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Author Topic: Canadian First Nations Vote  (Read 792 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« on: November 27, 2011, 04:46:28 am »
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I'm wondering if anyone would like to help me figure out the first nations vote in the last few federal elections.

I am starting with Alberta, so if anyone else wants to join in, pick another province to start with.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2011, 04:50:25 am »
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The reserves are easy enough to figure out, of course.

If anyone has maps and figures on urban Native concentrations?
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2011, 05:22:11 am »
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Alberta results, reserves only:
NDP - 1718 - 57.79%
Con - 570 - 19.17%
Lib - 526 - 17.69%
Grn - 113 - 3.80%
Oth - 46 - 1.55%
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2011, 05:23:36 am »
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The reserves are easy enough to figure out, of course.

If anyone has maps and figures on urban Native concentrations?

Sadly I dont see any way to do this without just counting reserves.

I'll be doing Saskatchewan next. If anyone wants to tackle Quebec they are more than welcome as that's the last one I'm doing.

I'd also like to try to get some results from past elections when the First Nations People's Party ran.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2011, 05:37:57 am »
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In 2006 the FPNP took, in their 2 Ontario ridings, 6% of the reserve vote, compared to 34% for the NDP and 54% for the Liberals
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Hatman
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2011, 01:38:04 pm »
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Alberta results, reserves only:
NDP - 1718 - 57.79%
Con - 570 - 19.17%
Lib - 526 - 17.69%
Grn - 113 - 3.80%
Oth - 46 - 1.55%

I wonder if most of those Tory votes came from whites living near reserves.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2011, 01:48:42 pm »
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I specifically excluded any polls that included off-reserve areas
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2011, 01:49:00 pm »
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One of those large Blackfeet reserves was a near tie. Some people like to vote for safe incumbents who show their face once in a while.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2011, 01:52:52 pm »
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There was one reserve with two (out of 3) polls which went Conservative. The remainder all went NDP.
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2011, 03:24:32 pm »
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Alberta results, reserves only:
NDP - 1718 - 57.79%
Con - 570 - 19.17%
Lib - 526 - 17.69%
Grn - 113 - 3.80%
Oth - 46 - 1.55%

I wonder if most of those Tory votes came from whites living near reserves.

There are some First Nations that go Conservative albeit generally it is quite low.  If I am not mistaken I believe the PCs provincially when Ralph Klein was leader one most of the reserves as I think he was quite popular amongst First Nations.  Also pretty much every demographic goes more heavily Conservative in Alberta than elsewhere so if the Tories are only getting 19% there, I suspect I will be much lower in the other provinces.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2011, 04:56:32 pm »
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Alberta results, reserves only:
NDP - 1718 - 57.79%
Con - 570 - 19.17%
Lib - 526 - 17.69%
Grn - 113 - 3.80%
Oth - 46 - 1.55%

I wonder if most of those Tory votes came from whites living near reserves.

In 2008, the Conservatives won a poll in Waswanipi reservation here. Not in 2011, the NDP candidate is from their reservation, so he had over 95%. Also, last week, the Chief of the Reservation was elected President of the ABJNE NDP riding association. (My theater teacher in college was elected on the executive, too!)

In 2008, also, the Bloc incumbent was polling around 20% in Inuit reservations.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2011, 04:59:16 pm by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »Logged
Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2011, 09:38:36 pm »
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The reserves are easy enough to figure out, of course.

If anyone has maps and figures on urban Native concentrations?

Winnipeg has a map. Click to zoom and see the actual percentages - there is a majority Aboriginal area in Lord Selkirk Park just north of the tracks (which has been very NDP even in the recent narrow losses of the riding), and the other concentrations are similarly in strong NDP areas of either Winnipeg Centre or non-suburban Winnipeg North.

Saskatoon and Regina have some large minorities in their low-income NDP areas, but I don't *think* they are a majority anywhere. I can't find maps.

Vancouver also has a map but it just has numbers, not percentages. Percentage-wise it's much less Aboriginal than the prairie cities though.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2011, 11:29:40 pm »
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Too bad we don't have exit polls like they do in the US.  Then we could get the data or at least an approximate amount of support amongst the various demographics.  I know Ipsos did do one a day after, although I don't think they included First Nations, although they released some details publicly and the rest are kept private.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2011, 12:24:51 pm »
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The reserves are easy enough to figure out, of course.

If anyone has maps and figures on urban Native concentrations?

Winnipeg has a map. Click to zoom and see the actual percentages - there is a majority Aboriginal area in Lord Selkirk Park just north of the tracks (which has been very NDP even in the recent narrow losses of the riding), and the other concentrations are similarly in strong NDP areas of either Winnipeg Centre or non-suburban Winnipeg North.

Saskatoon and Regina have some large minorities in their low-income NDP areas, but I don't *think* they are a majority anywhere. I can't find maps.

Vancouver also has a map but it just has numbers, not percentages. Percentage-wise it's much less Aboriginal than the prairie cities though.
Dank U!
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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