What the odds of the following scenarios?

[Meeker]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 20%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate  - 45%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 10%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 55%

[tpfkaw]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate

5%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate

50%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate

5%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate

40%

[Brittain33]

My very scientific numbers

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate

5%

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50%

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0%

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45%

[Eraserhead]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 15%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate - 50%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 5%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 30%

Something like that.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 20%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate  - 45%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 10%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 55%

20 + 45 + 10 + 55 = 130

[tpfkaw]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 20%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate - 55%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 5%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 30%

20+55+5+30 = 110

[tmthforu94]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 10%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate - 45%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 10%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 35%

[Eraserhead]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 20%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate - 55%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 5%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 30%

20+55+5+30 = 110

I did say "something like that". At least I was closer than jmfcst.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate -- 20%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate -- 55%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate -- 5%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate -- 20%

[Boris]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 10%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate - 50%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 0%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 40%

[SPC]

I haven't run an updated simulation yet but I can make an educated guess:
Democrats keep both the House and the Senate 10

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate 55

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate 0

Democrats lose both the House and the Senat 35

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 20%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate  - 45%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 10%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 55%

20 + 45 + 10 + 55 = 130

well, i guess they are mutually exclusive, so...

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 9%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate  - 35%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 1%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 55%

[Phony Moderate]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate - 25%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate - 50%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate - 15%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate - 45%

[Ronnie]

Approximately:

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate -- 20%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate -- 45%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate -- 10%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate -- 25%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate: 20%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate: 40%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate: 8%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate: 32%

[SPQR]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate -- 25%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate -- 55%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate -- 1%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate -- 19%

[Nichlemn]

Going by 538/Intrade, it's about 25% for the Democrats to keep the House or lose the Senate. It seems extraordinary unlikely for the Democrats to lose the Senate but keep the House though. How are you people saying 10, 15% getting that? If the macro environment is strong enough for a 10+ seat GOP gain in the Senate, it should be strong enough for a 60+ seat GOP gain in the House. What you would therefore need is a bunch of localised results countering the trend in both houses. The thing is though, the higher visibility Senate races are presumably more likely to be easier to localise, and localisation tends to benefit the Democrats.

[The Vorlon]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate = 10%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate = 60%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate = 5%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate = 25%

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate: 40%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate: 25%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate: 5%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate: 30%

[rbt48]

Democrats keep both the House and the Senate: 10%

Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate: 60%

Democrats keep the House but lose the Senate: 5%

Democrats lose both the House and the Senate: 25%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

55 GOP House
35 GOP house and senate
5 either way.