CA-11: SurveyUSA: Democratic Incumbent Down By 6
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  CA-11: SurveyUSA: Democratic Incumbent Down By 6
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Author Topic: CA-11: SurveyUSA: Democratic Incumbent Down By 6  (Read 1109 times)
cinyc
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« on: October 12, 2010, 09:37:01 PM »

CA-11: SurveyUSA for KPIX TV:

Harmer (R)            - 48%
McNerney (D)(i)     -42%
Christensen (AIP)  -  4%
Undecided              - 5%

October 8-11; 624 LVs; MOE +/-4%

McNerney leads among those who have already voted, 48-46%.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2010, 09:40:18 PM »

Bummer.
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2010, 09:44:14 PM »

The district over from mine. McNerney's a good guy (I've met him), but I don't think he can withstand the wave. If you remember Harmer's name, it is because he was up against Garamendi last year in the CA-10 special election. I am in the media market, and I can acknowledge that I have seen far more from McNerney's campaign (both negative and positive) then Harmer's. Just my two cents, though.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2010, 09:58:59 PM »

     Haven't seen it polled in a long time, though the consensus seemed to be advantage McNerney. This is definitely a change from that, though it is unlikely we will get another poll to confirm it before election day.
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2010, 10:05:38 PM »

     Haven't seen it polled in a long time, though the consensus seemed to be advantage McNerney. This is definitely a change from that, though it is unlikely we will get another poll to confirm it before election day.

Silver's math gave Harmer a 54% chance of taking the seat before this poll, but most polling before this seemed to indicate that the race was either tied or McNerney was inches ahead. I'm not sure whether to trust it or not, but my gut says Harmer pulls it out. We'll see, though. We have to remember that this district swings in different directions based on their mood. Voted for Bush twice, then gave Obama 53% of the vote. Voted for Schwarzenegger twice, and Simon. It voted to re-elect Feinsten and Boxer.

I am very curious to see how this race turns out, and especially how the gubernatorial and senatorial candidates perform here.
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Sbane
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2010, 01:27:44 AM »

The district over from mine. McNerney's a good guy (I've met him), but I don't think he can withstand the wave. If you remember Harmer's name, it is because he was up against Garamendi last year in the CA-10 special election. I am in the media market, and I can acknowledge that I have seen far more from McNerney's campaign (both negative and positive) then Harmer's. Just my two cents, though.

You have seen ads from either campaign? I have seen none. Anyways, this one should be close on election night. Sometimes I think Mcnerney will win, but sometimes I think Harmer will ride the wave to victory. It will depend on Latino turnout in San Joaquin County, and this poll assumes that it will be low. And I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2010, 01:29:01 AM »

     Haven't seen it polled in a long time, though the consensus seemed to be advantage McNerney. This is definitely a change from that, though it is unlikely we will get another poll to confirm it before election day.

I wouldn't be so sure that we won't see another poll.  Ultimately, it depends on whether KPIX wants SUSA to poll the race closer to election day.  And there are always strategically leaked internals.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2010, 07:05:50 AM »

This makes all the sense in the world considering the nature of the year. It's an R+1 district that's probably more Republican than that R+1 makes it sound.
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Sbane
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2010, 10:55:29 AM »

This makes all the sense in the world considering the nature of the year. It's an R+1 district that's probably more Republican than that R+1 makes it sound.

Why do you think it's more Republican than R+1? It was about R+1 in 2000, the last "normal" election. Bush overperformed here in 2004 and Obama overperformed in 2008. It was actually D+1 in 2008. No doubts the district has swung back a bit more than the national average, probably right back to R+1. And if the Democrat is down by 6 in a R+1 district, assuming an uniform swing, the Democrats should by down by about 4 nationally. That is right about the margin expected by most.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2010, 11:00:55 AM »

The Contra Costa and Alameda portions lean Democratic, while the San Joaquin portion leans Republican, with most of that GOP margin being in Lodi. It's a pretty balanced district.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2010, 11:56:44 AM »

I like how the AIP (American Independent Party) candidate, who is getting about 5 % in the poll, wins about equal support across the ideological spectrum when he is the most right wing of the three candidates.  Also intriguing is the 5% of the already voted section (9% of total polled) who are undecided on who they voted for.
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2010, 01:26:49 PM »

Also intriguing is the 5% of the already voted section (9% of total polled) who are undecided on who they voted for.

I think that's translated "Yes, I already voted, but it's none of your %&^&$ business who I voted for, pollbot!"
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