Why is the Press Assuming Hillary Won't Run in 2012?

[claves]

Hi folks.

Recently, I've been reading a lot of press about what Hillarry's next move will be. Not that she is a big story at this point, but I think she is becoming a secondary story as Obama's approval rating goes crashing down. Let's face it: the more he crashes, the better her chances will be once she runs again.

The thing is, everyone always talks about her running in 2016. What about 2012?!

If Obama's approval rating falls to 40% or so in the next year -- and that is a distinct possibility -- why wouldn't she consider running against him? She could easily make the case that she is the more viable Democratic candidate if Obama's approval is in the tank, right?

I sincerely think it's going to happen. If Hillary waits until 2016 and a popular Republican manages to win in 2012, there would be no guarantee she'd win, anyway. The reason why I think she's considering it is that she has really kep her distance from Obama. My prediction is that she will quit her post in early 2011. If she does that, I'll bet a campaign launch isn't far off.

What do you think? Am I crazy?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Welcome to the forum.

The press is assuming that Clinton won't run in 2012, because she won't. She could have run if Obama weren't her boss, and even then it would be unlikely.

[claves]

I would agree that being Obama's boss certainly precludes her at this point, but if she quits, wouldn't all bets be off? Besides this, I can't think of another SOS in recent history that has been engaged so little by their President. They are rarely seen together, and she has been kept at arm's length from any foreign policy projects that could remotely bolster her credentials. I know that I'm kind of refuting my own point, but the fact is, because Hillary has done so little on Obama's behalf, she's in a position to run against him without having his disastrous (and non-existant) foriegn policy foibles mar her image.

(Not that I think Clinton has any ability whatsoever to make sound sound foriegn policy decisions.)

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I would agree that being Obama's boss certainly precludes her at this point, but if she quits, wouldn't all bets be off?

Oh, if she does step down, then it's obvious that she's running. But that doesn't make it any easier for her. As soon as Clinton steps down, everyone will know she's running before she even declares, which may not be a good thing for a prospective Clinton campaign. Besides, it's a terrible risk; why give up SoS to run for president, when you may end up with neither? I'm sure Obama would beat Clinton in a rematch no matter how unpopular Obama is/will be. And if Obama is so unpopular that he does get primaried, that's not a good thing for Clinton, because she could be tied to Obama too easily.