VA-09/SurveyUSA: Boucher (D) leading by 10

[Tender Branson]

51% Rick Boucher (D)
41% Morgan Griffith (R)

Filtering: 800 registered voters from Virginia's 9th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/11/10 through 10/13/10, using a blended combination of Random Digit Dial (RDD) sample from Survey Sampling Inc and Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle. Of the registered voters, 633 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election for US House of Representatives. Early voting began 09/17/10.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baa3f876-6e35-4740-9dad-e013f8f2a44d

[Dgov]

Considering he was up 15 points in their last, poll, i'd call this an improvement

Though this poll is 4 points more Republican in Demographics and 6 points less Democrat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Griffith will run again in 2012 if he doesn't win this year. He's already telling people that he'll make sure his home in Salem is put in the district in redistricting.

[Mr.Phips]

Griffith will run again in 2012 if he doesn't win this year. He's already telling people that he'll make sure his home in Salem is put in the district in redistricting.

And Democrats in the state Senate will likely fight anything that makes this district more Republican.  If Griffith cant win in the best year for Republicans since 1894, he wont win in a better Democratic year like 2012.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Griffith will run again in 2012 if he doesn't win this year. He's already telling people that he'll make sure his home in Salem is put in the district in redistricting.

And Democrats in the state Senate will likely fight anything that makes this district more Republican.  If Griffith cant win in the best year for Republicans since 1894, he wont win in a better Democratic year like 2012.

The district is going to have to expand, since its population has stagnated while NoVa has been exploding. There aren't many places it can go, and it already borders Salem. I keep saying, Democrats are overestimating the amount of power the Senate Dems have over this process.

[Mr.Phips]

Griffith will run again in 2012 if he doesn't win this year. He's already telling people that he'll make sure his home in Salem is put in the district in redistricting.

And Democrats in the state Senate will likely fight anything that makes this district more Republican.  If Griffith cant win in the best year for Republicans since 1894, he wont win in a better Democratic year like 2012.

The district is going to have to expand, since its population has stagnated while NoVa has been exploding. There aren't many places it can go, and it already borders Salem. I keep saying, Democrats are overestimating the amount of power the Senate Dems have over this process.

How do the courts lean that have jurisdiction over this area?  Senate Democrats could deadlock the process and then have the courts pick a map. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Griffith will run again in 2012 if he doesn't win this year. He's already telling people that he'll make sure his home in Salem is put in the district in redistricting.

And Democrats in the state Senate will likely fight anything that makes this district more Republican.  If Griffith cant win in the best year for Republicans since 1894, he wont win in a better Democratic year like 2012.

The district is going to have to expand, since its population has stagnated while NoVa has been exploding. There aren't many places it can go, and it already borders Salem. I keep saying, Democrats are overestimating the amount of power the Senate Dems have over this process.

How do the courts lean that have jurisdiction over this area?  Senate Democrats could deadlock the process and then have the courts pick a map. 

The Supreme Court of Virginia would presumably be the ultimate arbiter (and, since redistricting has to go into effect next year for the legislative elections, would probably fast-track any disputes). It has 4 Dem appointees and 3 Rep appointees, but one of the Dem appointees is a Republican. So... your guess is as good as mine.