PA-08/Monmouth: Rep. Murphy (D) losing
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  PA-08/Monmouth: Rep. Murphy (D) losing
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Author Topic: PA-08/Monmouth: Rep. Murphy (D) losing  (Read 1253 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 14, 2010, 11:24:39 AM »

51% Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
46% Patrick Murphy (D)

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 646
likely voters from October 11 to 13, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.9 percent.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP37_PA08.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2010, 11:25:11 AM »

So ?

The Democrats are losing at least 5 seats in PA this year ?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2010, 11:28:17 AM »

Smiley
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2010, 11:28:41 AM »

What's still kind of interesting is that the DCCC is not on the air in Philly at all (PA-07, PA-08, NJ-03), yet.  NJ-03 I'm sure is because Adler has tons of money.  The others - well, I have some questions...
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2010, 11:32:02 AM »

This is actually closer than I expected, but I'm more surprised the DCCC isn't on the air in PA-7 (given how close polls have been showing that race).
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2010, 11:38:22 AM »

The Democrats are losing at least 5 seats in PA this year ?

That's my best guess right now. Looks like the GOP will pick up districts 3, 7, 8, 10, and 11, with an outside shot at grabbing PA-12. PA-4 and PA-17 are longshots, but both are worth monitoring for the "how did Dems lose that one" race that's likely to happen somewhere on Nov. 2 ...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2010, 01:07:43 PM »

True, but there will probably be at least one 'wtf? a hold?' result somewhere also. Not everything will break the way that you prefer Smiley
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2010, 01:28:02 PM »

True, but there will probably be at least one 'wtf? a hold?' result somewhere also. Not everything will break the way that you prefer Smiley

I re-examined 2006 and 2008 - here were my wtf? holds & losses (i.e. not tossup, though Lean incumbent party (R) is not a wtf? in my book)

2006 - wtf hold
Lean D
7. OH-15*

2006 - wtf loss - note that I had both IA-02 and NY-19 in Lean R (woot!)
Likely R
64. NH-01

In 2008, I didn't really have a wtf? list, so here's what I missed:
AK-AL (not wtf?)
CA-04* (not wtf?)
FL-25 (not wtf?)
IL-10 (not wtf?)
IN-03 (not wtf - was a little out on the limb here)
LA-06 (not wtf?)
MD-01 (not wtf?)
MN-06 (not wtf?)
NE-02 (not wtf?)
OH-01 (not wtf?)
PA-11 (not wtf?)
VA-02 (a little wtf? after 2006)
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2010, 05:36:12 PM »

True, but there will probably be at least one 'wtf? a hold?' result somewhere also. Not everything will break the way that you prefer Smiley

I re-examined 2006 and 2008 - here were my wtf? holds & losses (i.e. not tossup, though Lean incumbent party (R) is not a wtf? in my book)

2006 - wtf hold
Lean D
7. OH-15*

2006 - wtf loss - note that I had both IA-02 and NY-19 in Lean R (woot!)
Likely R
64. NH-01

In 2008, I didn't really have a wtf? list, so here's what I missed:
AK-AL (not wtf?)
CA-04* (not wtf?)
FL-25 (not wtf?)
IL-10 (not wtf?)
IN-03 (not wtf - was a little out on the limb here)
LA-06 (not wtf?)
MD-01 (not wtf?)
MN-06 (not wtf?)
NE-02 (not wtf?)
OH-01 (not wtf?)
PA-11 (not wtf?)
VA-02 (a little wtf? after 2006)

Thelma Drake survived 2006 because of Allen's coattails and a late-breaking scandal about Kellam and a 20-year-old assault charge. Neither of those helped her in 2008. I didn't expect it to flip either, though.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2010, 10:08:19 PM »

I assume Murphy will probably run again in 2012, hoping to ride Obama's coattails back in. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2010, 10:14:37 PM »

I assume Murphy will probably run again in 2012, hoping to ride Obama's coattails back in. 

Very possible but let's see how things go before we start saying Obama would have coattails.  Wink
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2010, 05:17:57 PM »

What's still kind of interesting is that the DCCC is not on the air in Philly at all (PA-07, PA-08, NJ-03), yet.  NJ-03 I'm sure is because Adler has tons of money.  The others - well, I have some questions...

I'm seeing Murphy on the air a lot here.  Bryan Lentz, PA-7, not so much.  I'm wondering if the DCCC abandoned him? 
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Vepres
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2010, 11:52:49 AM »

True, but there will probably be at least one 'wtf? a hold?' result somewhere also. Not everything will break the way that you prefer Smiley

Dems hold AR-02! Tongue My head would explode
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