Early/absentee voting news, anecdotes, rumors etc dump

[rob in cal]

I'm fascinated by the increase in early voting or no-excuse absentee voting.  Around 35 to 40 % of all ballots cast in this election may very well fall into this category.
From what I can tell a lot of states offer early voting but it is limited, in terms of where the locations are, hours etc.  Other states, such as Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, Illinois, Nevada and others offer a pretty decent amount of early voting locations.
      Concerning absentee voting, it seems that California, Florida, Arizona, and the two mostly mail only states of Oregon and Washington are the leaders.  I did read that Illinois is just getting into the no-excuse  absentee voting group this election.
     According to the early voting information center website, the following states see a majority of votes cast before election day, either by absentee or early in person voting:
Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Washington.
I believe California is around 40%, don't know about Ohio and Illinois.  Two big notable holdouts are Pennsylvania and New York,  neither of which have big absentee or early voting.

Florida is intresting because each county will do a daily update on daily turnout for early voting once it starts on the 18th.  I did find on the Pasco county website a daily update chart which shows how many absentee votes have already been returned. Right now, about 4400 votes have been returned, which amounts to 1.5% of total Pasco county registered voters.
Also, once we get more data about Florida in the days ahead, the whole issue of whether Meek or Crist should get out of the race can be analysed in terms of how many have already voted anyway.
I did read one commentary about the Arizona congressional races that most of the absentee voters have already voted.  This I find dubious as ballots just went out a little over a week ago, I believe, and I don't think people get to them right away.
Survey USA is the only polling firm that I know of that will release in its crosstabs just how many respondents claim to have already voted.  From what I remember in 2008, early voting in many states leaned extra Democrat, because the Obama campaign did a got job with getting its voters to the polls, and probably the memory of the 2004 Ohio long lines, and 2000 Florida debacles.  Traditionally the absentee vote in California has always been more Republican (which is why in a close overall race the Republican candidate will usually jump out to an early lead, and then see that lead lessen or vaporize, historically anyway).  I believe as more and more people sign up for permanent absentee voter status  (wife and mom do so), this is less and less the case.
Anyway, over the next week most of the heavy hitters in the world of early voting are going to get into the act, with Tennessee tomorrow, and Nevada, Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois soon after ( Illinois has some early voting already, but the mass opening of voting locations starts in a few days.)
     

[rob in cal]

A little update on Florida.  Pasco county is updating their site daily with returned absentee ballots.  As of this morning they are reporting about 6300 ballots returned, representing 2.1 % of total registered voters in the county.  We can't be certain that this pattern is going on throughout the state, but it does provide us with a little glimpse into whats happening.  This is especially significant due to the question of whether Meek or Crist should get out of the race, as perhaps close to 3% of the total votes cast may already have been. (assuming a two third turnout of registered voters).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Iowa is tracking the number of absentee ballots requested and received:

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2010/genabsenteetotals.pdf

Currently the number of absentee ballots requested is about 250,000, broken down to 46% D, 37% R, 17% I, while the number returned is just under 120,000, broken down to 50% D, 35% R, 15% I.

[cinyc]

Iowa is tracking the number of absentee ballots requested and received:

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2010/genabsenteetotals.pdf

Currently the number of absentee ballots requested is about 250,000, broken down to 46% D, 37% R, 17% I, while the number returned is just under 120,000, broken down to 50% D, 35% R, 15% I.

For comparison, voter registration is 34% D, 31% R, 35% I.   The 1998 Iowa exits for Senate (the last off-year available) were 34% D, 36% R, 30% I.  The 2008 Iowa exits were 34% D, 33% R, 33% I.

What I can't find yet is the most relevant number - the composition of prior year absentees.

[Shilly]

According to this page, as far as I can tell the absentee breakdown in 2008 was:

Democrats: 250,104 45.86%

Republicans: 156,986 28.78%

No Party: 138,328 25.36%

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2008/08StatReportStatewide.pdf

[Tender Branson]

So, until now, the returns are 2% more Republican than in 2008. Good to know.

[cinyc]

So, until now, the returns are 2% more Republican than in 2008. Good to know.

We might as well try to compile a database for all available years for all states.

