders and parties, which seems to be from the same Newspoll (but with additional comparison to previous polls taken just before other elections).

Here's a news story from today's Herald Sun. I don't know how accurate it is - it's always interesting to hear government MPs talking down their chances, especially when polls consistently have them leading. In Australia, people certainly like to support the under-dog, which can lead to some quite ludicrous claims at times (such as Queensland Premier Peter Beattie claiming to be the under-dog when polls had him sitting at 54% and he ended up winning 2/3rds of the seats in Parliament). Some of this may be to try to limit a protest vote against the government, although some of it may be accurate. I'm sure you can all make your own minds up.

I also heard the other day that a Morgan Poll had the Greens winning the four inner-city seats. I was of the impression his methodology involved monkies and dart boards, but according to this it was a sample of 276 voters across the four electorates... of course, that means he probably only interviewed about 70 people in each electorate...
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« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2010, 09:17:24 pm »
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A recent Newspoll has the 2PP as 51-49 to Labor (changed from 52-48 in the previous Newspoll). Two ACNielson polls released over the same time frame shows 52-48 to Labor (changed from 51-49). The Newspoll broke down to the following primary vote:

Liberal - 39%
Nationals - 5%
     (Coalition - 44%)
Labor - 37%
Greens - 14% (as a side note, this figure is down from 19%)
Others - 5%

A link I found in a news article showed some issues polling and personality polling for the leaders and parties, which seems to be from the same Newspoll (but with additional comparison to previous polls taken just before other elections).

Here's a news story from today's Herald Sun. I don't know how accurate it is - it's always interesting to hear government MPs talking down their chances, especially when polls consistently have them leading. In Australia, people certainly like to support the under-dog, which can lead to some quite ludicrous claims at times (such as Queensland Premier Peter Beattie claiming to be the under-dog when polls had him sitting at 54% and he ended up winning 2/3rds of the seats in Parliament). Some of this may be to try to limit a protest vote against the government, although some of it may be accurate. I'm sure you can all make your own minds up.

I also heard the other day that a Morgan Poll had the Greens winning the four inner-city seats. I was of the impression his methodology involved monkies and dart boards, but according to this it was a sample of 276 voters across the four electorates... of course, that means he probably only interviewed about 70 people in each electorate...

Morgan Polls are notorious for being completely off the mark.
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« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2010, 10:15:42 pm »
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http://alpvictoria.com.au/labortv/

The ALP have one of the best online presences I've come across in any election. It gets that 80% of the people who actually watch videos on its website will be the party faithful, so it reinforces policy announcements but focusses on reminding people of the basic Labor ethos, and the 'good character' of the party's politicians. It's funny enough but serious enough.

Of the other 20%, 15% will have already made up their mind to vote for the Liberals and 5% just like Corinne Grant.
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« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2010, 11:45:28 pm »
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http://alpvictoria.com.au/labortv/

The ALP have one of the best online presences I've come across in any election. It gets that 80% of the people who actually watch videos on its website will be the party faithful, so it reinforces policy announcements but focusses on reminding people of the basic Labor ethos, and the 'good character' of the party's politicians. It's funny enough but serious enough.

Of the other 20%, 15% will have already made up their mind to vote for the Liberals and 5% just like Corinne Grant.


...and how could you not?!
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2010, 04:12:20 am »
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Am I the only on who is reminded of Bush's infamous Horton ad with the Libs latest plug? Perhaps if Baillieu were running a conistent campaign, it could have been more effective. Then again ALP is just as bad. You know it's bad when they're resorting to recycled advertisements from 2006.
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« Reply #23 on: November 23, 2010, 12:50:59 am »
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A new poll just out in the Herald Sun seems fairly extensive - 9,218 people were polled, and in the seats that were polled, between 222 and 580 people were polled.

Quote
ALP face losses but will could form government in its own right, according to JWS Research poll

LABOR faces defeat in at least seven seats, with another three too close to call, according to the first-seat-by-seat poll published this election.

According to the poll, the Liberals are on track to win Mount Waverley, Forest Hill, Mitcham, South Barwon, Mordialloc and Burwood, while the Greens are likely to gain Brunswick.

The poll was conducted between Saturday and Monday night by pollster JWS Research.

It found the seats of Melbourne and Richmond could also fall to Greens but are too close to call, while Prahran is line-ball between the ALP and the Liberals.

In addition to the six Liberal gains, the poll shows the Nationals are likely to pick up the seat of Gippsland East from Independent MP Craig Ingram.

But while the ALP is behind in its most marginal seats, the poll suggests the Liberals have so far failed to make enough inroads in some of the seats they need to win to take government.

According to the poll, Labor will hold Gembrook, Frankston, Ripon, Bendigo East, Bentleigh, Ballarat West and Ballarat East.

Four of the ALP seats polled - Gembrook and Frankston, Bentleigh and Ballarat West - are showing small swings to the incumbents.

The six Liberal seats also polled - Ferntree Gully, Kilsyth, Hastings, Narracan, Bayswater and Box Hill - each showed a movement to the incumbents though the swing varied.

"If these results hold up at Saturdays election, it may still allow Labor to form majority Government and for John Brumby to be elected in his own right as Premier,'' JWS Research managing director John Scales said.

"But on this polling Labor's lead has been reduced to such a small number of seats that Ted Baillieu and the Liberals could yet snatch an unlikely victory or the Greens could once again be the king makers.''

In Ferntree Gully, Liberal MP Nick Wakeling is 13. 8 per cent ahead of where he was four years ago, while Bayswater and Kilsyth have only moved towards the party by 3.1 per cent.

The biggest swings to the Liberals in Labor seats are in Mordialloc (12 per cent), Burwood (10 per cent) and South Barwon (8 per cent).

Labor is behind in Melbourne 49-51 per cent and ahead in Richmond by the same margin, making the results too close to call.

Prahran is a dead-heat at 50-50.

Several seats considered by both sides to be to in play - including, Bellarine, Geelong, Narre Warren North and Carrum - were not included in the survey.

John Brumby (36 per cent) is slightly ahead of Ted Baillieu (32 per cent) in the preferred Premier stakes, with 16 per cent saying they prefer neither and a further 16 per cent undecided.

Nearly half (46 per cent) of voters expect John Brumby and Labor to win the election on Saturday and only 25 per cent expect Ted Baillieu and the Liberal Nationals to win, while 21 per cent think it is too close to call and 8 per cent are undecided.

The poll - carried out between Saturday and Monday - sampled 9218 voters using automated telephone technology.

The sample size in each seat ranged between 222 and 580 voters.
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« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2010, 06:13:40 am »
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I'm honestly stunned... I was not expecting this... this isn't by any real estimation a 'bad' government, the "11 years factor" clearly was at work.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/27/3078370.htm
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