AK: Magellan Strategies: Murkowski leads Miller by 2

[Tender Branson]

No real figures, because it was done for a private client, but they twittered the margin:

http://twitter.com/IanLazaran/status/25936328596

http://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/26201958360

http://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/26115271673

[minionofmidas]

Lol. Awesome. So is McAdams becoming Schlesinger 2.0 - because imho that's what it would take for Murkowski to win?

[You kip if you want to...]

Murkowski won't win. If her name was actually printed on the ballot, then she probably would, but it's obviously not going to be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I thought murkowski would win, hopefully she does.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Who are they "working for" in AK? They are a GOP pollster, but I thought at one point Murkowski was doing business with them.


It doesn't really matter actually. She is overpolling based on the simple fact that she is a write-in and second of all, I think all of the polls underpoll Republicans in Alaska.

[The Vorlon]

how the %$%#@ do you poll a write in candidate?

"un-aided ballot"...., maybe kinda....?

[Associate Justice PiT]

how the %$%#@ do you poll a write in candidate?

"un-aided ballot"...., maybe kinda....?

     I think people would be less likely to volunteer a write-in on the phone than they would in real life, since they may not see it as being an option. Perhaps you could in general tell them that they can volunteer a write-in option, which would be very helpful in a race like this.

[Eraserhead]

It makes no difference who wins anyway.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Lol. Awesome. So is McAdams becoming Schlesinger 2.0 - because imho that's what it would take for Murkowski to win?

You mean 3.0. Meeks is 2.0.

[SPC]

How come Rasmussen has been the only pollster to do this correctly?

[minionofmidas]

Lol. Awesome. So is McAdams becoming Schlesinger 2.0 - because imho that's what it would take for Murkowski to win?

You mean 3.0. Meeks is 2.0.

He is not. he would need to be for Christ to win, though.

I'm not talking of clear third place - I'm talking of just being the strongest of the also-ran minor candidates.

[minionofmidas]

how the %$%#@ do you poll a write in candidate?

"un-aided ballot"...., maybe kinda....?

     I think people would be less likely to volunteer a write-in on the phone than they would in real life, since they may not see it as being an option. Perhaps you could in general tell them that they can volunteer a write-in option, which would be very helpful in a race like this.

"Unaided" would mean not naming any of the candidates at all.

[Associate Justice PiT]

how the %$%#@ do you poll a write in candidate?

"un-aided ballot"...., maybe kinda....?

     I think people would be less likely to volunteer a write-in on the phone than they would in real life, since they may not see it as being an option. Perhaps you could in general tell them that they can volunteer a write-in option, which would be very helpful in a race like this.

"Unaided" would mean not naming any of the candidates at all.

     Which would encounter the problem of people not knowing the name of the candidate they would end up voting for, causing better-known candidates to overpoll even more than they already do. Maybe you could instruct people that they could name the party of the candidate they'll vote for if they don't know the name.

[tpfkaw]

The correct way to poll the race, I think, would be something along the lines of:

Are you planning to vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, Libertarian David Haase, or a write-in candidate for United States Senate?

Then, if they answer "a write-in candidate," ask them to volunteer the write-in candidate's name.

[xavier110]

Never trust Alaska polling!

[You kip if you want to...]

Joe Miller will win. The write-in thing is to difficult to overcome.