NJ-12/Monmouth: Rep. Holt (D) leads by 5

[Tender Branson]

51% Rush Holt (D)
46% Scott Sipprelle (R)

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 630
likely voters from October 9 to 12, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.9 percent.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP37_NJ12.pdf

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Interesting -- always considered this something of a sleeper. Siprelle isn't exactly loaded, but he's got enough money -- $300k -- to actually make something of a race.

[cinyc]

Interesting -- always considered this something of a sleeper. Siprelle isn't exactly loaded, but he's got enough money -- $300k -- to actually make something of a race.

$300K in the New York AND Philly TV markets isn't going to go all that far.  And the district is in both markets.

[Rowan]

Sipprelle is a really smart guy and probably would be a great congressman, just happens to be running in the wrong district though.

[bullmoose88]

Sipprelle is a really smart guy and probably would be a great congressman, just happens to be running in the wrong district though.

Probably pretty tough to outsmart a 5 time Jeopardy champion who holds a PhD in physics.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Interesting -- always considered this something of a sleeper. Siprelle isn't exactly loaded, but he's got enough money -- $300k -- to actually make something of a race.

$300K in the New York AND Philly TV markets isn't going to go all that far.  And the district is in both markets.

It's a little light for network, but plenty for cable.

When you put everything together, it looks like Siprelle (a self-funder) has raised about 75% of what Holt has. So if Siprelle is too poor for network, so too is Holt.

[cinyc]

Interesting -- always considered this something of a sleeper. Siprelle isn't exactly loaded, but he's got enough money -- $300k -- to actually make something of a race.

$300K in the New York AND Philly TV markets isn't going to go all that far.  And the district is in both markets.

It's a little light for network, but plenty for cable.

When you put everything together, it looks like Siprelle (a self-funder) has raised about 75% of what Holt has. So if Siprelle is too poor for network, so too is Holt.

Yeah - which doesn't reach those who have satellite, antenna or TelCo systems, or mainly watch the networks - but should be adequate.  And it will buy a ton of mailers.

Holt's ads (or at least the DCCC's) have been on NYC TV in past cycles, as have his opponents' (or the NRCC's).  There's been nothing so far this cycle, as far as I remember.  But the Bergen County Dems are advertising for the Bergen County Exec race - which I always find bizarre.

[Mr.Phips]

Trenton and Mercer county will likely save Holt.  In the pre-2001 NJ-12 that included all of Hunterdon county and none of Trenton, Holt would be toast.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Trenton and Mercer county will likely save Holt.  In the pre-2001 NJ-12 that included all of Hunterdon county and none of Trenton, Holt would be toast.

True -- NJ-12 has the only part of New Jersey that trended Democratic during Christie's 2009 election.