VA-05/SurveyUSA: Democratic incumbent Perriello cuts sharply into Hurt's lead
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  VA-05/SurveyUSA: Democratic incumbent Perriello cuts sharply into Hurt's lead
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Author Topic: VA-05/SurveyUSA: Democratic incumbent Perriello cuts sharply into Hurt's lead  (Read 811 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 12, 2010, 11:21:44 AM »

52%  (-6) Robert Hurt (R)
41% (+6) Tom Perriello (D)

  4% Jeffrey Clark (I)
  4% Undecided

Historical Context, Definitions, Filtering: In 2008, polling in Virginia's 5th District with RDD (Random Digit Dial) sample, SurveyUSA's final pre-election poll, compared to the actual election result, was 3 points too Republican, within the margin of sampling error, and included this caveat in the analysis: "If black turnout increases from the 22% SurveyUSA shows here to 25%, the Democrat may take the seat." The Democrat did take the seat, by 745 votes. In 2010, SurveyUSA switched in this and other congressional districts from RDD sample to RBS (Registration-Based Sample, aka: Voter-List sample). RBS sample allows the pollster to know it is reaching a house with at least one registered voter. There are pros and cons to each sampling method. "Sampling" is the way the pollster draws the phone numbers that will be called for a telephone survey. RDD starts with the assumption that every possible residential phone in the geography can be dialed; RBS starts with the assumption that only those registered with the state, who have a phone number that can be matched to the address, can be dialed. In 2006, the Republican won VA-05 with 59% of the vote. In 2004, the Republican won VA-05 with 64% of the vote. SurveyUSA's RDD poll, reported below, interviewed 850 adults from VA-05, of whom 780 were registered to vote, and of whom, SurveyUSA determined that 613 had already cast a ballot, or were likely to do so on or before election day. The results from today's RDD poll are not backwards comparable to SurveyUSA's previous releases, and therefore do not contain interactive tracking graphs. It is incorrect to infer that Perriello has gained 12 points since SurveyUSA's last release.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=932d4414-8e69-4f0f-8df1-e5d732205b07&c=77
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2010, 11:27:48 AM »

Sounds more likely than the blowout they were showing before.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2010, 11:42:51 AM »

He's up 56-39 using the RBS sampling.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2010, 01:01:14 PM »

Cool but he's still doomed... so yeah.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2010, 02:31:27 PM »

Cool but he's still doomed... so yeah.

It could be good news for Connolly and Nye, though.  Connolly is heavily favored and Nye is still in the game.
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