Here's Iowa for the rest of the 2000s:

2000:
Democrats     107,505      38.83%  
Republicans  109,827      39.67%    
No Party      59,504       21.49%
Total Absentees Voted:  276,836

2002:
Democrats     116,517      48.08%  
Republicans    87,344      36.04%    
No Party       38,496      15.88%
Total Absentees Voted:  242,357

2004:
Democrats     193,766   42.12%  
Republicans  141,196      30.69%    
No Party     125,097      27.19%
Total Absentees Voted: 460,059
               
2006:
Democrats     109,862    48.88%  
Republicans   75,634     33.65%    
No Party      39,278     17.47%
Total Absentees Voted: 224,774

As we'd all expect, Independents don't turn out in as high numbers during mid-terms as Presidential elections, and, therefore, don't request as many absentees.

2000 seems like a benchmark Republicans won't even come close to beating in 2010.  Republicans lost their lead in Iowa voter registration during the decade.

The Iowa Democratic total absentee requested percentage is down about 2-3 points from 2002 and 2006.
The Iowa Republican total absentee requested percentage is up 1 point from 2002 and 3 from 2006.
Independents are more or less flat - up a point from 2002, even from 2006.

Of the ballots already returned, the Democratic percentage is slightly up from 2002 and 2006 and the Republican and Independent percentage slightly down.   But the historical data doesn't tell us who usually returns their absentees first - so this may be meaningless.

[rob in cal]

Professor Mcdonald has an awesome site for all early voting info, and he's updating it constantly. His info for Florida shows almost 300k absentee ballots already returned.  The link to Ohio has some interesting Cuyahoga county returned absentee ballot info.  Apparently Cuyahoga county sent mailers offering people an opportunity to sign up for absentee ballots (I'm guessing that in other counties voters had to make an effort on their own to sign up) and 60 k have already returned theirs.  The more votes the better from Cuyahoga county for statewide Democratic candidates, though Republicans are overrepresented in these voters.

His Illinois link from Cook County elections had 6,500 voters yesterday, todays update up to close to 10,000.




http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2010.html

[Tender Branson]

It could also mean, in the case of Iowa, that Democrats use absentee ballots at the same rate like in previous elections. That doesn´t tell us anything about the overall partsian composition though. Because election day voters could still end up being - lets say - 10% more Republican compared to 5% more Republican in 2008.

[Meeker]

All the major counties in Washington post daily updates about how many ballots they've received. We don't have registration by party though so you'll only get raw turnout statistics.

[rob in cal]

Professor Mcdonalds site is becoming a gold mine for this stuff.  Tennessee through three days of early voting has hit 120k voters, Cook County 13,500 (about 4k a day) and Cuyahoga County is at 75k absentee ballots returned.  Also, Pasco County Florida which was at around 4,000 votes returned on Monday is now at close to 8,000, about 2.5% of the total registered voters.
  Nevada opens a huge amount of early voting offices today.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/10/19/748301/white-gop-men-stand-out-in-early.html

From Drudge on North Carolina early voting...

[Meeker]

http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/10/19/748301/white-gop-men-stand-out-in-early.html

From Drudge on North Carolina early voting...

So the excited people are voting early this year just liked the excited people voted early in 2008.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/10/19/748301/white-gop-men-stand-out-in-early.html

From Drudge on North Carolina early voting...

So the excited people are voting early this year just liked the excited people voted early in 2008.

The question remaining is - will it be like 2008 where the most excited people also turned out the most?

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43835.html

On NV early turnout from Politico...

[Brittain33]

Strong Turnout for Democrats in Early Voting

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/21/politics/main6977597.shtml

[Torie]

Odd headline, since the GOP is doing better than their registration share everywhere mentioned in the article, and sometimes substantially better, such as in Washoe County.

[rob in cal]

In 2008 general election early voting in Clark County Nevada had 391k voters, with a registration split of 52% Dem and 30.6 % GOP, in Washoe 101k voters, split of 47% Dems and 35% GOP, this year so far its Dems leading in Clark about 47 to 39, and GOP leading in Washoe by 47 to 40% or so.  The party percentage seems to holding at about the same rate over the whole voting period so far.

[cinyc]

From another thread:

Early voting: http://www.accessclarkcounty.com/depts/election/english/Pages/home.aspx
New registrations: http://media.lasvegassun.com/media/pdfs/blogs/documents/2010/10/21/CCVP-2010-Q3_FINAL.pdf (showing great things for Democrats)

Showing great things for Democrats?  Hardly.  In 2008, the Clark County Early voters were 52.0% registered Democrats, 30.6% Republicans and 17.4% independents.  If my math is right, Obama ended up winning about 64% of the two-party Clark County early vote.

