What is the likelhood that the following people will run?

[Phony Moderate]

Mitt Romney - 90%
Sarah Palin - 75%
Mike Huckabee - 50%
Tim Pawlenty - 95%
Rick Santorum - 90%
Gary Johnson - 80%
Ron Paul - 55%
Newt Gingrich - 65%
Mitch Daniels - 60%

[Poundingtherock]

Mitt Romney - 65%
Sarah Palin - 75%
Mike Huckabee - 10%
Tim Pawlenty - 85%
Rick Santorum - 90%
Gary Johnson - 80%
Ron Paul - 25%
Newt Gingrich - 25%
Mitch Daniels - 50%

[tpfkaw]

Mitt Romney: 100%
Sarah Palin: 65%
Mike Huckabee: 50%
Tim Pawlenty: 100%
Rick Santorum: 100%
Gary Johnson: 80%
Ron Paul: 20% (linked to Gary Johnson)
Newt Gingrich: 70%
Mitch Daniels: 50%

[Yelnoc]

Mitt Romney: 95%
Sarah Palin: 75%
Mike Huckabee: 25%
Tim Pawlenty: 95%
Rick Santorum: 100%
Gary Johnson: 85%
Ron Paul: 15%
Newt Gingrich: 60%
Mitch Daniels: 50%
Mike Pence: 50%

[Psychic Octopus]

Mitt Romney: 99%
Sarah Palin: 60%
Mike Huckabee: 25%
Tim Pawlenty: 99%
Rick Santorum: 99%
Gary Johnson: 50%
Ron Paul: 50%
Newt Gingrich: 50%
Mitch Daniels: 50%
Mike Pence: 40%
Donald Trump: 10%

Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Rick Santorum are going to run no matter what. Ron Paul and Gary Johnson are linked, as well as (to an extent) Mike Pence and Mitch Daniels. I included Donald Trump as an easter egg.

[Bull Moose Base]

Gary Johnson is obviously preparing a run.  I could see him announce before the end of the year.  Ron Paul in interviews has never seemed to acknowledge Johnson's existence.

Romney 99%
Pawlenty 99%
Santorum 95%
Johnson 95%
Barbour 85%
Thune 85%
Cain 75%
Palin 75%
Pence 55%
Pataki 50%
Daniels 50%
Gingrich 50%
Huckabee 40%
THE FIELD 33%
Paul 20%
DeMint 12%
Christie 10%

Corrupted halfway through as I just tried to make a nice shape.

[Mr. Morden]

Gary Johnson is obviously preparing a run.  I could see him announce before the end of the year.  Ron Paul in interviews has never seemed to acknowledge Johnson's existence.

Actually, he has:

http://dailycaller.com/2010/06/21/ron-paul-says-gop-will-be-more-open-to-libertarian-minded-nominee-in-2012/

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I largely agree with the ordering, though I'd go a few % lower in several cases.  What do you mean by "THE FIELD" though?  Do you mean you think there's only a 33% chance that someone not on the above list also runs?  I think that's definitely too low.  There are almost always one or two surprise candidates who suddenly announce their candidacy with no real warning, random members of the House like Duncan Hunter or former senators like Carol Moseley Braun, or someone like that.  I would expect that we'd get one or two this time around as well.

[Eraserhead]

Mitt Romney - 95%
Sarah Palin - 70%
Mike Huckabee - 45%
Tim Pawlenty - 90%
Rick Santorum - 75%
Gary Johnson - 50%
Ron Paul - 60%
Newt Gingrich - 40%
Mitch Daniels - 55%

[California8429]

Mitt Romney - 99%
Sarah Palin - 65%
Mike Huckabee - 15%
Tim Pawlenty - 99%
Rick Santorum - 99%
Gary Johnson - 70%
Ron Paul - 40%
Newt Gingrich - 97%
Mitch Daniels - 65%

Haley Barbour- 60%
George Pataki- 70%
John Thune- 70%
Jim DeMint- 30%
Mike Pence- 50%

[Del Tachi]

Mitt Romney-80%
Sarah Palin-90%
Mike Huckabee-25%
Tim Pawlenty-60%
Rick Santorum-60%
Gary Johnson-15
Ron Paul-35%
Newt Gingrich-60%
Mitch Daniels-75%

Haley Barbour-75%
Bobby Jindal-20%
Herman Cain-60%
John Thune-80%

[Bull Moose Base]

I largely agree with the ordering, though I'd go a few % lower in several cases.  What do you mean by "THE FIELD" though?  Do you mean you think there's only a 33% chance that someone not on the above list also runs?  I think that's definitely too low.  There are almost always one or two surprise candidates who suddenly announce their candidacy with no real warning, random members of the House like Duncan Hunter or former senators like Carol Moseley Braun, or someone like that.  I would expect that we'd get one or two this time around as well.

Yeah you're probably right.  I wasn't lying when I said I became distracted by making my curve look nice.  I should have come up with another way of phrasing it and bumped it up.  Maybe "Random" right after Barbour.

I do expect we'll see a self-financed campaign from a rich businessman (not Trump) get in: huge ego + ability to self-fund + weak competition.  While such a candidacy would be a long shot, even in losing, they could flood an early state with attack ads that change the trajectory of the race.