So far this cycle, Clark County Early voters are 46.3% Democrats, 38.0% Republicans and 15.6% independents.  Democrats are down 5.7 points from 2008, Republicans up 7.4 points and Independents down 1.8 points - a major swing away from the Democrats in the early voting composition.  And if my math is right, in 2008, Obama did about 9 points better in the Clark County Early Vote than the election day tally.  If a similar pattern persists in 2010, Harry Reid might not even win Clark County, let alone the rest of the state.

[cinyc]

From another thread:

Early voting: http://www.accessclarkcounty.com/depts/election/english/Pages/home.aspx
New registrations: http://media.lasvegassun.com/media/pdfs/blogs/documents/2010/10/21/CCVP-2010-Q3_FINAL.pdf (showing great things for Democrats)

Showing great things for Democrats?  Hardly.  In 2008, the Clark County Early voters were 52.0% registered Democrats, 30.6% Republicans and 17.4% independents.  If my math is right, Obama ended up winning about 64% of the two-party Clark County early vote.

So far this cycle, Clark County Early voters are 46.3% Democrats, 38.0% Republicans and 15.6% independents.  Democrats are down 5.7 points from 2008, Republicans up 7.4 points and Independents down 1.8 points - a major swing away from the Democrats in the early voting composition.  And if my math is right, in 2008, Obama did about 9 points better in the Clark County Early Vote than the election day tally.  If a similar pattern persists in 2010, Harry Reid might not even win Clark County, let alone the rest of the state.

Comparing 2010 to 2008 is not the best practice for a variety of reasons. These numbers are improvements for Democrats when comparing 2010 to 2006, which is very important. Besides there's still time for these numbers to shift and with an Obama event being scheduled, and Reid about to bus in voters I expect them to.

I think your problem is making the assumption that the patterns this year are going to be the same as 2008. Obama did so well among early voters and so poorly in comparison among same day voters because his campaign pushed unbelievably hard on early voting. If you look at the numbers for 2008, they are insane.

The numbers that worry me are the ones coming out of Washoe...

1) I'm not sure where you're getting your 2006 numbers from, but if all the voting tracks 2006, Reid loses big.  In the only major federal race of the 2006 cycle, Republican Senator John Ensign won Clark County 52-44 and statewide 55-40.  That's hardly a pattern Reid wants to repeat.

2) And the Reid campaign isn't trying to push hard on early voting, too?

3) The fact is that, as of right now, a higher percentage of Clark County registered Republicans (11.7%) have turned out to vote than registered Democrats (10.3%) or No/Minor Party Members (7.5%).  That pattern persists in every Clark County State Assembly District except 20 and 21.   If that gap were to persist statewide, as many Democrats have voted as Republicans.  Since Independents have been leaning toward the Republicans this cycle, Reid loses.

I repeat - the early voting figures don't look great for Harry Reid.

[Phony Moderate]

Not the best idea in the world....really.

[cinyc]

Not the best idea in the world....really.

What's not the best idea in the world?

[Dan the Roman]

Everyone is missing the story of the Iowa and Nevada numbers. The story is not the margin but what is changing day by day.

At the beginning of the week, Republicans lead Democrats by 11 points in Washoe and trailed by only 5 in Clark. Today they lead by 7 points in Washoe and trail by 8.3% in Clark. They have gained every single day of the early voting period.

What seems to be happening is that a massive enthusiasm gap is battling a vastly superior Reid GOTV operation, with the latter playing a bit of the tortoise to the GOP's hare. If this continues, the Democrats should end up with a 10-11 point lead in Clark, and near parity in Washoe. Of course that would be a big iff, but it is the interesting question, at least as much as raw margins today.

Of course those looking for a real Democratic implosion should look to places with no major GOTV effort like Florida or Maine. Those numbers are 1894-esqe.

[rob in cal]

In SUSA poll out today, Reichert has a 9 point lead among the 33% who say they've already voted. 

[Dan the Roman]

Clark County's Totals for October 21st:

14492 Votes total

6881 47.5% Democratic
5301 36.6% Republican
2310 15.9% Others

Overall(including mail ballots)

50,569 46.8% Democrats
41,136 38.1% Republicans
16,261 15.1% Others